Horse racing tips: Ladbrokes Trophy Chase trends – we help you find the winner of the Newbury contest live on ITV using these trends

3.00 NEWBURY: Ladbrokes Trophy Chase

OFFICIAL ratings play a big part in the race we used to call the Hennessy, with most winners coming from a tight band between 146 and 161.

Only the legendary Denman managed to bust that top figure in the past 10 years.

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So we’ll draw a line through Coneygree, Missed Approach, Bigbadjohn, Vyta Du Roc, Braqueur D’Or, Cogry, Potters Legend, Southfield Royale and Pilgrims Bay.

Next we look for a horse with a win in its past three runs. That spells bad news for Carole’s Destrier, Regal Encore, Royal Vacation, Singlefarmpayment and Double Ross.

That has cut out 14 of the 21 runners.

Whisper, Double Ross and Pleasant Company have to overcome the poor record of nine-year-olds and older in this contest.

Again only Denman had so many miles on the clock before winning this.

The recent form of Label Des Obeaux is a worry and he would likely be the longest priced winner in the past 10 decade.

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So we’re left with a decent shortlist of American, A Genie in Abottle and Total Recall.

It’s not easy to split the trio but this race hasn’t gone to an Irish trainer in a long time which tips the balance in favour of AMERICAN.

He is unbeaten over fences and has the right sort of profile for this race.