NFL division betting preview and predictions ahead of 2022-23 season
WE'VE already looked at who could be lifting the Lombardi Trophy next February, but let’s now look at each of the eight divisions in the NFL.
Will the usual suspects claim glory? Will any teams go worst to first? Read on and find out…
All odds courtesy of Paddy Power
AFC North
Ravens: 11/8
Bengals: 13/8
Browns: 7/2
Steelers: 17/2
With Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension looming heavy, it looks set to be a shootout between the Ravens and Bengals. Cincinnati’s Cinderella run last season came off the back of securing a first divisional title for six years.
They took advantage of Baltimore’s horrendous injury record: It might not be so easy this time around. That said, it’s hard to look past the fact that Joe Burrow has made the leap to elite QB status – You could also argue that WR Ja’Marr Chase is already there.
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If the Browns can hang around .500 until Watson returns, and the disgraced former Texan shows the level of play we saw so often in Houston, then they have a chance to catch fire and make a surge. Pittsburgh may have to rebuild in this post Big Ben era, but Head Coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record in his 15 seasons with the Steelers.
The Ravens will run them close, but I see the Bengals winning again. The O-line could well carry on its upward trajectory, allowing Burrow to show his talent. Don’t discredit how important Kicker Evan McPherson is either, he could well be worth a couple of extra wins alone. Rejoice, Who Dey nation.
Pick: Bengals
NFC North
Packers: 4/7
Vikings: 23/10
Lions: 17/2
Bears: 10/1
There are plenty of pundits who are really sweet on the Vikings, and with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook, Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter, it’s easy to see why. But for me, they will be held back, and always held back, by Kirk Cousins. He’s not a bad QB by any means, fantastic at not turning the ball over, 100 QB rating. But you can name ten starters across the league who are better for longer stretches. Is he worth $35 million a season?
He might be without Davante Adams, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers still look pretty to wrap up this division. Rodgers is playing better now than at almost any other point in his glittering career. He’s 56-21-1 against the NFC North, so yes Chicago, he really does own you.
Talking of the Bears, they look a few players away from contention, and that’s even if Justin Fields continues to progress. The Lions on the other hand are primed to win a damn sight more than three games, but it still might be a year too soon to really make the jump.
Green Bay are a short price, but you’d think that 12 wins will be enough to finish top and that feels well within the reach for this team.
Pick: Packers
AFC East
Bills: 10/23
Dolphins: 4/1
Patriots: 5/1
Jets: 22/1
The Bills are favourites to win it all, and have the second shortest odds league wide to win their respective division. Josh Allen and co. went 5-1 against their rivals last season, losing only to the Patriots in extreme weather conditions.
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The Dolphins are banking on Head Coach Mike McDaniel and WR Tyreek Hill to get the best out of Tua Tagovailoa and make the postseason for the first time in six years. McDaniel is highly rated, but he’ll have to hit the ground running: The Patriots are up first before games against the Ravens, Bills and Bengals.
Bill Belichick is still the greatest and although New England aren’t the force of old, they’ll still fancy their chances at bloodying a few noses. Mac Jones could well be the perfect mould for Belichicks style of Football. I can’t say they’ll win the division, but a wildcard berth is within reach again.
The Jets just want to see some progress. Zach Wilson should be fit after a preseason injury, and Robert Saleh will need to fix up a leaking defense, that conceded more than 20 points on 15 of 17 occasions in 2021.
I see the Bills going 5-1 in division again. No upsets to be found here.
Pick: Bills
NFC East
Cowboys: 7/5
Eagles: 7/5
Commanders: 9/2
Giants: 13/2
It might just be the worst division in Football. Maybe not quite as bad as two years ago (Washington won with a 7-9 record), but still…
I can’t buy the Cowboys as favourites. There’s questions across the board, and Head Coach Mike McCarthy feels like a dead man walking. The Commanders are banking on Carson Wentz, but there’s been less than favourable reports about his preseason performance.
The Giants have a sneaky-good offense, and Daniel Jones, if he can fix his accuracy issues, could flourish. But they’ll need to tighten up on both sides of the ball.
The Eagles have been a trendy dark horse selection and there’s plenty to like. The #1 rushing offense from 2021 should be fearsome again, while stalwarts Fletcher Cox and Jason Kelce are a duo of anchors that provide much-needed stability.
I feel that if it goes wrong in Dallas, it could go very wrong. If the Eagles go 10-7, I can see it being enough.
Pick: Eagles
AFC South
Colts: 8/11
Titans: 13/8
Jaguars: 7/1
Texans: 20/1
The Titans were the #1 seed in the whole of the AFC seven months ago. But that feels like a different lifetime, as they fell to the Bengals, and have been overtaken as division favourites by the Matt Ryan-led Colts.
Indy are on their fifth QB in five years (Luck, Brissett, Rivers, Wentz, Ryan for those wondering) but they still managed to find the postseason on two of those occasions. Ryan seems a huge upgrade on last year’s QB and there’s still life in the 37 year old.
The Jags should be better in every conceivable way with the Urban Meyer reign of terror in the rear view mirror. Doug Pedersen will look to guide sophomore Trevor Lawrence to an improvement on three wins. They could well double that and then some, if a flashy defense balls out, led by #1 draft pick Travon Walker
Is Davis Mills the answer for the moribund Texans? Time will tell, but his supporting cast looks woefully inadequate, even for an average looking division. I feel that the order in the betting is the order that will play out, with too many what-ifs for the Titans leaving them scrapping for a wildcard.
Pick: Colts
NFC South
Buccaneers: 1/3
Saints: 7/2
Panthers: 10/1
Falcons: 25/1
If Tom Brady didn’t un-retire, this probably would have been the worst division of all. As it is, the Bucs are the shortest price to win their division. Even with O-line injuries and the Saints having some kind of voodoo regular season hex on them, Tampa should still win at a canter.
New Orleans say they aren’t rebuilding, but it’s hard to believe that when you look at an injured Jameis Winston being trotted out as QB. They should still beat up on the Panthers and Falcons, who both look totally bereft.
Matt Rhule looks to be one of the first Head Coaches to lose his job unless he turns Carolina around and quickly. Baker Mayfield could be the spark for them like he was for the Browns though. Atlanta meanwhile are continuing their years in the basement, with Kyle Pitts looking like the only shining star in a grim dark void.
No need to overthink this one, Tampa march on.
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Pick: Buccaneers
AFC West
Chiefs: 7/5
Chargers: 12/5
Broncos: 13/5
Raiders: 6/1
I was dreading this one… All four teams can make a case to win here. The Chiefs are still the ones to beat but they are looking over their shoulders big time. I’d say there are four top 10 QBs in this division and we could see some absolute fireworks in these match ups.
But I’m not going to pick the favourite, or even the second favourite. I’ve been sold on Denver ever since they traded for Russell Wilson and I haven’t had my mind changed yet. We’ve seen similar moves produce Super Bowls for franchises in the last two years (Brady to the Bucs in 2020 and Stafford to the Rams last year).
It might be a bunfight to reach the postseason but I give the Broncos the edge due to their home record (even last year they went 4-4 at Mile High) and that this season, the AFC West play the NFC West: Wilson’s old stomping ground.
The Chargers will always be the bridesmaid until they are not, Las Vegas just feel a bit short compared to the other franchises. Kansas City may be trending downwards finally; I feel that this is Denver’s time to be relevant again for the first time since Peyton Manning.
Pick: Broncos
NFC West
Rams: 6/5
49ers: 17/10
Cardinals: 10/3
Seahawks: 13/1
We round things off with another nasty division. The reigning champs will have work to do if they plan on repeating, with San Fran hoping that Trey Lance is the real deal to finally break the glass ceiling.
Arizona have had an up and down preseason, but Kyler Murray got the big contract he was after. He now has to prove that he’s the main man. Seattle feel a bit like Pittsburgh in dealing with life after a true franchise QB… At least they won’t have long to see Russell Wilson again, they face off in week 1.
Until I see a few more games I just can’t put Lance and the Niners on top. Arizona always seem to start hot and fizzle out, it could well be the same this year. The Rams and their all-star cast feel the safe bet, with Sean McVay reportedly stating that he’s as hungry as ever to do something that hasn’t been done since 2003-04: Win back-to-back championships.
Pick: Rams
8-fold Acca (239/1)
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