Today’s free horse racing tips: The Betting Spy’s top picks for Saturday’s racing at Ayr and Newbury
AYR takes centre stage for the only time in the Flat calendar and their Gold Cup looks more competitive than ever with the unusual prospect of good ground rather than the customary September mudfest.
David O'Meara has a very strong hand and it would be no surprise if he won but picking the best of his team - Summerghand, Intisaab, Gulliver, Arecibo and Cold Stare - is difficult enough, without factoring in the other 20 so it may be best to pass.
But there is a strong fancy for the consolation Silver Cup (2.40) in LAHORE.
He has the ideal progressive profile needed, just 13 starts despite being a five-year-old and his two best runs last month, when winning at Ripon and running a close second to Bielsa at Thirsk when he was well clear of the rest.
That run prompted the handicapper to hike him up another 4lb but he can run off his old mark in this 'early-closer'.
He is best on good ground. His high draw is an imponderable but it is rare for the stands' side to be the wrong place to be.
Alkaraama, the likely favourite, is progressing well but has little experience of this sort of race and that could count against him. Of those at bigger odds Hyperfocus and Muscika have each-way claims.
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Newbury host a quality card and, with smaller fields, hopefully a more punter-friendly one.
Dakota Gold looks set to be a short price for the Dubai International Airport World Trophy (1.45) as he bids for a five-timer but he has always relished soft ground and connections intimated he may have only just got away with his last run on good so, given the weather seems set fair, he can be taken on.
JUDICIAL will love the ground and comes here in good form, having won two of his last three and the defeat was when taking on Battaash and co at Goodwood.
He quickened impressively off a decent pace at Beverley last time and this race should again be run to suit.
Equilateral won at Doncaster last week but has never been the most consistent and can be taken on, especially as he arguable saves his best for Town Moor. The rest all have a bit to find.
Desert Encounter is out to repeat his triumph of 2017 in the Legacy Cup (2.20).
He comes here in good form after wins at Goodwood and Windsor on his last two starts and goes well for Jamie Spencer as he can be tricky and has to be finessed into his races - the Spencer speciality.
He clearly has a big chance but he has a penalty to carry and may struggle to give 9lb to PONDUS, the pick of the two three-year-olds.
He has chased home high-class Fox Chairman here and Addeybb, who is a Group 1 performer in the mud, on heavy ground at Haydock on his last two starts. This step up in trip will suit.
Jason Watson is one of the best young jockeys around but he would probably admit that the ride he gave MIGRATION at Sandown three weeks ago was not his finest. He will be keen to make amends in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at 3.30.
Watson held up the improving three-year-old out the back at the Esher track and was still last two furlongs out. He then swept through so smoothly that he was in front more than a furlong from home.
That enabled Hyanna to pick him off in the shadow of the post. Migration is 5lb better off today and should, given a more patient ride, reverse the form comfortably.
Forest Of Dean impressed at York last time when beating Johnny Drama, who is 5lb better off, but this looks a hotter contest.
Caradoc and Exec Chef have each-way prospects but if Migration gets the rub of the green he will be hard to beat as he could be tackling Group races before too long.
I Spy an eyecatcher...
VIA DE VEGA produced a stunning effort to make a winning debut in the mile novice event at Sandown on Wednesday.
The unraced colt faced a number of rivals from top yards who had already shown plenty of promise in good maidens.
Settled out the back by Oisin Murphy, the son of Lope de Vega looked likely to make just a promising start as he made late progress but flew in the final half furlong to get up and win by a head, showing a terrific turn of foot.
Andrew Balding rarely has his two-year-olds ready to win first time so when one does they are invariably worth noting.
Via de Vega is definitely one to watch, especially as a three-year-old.
The feature race at Newmarket is the Cesarewitch Trial (3.55) where LAND OF OZ could be an aptly-named winner as the fast-improving stayer could be a Melbourne Cup candidate next season.
He is trained by the wizard of Oz - or at least the wizard of staying handicappers, Mark Prescott - and his current mark of 87 is unlikely to be the limit of his talent.
His only defeat in his last six races was when a staying on third in the Melrose Handicap at York on Ebor day.
That is always one of the hottest handicaps of the year and the 1m6f trip would not have played to his strong suit, stamina. This 2m2f at Newmarket certainly will.
Charles Kingsley keeps on defying the hanicapper in a manner typical of Mark Johnston's horses but he may find this trip a shade too far.
Blue Laureate won easily at Ffos Las on Sunday but the favourite was pulled up there and the race may not have taken much winning.