Will the Premier League’s South American stars fire at the World Cup? Or is English football too demanding for Sergio Aguero, Roberto Firmino and Co?
The Brazil and Argentina squads have a number of Prem players, but whether they are capable of performing in Russia is another question
THERE is an uncanny similarity about the World Cup squads of Brazil and Argentina.
Both contain three home based players, one making his living in China and 19 in Europe.
And of those 19, in both cases the biggest number are based in England.
Both have called up six Premier League players.
Brazil have the Manchester City quartet of Ederson, Danilo, Fernandinho and Gabriel Jesus, with Liverpool supplying Roberto Firmino and Chelsea adding Willian.
Chelsea also have Willy Caballero in the Argentina squad, while Manchester City have Nicolas Otamendi and Sergio Aguero and Manchester United supply Sergio Romero and Marcos Rojo.
Other Premier League South Americans are also bound for Russia.
Colombia have yet to reduce their numbers after announcing a provisional 35.
But Arsenal’s David Ospina and Tottenham’s Davinson Sanchez seem sure to make the cut, while Brighton’s Jose Izquierdo will be sweating on the final announcement.
Peru have named 24, and so have only one to drop, which is very unlikely to be Watford’s Andre Carrillo.
Uruguay, meanwhile, have named 26.
But while Luis Suarez heads a contingent of six players who once played in England, none of them remain.
Might this mean that Uruguay have an advantage?
There are two entirely opposite problems with having players based in the Premier League.
One is that the wealth of the clubs allows them to assemble squads of such depth that even international players can spend most of their time on the bench.
It seems fair to assume that inactivity has taken the edge off the game of David Ospina, whose recent games for Colombia have been littered with bizarre errors.
Much the same fears surround the two Argentine goalkeepers, Romero and Caballero, and there is increasing pressure back home for the other keeper, Franco Armani of River Plate, to leapfrog above them and win his first international cap.
But the contrasting problem is more worrying.
Former England coach Sven Goran Eriksson drew attention to it in a recent interview - the absence of a winter break plus the intense nature of the football can leave the players burnt out by the end of the season.
This may well have been a factor in the recent World Cup disappointments of the England side.
His argument gains force with the observation that it is not only England who have failed to live up to expectations in recent World Cups - much the same frequently applies to Premier League players wearing the colours of other national teams.
If this is to apply in Russia, it would seem fair to assume that Brazil have more to lose than Argentina.
True, Otamendi is Argentina’s senior centre-back, and there are hopes that at last in a tournament the Messi-Aguero link up will click.
An off-key Otamendi would be a major blow.
Aguero, though, can be replaced by a fired up Gonzalo Higuain – and anyway, it could even be that Aguero’s late season knee surgery has given him just the rest he needed.
Brazil, then, are more exposed.
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The only two out and out strikers in their squad are Gabriel Jesus and Roberto Firmino – and coach Tite makes it clear that they go into the World Cup build up in that order, with Jesus in the starting line up and Firmino putting pressure on him from the bench.
But if both are burnt out and off colour, Tite has few options, beyond improvising Shakhtar's versatile Taison as a central striker.
At this point he may regret the decision not to take a target man figure, with Willian Jose of Real Sociedad the strongest candidate.
One way or another, the Premier League will be playing a role in South America’s challenge to win the 2018 World Cup.