Turkish tourist hotspot is ‘overdue’ for a gigantic earthquake which could hit with just a few seconds warning
An earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or greater will hit Istanbul within the next few years, scientists predict
A MAJOR earthquake will strike Istanbul with just a few seconds notice, scientists have warned.
They believe a quake with a "magnitude of 7 or greater" is long overdue.
The latest devastating European earthquake reached 6.2 on the Richter scale when it struck in December last year, killing 159.
But now a team led by Marco Bohnhoff from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience has found that a larger earthquake will hit Istanbul's eastern Marmara Sea.
This would place the epicentre at the gates of the city, giving people little time to find protection.
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Bohnhoff said: "This is both good news and bad news for the city with over 15 million inhabitants.
"The rupture propagation will then run eastwards (away from the city)."
That means the quake would trigger less powerful ground movements than initially predicted.
But there's a catch.
"The bad news is that there will only be a very short early warning phase of a few seconds," he added.
Early warning times are extremely important in order to switch traffic lights to red and to block tunnels and bridges.
What causes earthquakes?
Earthquakes are caused by the release of built-up pressure inside the Earth's crust.
Their power is measured using a 'seismometer'.
They happen along plate boundaries and occur when these plates move.
Plates do not always move smoothly alongside each other and sometimes get stuck.
When this happens, pressure builds up. When this pressure is eventually released, an earthquake tends to occur.
Energy is released in seismic waves and these waves spread out from the focus.
The waves are felt most strongly at the epicentre, becoming less strong as they travel further away.
The most severe damage caused by an earthquake will happen close to its epicentre.
The extent of such seismic threat depends on how strongly the plates are entangled and on the exact nucleation point of the earthquake.
Istanbul is beside the North Anatolian Fault Zone which runs just outside of the city gates below the Marmara Sea.
There is a constant swell of energy which results from an interlocking of the tectonic plates.
Just one large tremor will cause these plates to slip, sparking a quake, they warned.
It follows fears that Italian supervolcano Campi Flegrei will blow after scientists spotted magma swelling below the Earth's crust in the Naples basin.
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