World Cup 2018: Brazil vs Mexico preview and line-ups as Neymar looks to avoid becoming latest superstar to exit the tournament
Mexico have proven they can spring a surprise and will be hoping they can do so again in Samara
BRAZIL started to look like… well, like Brazil as they turned it on in the final 20 minutes against Serbia but Mexico’s sit and hit approach will make things potentially more tricky.
The departures of Messi and Ronaldo mean the door is open for Neymar to seize the crown but the PSG ace is still feeling his way back from that foot surgery.
Mexico provided the first shock of the tournament when they earned their first competitive win over Germany. But beating Brazil at the World Cup for the first time would arguably be even bigger.
The nation expects: In two words: The Sixth. World Cup wins, that is. And Brazil know they are even heavier favourites now than they were at the start of last month.
Mexico got severe stick for the manner of their defeat by Sweden as Korea’s injury-time heroics kept them in the tournament despite two wins. This is a chance for glory.
Key battles/Star men: Hirving “Chucky” Lozano has been Mexico’s stand-out performer and if he can get the battle of right-back Fagner then the Central Americans will begin to sniff an upset.
While Neymar has captured the headlines, it has been Philippe Coutinho who has caught the eye. His pass for Paulinho’s opener against Serbia was footballing perfection.
Weakest links: Brazil were rocking for 15 minutes or so against Serbia before Tite sent Fernandinho on for the distinctly ordinary Paulinho and locked things up. But the former Spurs flop will be back in harness and gives them a soft centre.
Mexico’s lack of a Plan B appeared a real problem once they went a goal down against Sweden. It will be the same tonight if Brazil get the opener.
Likely line-ups and Team Talk: Tite has Danilo available again after a hip problem but appears set to stick with Fagner. Former Chelsea left-back Felipe Luis will stand in for back spasm victim Marcelo.
Probable team: Allison; Fagner, Thiago Silva, Miranda, Felipe Luis; Casemiro, Paulinho; Willian, Philippe Coutinho, Neymar; Gabriel Jesus
Mexico coach Juan Carlos Osorio is without defensive mainstay Hector Moreno after the centre-half picked up his second booking of the group stage against Sweden. Hugo Ayala is expected to come in rather than veteran Rafa Marquez
Probable team: Guillermo Ochoa; Edson Alvarez, Hugo Ayala, Carlos Salcedo, Jesus Gallardo; Hector Herrera, Andres Guardado; Miguel Layun, Carlos Vela, Hirving Lozano; Javier Hernandez
Best bet: Despite all their firepower, Brazil have not been scoring with ease. So a 1-0 win in Mexico’s favour could be worth a punt at 12/1 with .
Prem Tsar in the making: With the exception of Chicarito, Mexican players have not made too many waves in the Premier League. PSV Eindhoven’s Lozano could prove the exception.
The stat that matters: Mexico have never scored a World Cup goal against Brazil in four previous meetings, although they did play out a group stage draw in 2014. The Centrral Americans have gone out at last 16 stage for the past six World Cups
Brazil will be strong favourites to progress at the Samara Arena – but Mexico have already proven they can spring a surprise.
Opta stats:
- Brazil and Mexico have met 40 times previously, with over half of those encounters ending in wins for the Seleção (W23 D7 L10).
- Mexico have won none of their four previous games against Brazil at the World Cup (D1 L3). In fact, the Mexicans haven’t even scored a single goal in those four matches (11 conceded).
- This will be the fifth encounter between Brazil and Mexico at the World Cup. Only three fixtures have been played on more occasions in the competition (Brazil v Sweden 7 times; Argentina v Germany 7 times: and Germany v Yugoslavia 6 times each).
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- Brazil last failed to reach the quarter-finals of the World Cup back in 1990. Since then, they’ve always made it to the last eight of the tournament.
- Brazil will be looking to win their third game in a row at the World Cup which hasn’t happened since the 2006 edition.
Brazil are unbeaten in their last 14 games (W10 D4), with their last defeat dating back to June 2017 against Argentina (0-1). - Mexico have been knocked out in the round of 16 in each of their last six World Cup appearances. In fact, they’ve never progressed further than the second round when playing a World Cup outside their own borders.
- Mexico are the team with the most games played at the World Cup without ever winning the tournament: 56 games, 0 trophy.
- Should Mexico reach the quarter-final of the World Cup, it would be the sixth time a CONCACAF nation had reached that stage and the first time it had happened in consecutive tournaments, with Costa Rica doing so in 2014.
- Mexico faced five times more shots on target from their opponents than Brazil in the group stages (20 v 4).
- Philippe Coutinho has been directly involved in three of Brazil’s five goals at this year’s World Cup (2 goals, 1 assist). His first ever goal for the national team came against Mexico in June 2015 (2-0).
- Javier Hernandez has only had one shot on target in 270 minutes at this year’s World Cup, although he did score from it (against South Korea).