Champions League supercomputer reveals most likely winner with Liverpool pipped despite 100% record

LIVERPOOL look set to be top of the pops in the Champions League Group Stage.

But they are not favourites to be crowned European champions for a seventh time.

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That is according to  supercomputer BETSiE.

Following the latest round of fixtures, including Arsenal's 3-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb and Manchester City's 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, the supercomputer ran a simulation of the competition.

After 100,000 simulations, taking into account factors including all match results from last season, pre-season results and the current season results, projecting the season based on both pre-season expectations and xG earned both for and against during the season, the results of who will win the tournament have come in.

The supercomputer snubbed the elite clubs with winning heritage in the competition and has instead pulled out a club who will be triumphing for the first time ever.

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And that winner is Arsenal.

The supercomputer predicted Arsenal to win the Champions League in 26.3 per cent of simulations, compared to Liverpool winning it in 21.6 per cent of simulations.

The third most likely winner is Real Madrid with 9.4 per cent, though they are also almost certain to miss out on a top eight spot and will therefore need to progress via a play-off tie.

Spanish rivals Barcelona have fared far better in the league phase and are the only club who can mathematically catch table-toppers Liverpool in the league.

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However, Lamine Yamal and co were only champions in 8.9 per cent of the simulations.

Bayern Munich, PSG and Man City will all almost certainly need to win a play-off tie to make it to the last-16 - Bayern carry only an eight per cent chance of making the top eight after their 3-0 defeat to Feyenoord.

All three are incredibly close together when it comes to how many times they won in the simulation, coming in at 6.7 per cent for the German side, 6.5 per cent for the French and 6.2 per cent for the English.

Inter Milan, Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta complete the top ten teams 3.9 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 1.7 per cent of simulations won respectively.

Aston Villa have been one of the surprise packages of the group stage and sit just outside of the top eight following some big wins against the likes of Bayern Munich.

Unai Emery's side have a 68.8 per cent chance of getting into the top eight, but just a 1.5 per cent chance of winning the competition outright.

Every team below them have less than a one per cent chance of winning the Champions League this season.

This includes previous winners such as AC Milan, Juventus, Benfica, Borussia Dortmund and Feyenoord and would-be first time winners such as Atletico Madrid, Monaco, Sporting CP and Lille.

Every other team not in the top 20 has a zero per cent of winning the competition according to the supercomputer, meaning hard luck for Scottish giants Celtic who have qualified for a play-off spot.

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