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DEADLY STRAIN
New Covid strain is between 30-90% more deadly, say scientists – but vaccine still works
THE NEW mutant strain of Covid is between 30 and 90 per cent more deadly than the old one but vaccines will still work, scientists said tonight.
The revelation came as Boris Johnson warned the nation there is "evidence" more people are dying than before - as Patrick Vallance said the new dominant variant was "obviously of concern".
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Three separate groups of experts advising the Government have looked at the impact of the more contagious Kent variant on mortality.
Researchers concluded the new strain is between 29 and 91 per cent more likely to kill infected Brits - with three different studies showing very different results.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said it could be 1.35 times more deadly, Imperial College London said it was between 1.36, or 1.29 (depending on the method used), and the University of Exeter found it may be 1.91 times more deadly.
The research was only based on a few hundreds deaths, but scientists followed them through from infection through to death.
The PM told the press conference tonight: "We've been informed today in addition to spreading more quickly, it appears there is some evidence the new variant may be associated with a higher degree of mortality."
He warned the infection rate was "forbiddingly high".
KENT STRAIN
The new strain, which was first discovered in Kent, is already more easily transmitted than the older one too - meaning it is infecting more Brits.
It's being blamed for the huge increases in cases in the UK in the last month.
However, Mr Vallance said that 13 or 14 people per 1000 would die of the new strain, compared to around 10 of the old strain.
There isn't much information about the South Africa and Brazil variants and their death rates yet, he explained.
But he added: "We are more concerned they have more features they might be less susceptible to vaccines.
We are more concerned they have more features they might be less susceptible to vaccines.
Sir Patrick Vallance
"They are definitely of more concern and we need to keep looking at it and studying it."
Professor Neil Ferguson, who sits on NERVTAG, said today: "It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant increases the risk of death, but there is considerable remaining uncertainty."
The research was consistent across different age groups, regions and ethnicities, he added.
However, he warned that only eight per cent of deaths contain information about which strain they had had.
Sage documents released today showed that scientists estimate that the novel variant is 56% more transmissable than other strains.
HALF A CHANCE
But it comes as SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) reportedly warned that scientists are only 50 per cent certain the Kent mutant strain could be more deadly.
It is believed Boris Johnson was handed the information just hours before his grim press conference from No10 last night, the reports.
The issue was discussed by NERVTAG (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group), a subcommittee of SAGE, on Thursday and the group found that there was a “realistic possibility” the variant resulted in an increased risk of death.
However, scientists use the term “realistic possibility” when they are only 40 to 50 per cent confident something is true, NERVTAG documents reveal.
It came as Matt Hancock was recorded saying that the new South African strain may make Covid jabs 50% less effective.
The Health Secretary said there was "evidence in the public domain" that suggests the new variant is more resistant to jabs, but cautioned that scientists are still carrying out tests.
It came as:
- Boris warned "the death number will continue to be high - at least for a little while to come"
- One in ten adults is now vaccinated
- 40,261 new Covid cases were reported in the last 24 hours - and 1,401 deaths
- There were the first signs that the pressure on the NHS is easing as number of Covid patients in hospital starts to fall
- The R rate was officially below one again
- George Eustice said officials were looking at more ways to crackdown on borders and even shut them completely to stop new variants reaching Britain's shores
- Leaked documents revealed plans to give everyone who tests positive £500
- But the Treasury said they'd not even heard of the proposal and livid allies of the PM said it wasn't going to happen
- Plans are being firmed up for the UK to start forcing people to quarantine in hotels when they come into the country
The new variant is feared to have started with one person in Kent, and is now responsible for more and more cases across Britain.
Britain has seen record case numbers on a daily basis in the past month - despite the November lockdown, tougher tiers and then the new year shutdown.
Since the UK announced the discovery of the strain, it has been confirmed in small numbers in France, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia.
The UK has a strong ability to investigate new mutations of the virus - known as genomic sequencing - which is unmatched by other countries.
Public Health England have been doing extensive work into the new strain, and exploring whether it's linked to more outbreaks.
R WE GETTING THERE
The R - which represents the number of people an infected person will pass Covid onto - is now between 0.8 and 1, Sage today said.
It was estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3 nationally last week, when the growth rate also suggested the outbreak was continuing to get worse.
The SAGE today said the R is now below 1 in every English region with each falling compared to last week.
In the East of England the R may even be as low as 0.6, while for London and the South East it could be down to 0.7.
When R is below 1, it means transmission is low and the epidemic is shrinking - but greater than that number suggests it's growing.
The last time the reproduction value was below 1 in the UK was December 11 and peaked a fortnight ago when the range was between 1 and 1.4.
While the R number is heading in the right direction, experts warn that it remains dangerously close to the crucial 1 value.
PEAK REACHED?
The number of inpatients in England has fallen for three days in a row, suggesting the “peak” has been reached, fresh figures revealed today.
A total of 33,325 Covid inpatients were reported by NHS England yesterday, January 21.
It’s down three per cent on the 34,336 reported on January 18 - a record high for England.
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But most of the change is down to drops in the south of England, including in London.
The north and Midlands are yet to see improvements in their hospital inpatient figures, which are still rising week-on-week.
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