SHOCK RESULTS
New poll predicts Labour General Election landslide of 194 seats in unprecedented win
It comes as the Tories began the second full week of election campaigning with a vow to enshrine the rights of biological sex over gender
SIR Keir Starmer will sweep into Downing Street with a bigger landslide than Tony Blair in 1997, according to the latest polling.
The Labour leader is on course for a 194-seat majority — giving Rishi Sunak the biggest electoral kicking in living memory and the loss of several current Cabinet Ministers.
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If the poll proves correct on July 4, the win would be the highest margin since Stanley Baldwin’s 208-seat majority for the Conservatives in 1924.
Sir Keir is projected to become Prime Minister as his party racks up more gains than at any election since 1945 - smashing through Boris Johnson’s 2019 “Red Wall”.
The survey of 58,000 voters shows Labour set to win 422 seats with the Tories reduced to a paltry rump of 140 MPs in the Commons.
The polling was conducted before Nigel Farage revealed he would be standing as a candidate for Reform.
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Focus will now move to the ITV debate showdown tonight, where Mr Sunak will attempt to land blows on Sir Keir as part of a damage limitation exercise.
One ex-Tory minister last night said: “Nobody in Tory circles I spoke to wanted the election over the summer. The campaign is so bad that I can believe this polling. We also haven’t even felt the full Farage effect yet.”
One Tory candidate said: “Rishi has to turn this around in the TV debates and the manifesto.”
Senior Tory strategists have yet to see their 20-point poll deficit reduced despite the PM promoting a whole host of popular policies.
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Mr Sunak has attempted to make the running with headline-grabbing policies including national service, a tax break on pensions for OAPs and ending “Mickey Mouse” university courses.
Labour’s lead is set to be bigger than that projected back in March when they were on course for a 154-seat majority, according to the same big poll.
The election result forecast comes just days after the PM told The Sun he expected England to win the Euros this summer in Germany and he would return to Number 10.
But the polling shows the Conservatives would be on track for their lowest number of MPs since 1906.
Cabinet big beasts are tipped to lose their seats in the devastating analysis by pollsters YouGov.
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt would be the biggest casualty of the July 4 vote, with fellow victims including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.
High-profile names such as Alex Chalk and one-time leadership hopeful Penny Mordaunt could see their Commons careers at an end.
Former Cabinet Minister Jacob Rees-Mogg would also find himself losing his seat.
ANALYSIS: This is the Tories' worst-case scenario
By HARRY COLE, Political Editor
WHAT a difference a weekend makes.
It was only last week the now-leader of Reform UK sat in the Never Mind The Ballots studio and said he would sit this one out - he wasn't going to run.
Now he is running, in Clacton, in Essex. The only seat that UKIP, or The Brexit Party, or the Farage-istas ever held.
This will send chills down the spines of Tory strategists.
Their worst-case scenario was Nigel Farage sweeping back in, standing and possibly winning a seat.
Their second worst-case scenario was Nigel Farage sweeping across the country, in an open-top bus, campaigning all over the place.
It sounds like now, he is going to try and do both.
He has declared today that it is his goal to take over and wipe out the Conservative Party, and make Reform the biggest voice on the right.
He says he will win millions of votes - millions more votes than UKIP won in 2015, at the peak of their powers. He wants to go further.
This is an astonishing day in the election campaign - and it was all getting a bit dull.
This is really, really bad news for Rishi Sunak, but really, really good news for Keir Starmer.
Senior figures such as Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and Common Sense Minister Esther McVey are seen as being at risk.
The polling reveals that Labour is set to make major inroads in all areas of England.
The result would be better than Mr Blair’s 179-seat majority for his first-term victory in 1997.
Sir Keir’s party are set to hold more seats than the Tories in London and the East of England, smashing through the “Blue Wall”.
The mega poll, known as an MRP, models the outcome of the election based on every constituency across Britain.
The Lib Dems are set for a boost under leader Ed Davey, going from 12 seats to 48.
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Rishi Sunak has launched his first election broadcast
In a swish video, the Conservative Party set out their pitch to voters for their first election broadcast tonight.
Against the backdrop of war in Europe and the Middle East, dictators in Russia and China, and a surge in illegal migration, the Tory broadcast tells the electorate: "By sticking with the plan, Rishi Sunak is steadying the ship and making progress."
The clip claims that inflation is down, taxes are falling, Rwanda flights are set to take off and wages are rising.
Those factors show that "the plan is working" with the Conservative Party.
In between clips of Sunak meeting President Zelensky, the voiceover asks: "What have we heard from Labour? Nothing."
The Conservative broadcast also mocked up briefing-style memos on Sir Keir Starmer and his shadow cabinet - assessing each of their "threat levels".
The Greens would double their haul to two seats.
Another MRP poll from More in Common and The News Agents podcast released shortly after also predicted a Labour landslide, with 382 seats to the Tories’ 180.
While a Labour win on that scale would not match Mr Blair’s, it would mean the opposition seeing the most substantial single-night gains since the end of World War Two.
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However, More in Common’s director Luke Tryl pointed out Labour’s majority could be smaller, as the Tories are projected to lose 43 of the seats by just four points
A Tory source last night said they did not comment on polling.
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Sun Cabinet
WHAT THEY WANT TO SEE IN TV DEBATE:
OUR Sun Cabinet reveal what ordinary people want to see when the party leaders square up in the studio. They also react to Nigel Farage becoming Reform leader.
Transport Sec Grant Davis
FARAGE has his finger well and truly on the pulse of the nation.
If Sir Keir Starmer felt that it was going to be a shoo-in for Labour, this could make him think twice.
Health Sec Bhasha Mukherjee
I’D like Rishi to be a bit more relatable. I don’t know if it’s a defence mechanism, but I do think people have really got to see him at a more human level.
Defence Sed Hugh Andree
I DO not agree with everything Nigel Farage stands for but at least he does not flip-flop and there’s no doubt that he has a personality and character.
Education Sec Carrie Ann Booth
KEIR and Rishi need to remember that people often vote for the person, not the party. They should use this to connect with the average voter, not stay on a pedestal.
Home Sec Jonathan Taylor
I WOULD like to hear a bit more about the boats and the illegal immigrants, but no one’s come up with anything you could say, ‘well, that will work’.
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