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Hospital admissions in North West ‘could reach April peak by end of October’ say leaked docs
HOSPITAL admissions in the North West could reach the same peak as in April by the end of October, leaked documents revealed today.
It came as Health Minister Nadine Dorries warned that the nation's hospital admissions will be at a "critical stage" within TEN DAYS and "we must do all we can" to stop them being overwhelmed.
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Leaked documents obtained by the from Blackburn and Darwen Council said it was "extremely likely" hospital admissions will match the peak of the pandemic within 22 days.
Infections have soared in the area, and the leak states the outcome can't be stopped as so many people have already caught it.
It said: "It is reasonable to assume no impact can be made in the increasing trend in bed occupancy for at least the next two weeks, as these cases have already occurred.
"Even if a full lockdown was called tomorrow bed occupancy would continue to rise after the next two weeks as hospital beds fill quicker than they empty for Covid patients."
The previous peak in the North West was reached on April 13 - when 2,890 were in hospital.
The briefing note warned hospital bed occupancy could reach 6,000 in the next 30 days if the numbers continued rising at the same rate.
The document has been circulated to public health officials across Lancashire and parts of Greater Manchester, it was reported.
New statistics also show an alarming rise in hospitalisations in hard-hit areas such as Blackpool - where NHS hospitals are treating up to 65 per cent as many patients as they were at the peak of the outbreak in April.
And Newcastle upon Tyne NHS trust saw nine patients admitted on September 25 and 29, which is 41 per cent of the maximum 22 patients seen in one day on March 30.
At Liverpool University Hospitals, meanwhile, the 22 patients admitted on September 28 was 32 per cent of the peak of 68 seen on the last day of March.
Alarming figures also show that nine out of the ten worst-affected hospital trusts, which have seen a rise in admissions to more than ten per cent of the peak levels, are located in the North.
These include hospitals in St Helens & Knowsley in Merseyside, Bolton, Leeds, Greater Manchester and Manchester city, and South Tyneside and Sunderland.
'PERILOUS MOMENT'
It comes as Health Secretary Matt Hancock warned this afternoon that the UK had reached a "perilous" moment in the coronavirus crisis.
He told a conference of NHS Providers: "I am very worried about the growth in the number of cases, especially in the North West and the North East of England, parts of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland and parts of Yorkshire."
And a separate briefing chaired by Chris Whitty contained the same warning.
MPs were told there would be 304 people in intensive care units across the north in 22 days’ time on the current trajectory - more than in April.
The slides also claimed that PHE research concluded that 41 per cent of young people contracted it from a hospitality setting.
The Government said earlier that in the North West, admissions are up 60 per cent from 80 to 128 in the seven days to October 1, compared to a peak of 477 on April 9.
And there were 89 patients on ventilators on October 4, compared to 60 on September 24 and a peak of 350 on April 18.
The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: "The reason we have taken the steps that we have in the North West and the North East is because by seeking to limit the spread of the infection we are protecting the NHS and therefore protecting lives.
"That doesn't just mean protecting the lives of people who become ill with coronavirus but also ensuring the NHS can continue to provide vital services to people who become unwell."
Bars in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle are expected to be ordered to shut their doors from Monday after cases there spiralled to the worst levels in the country.
But already local leaders have hit back at the proposed plans - saying they haven't been consulted and any new measures will damage businesses even further.
However, Ms Dorries, who was one of the first to contract the virus in Westminster back in March, hit back at the criticism today, and argued why more action was needed.
She said: "Those who now claim that further measures are not needed, will in about ten days from now, when hospital admissions are at a critical stage argue that we didn’t do enough.
"We must do all we can to prevent our ICUs #NHS from becoming overwhelmed #COVID19."
It came as:
- Britain is on the verge of entering more restrictions to get a grip on the virus - with pubs and restaurants set to shut in Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle
- Vaccine trials are going well and Jeremy Hunt expected them to be ready before Christmas
- Nicola Sturgeon announced an effective booze ban for Scotland for 16 days - and tighter curfew measures for hospitality
- Just 25.7% of people who were tested for Covid-19 in England received their result within 24 hours, the latest figures showed
- More details about a three-tiered system for local lockdowns were leaked today - but the top tier is still being hammered out
HOSPITAL FEARS
The number of coronavirus patients receiving treatment in intensive care units has soared by 700 per cent, a top doctor warned today.
Despite the rise in admissions, deaths still remain low compared to what they were at the peak of the pandemic and yesterday the UK reported 70 new deaths and 14,162 new cases.
Helen Stokes-Lampard, chairwoman of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges has urged people to stick to local lockdown measures and said “indications are not looking good”.
Speaking to BBC Breakfast Prof Stoke-Lampard said transmission of the virus could “get out of control”.
"We will be getting more data later today but all of the indications are not looking good.
"In the last month alone we have gone from a few hundred a people a day in hospital with coronavirus, to thousands.
"Right now we have got over 3,100 people in hospital with coronavirus around the UK.
"Actually 500 of those are in ITU beds. That's really worrying."
As case numbers rise there are concerns that the NHS could be overwhelmed by the number of people in hospital in the weeks to come.
Yesterday the First Minister of Scotland said that the country could reach the peak seen in April as soon as the end of October, if no action was taken.
KEEP IT LOCAL
The PM's spokesperson today appeared to lay the groundwork for more curbs on hospitality today, saying: "It is the case that early data does suggest that a significant proportion of exposure to the virus is seen in the hospitality sector."
However, they have yet to release any data to support the claim.
MPs from the North of England and Midlands were today shown data by CMO Chris Whitty which suggested 30 per cent of coronavirus exposure is in pubs, bars, restaurants and cafes.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham said the North would resist any lockdown unless Government worked out a plan with local leaders.
He said: “We will not have a tier system imposed upon us without us having the ability to see and agree the detail.”
And Liverpool City Region metro mayor Steve Rotheram stormed: "It is deeply disappointing to wake up this morning to reports that new Covid-19 restrictions affecting millions of people in our city region, and across the North, could be in place within days, rather than hearing it during a genuine dialogue between ministers and local leaders."
Ministers want to try and keep coronavirus restrictions local for as long as possible - as the gap between the North and South of England remains stark.
They are drawing up a three-tier system across the country to try and make it more simple for the public to understand.
Resentment has been brewing over a clear North-South divide between parts of the country with soaring rates, and others with lower numbers.
Yet all of those under local restrictions have seen their case numbers rise since measures came in.
And a minister admitted today that lockdown measures have not had "the impact we would have liked to have seen".
Robert Jenrick insisted that "the measures do work" and that if they hadn't have been put in place, the rate of infection would have been even higher than it is now.
He told Sky: "We know that, and we understand that, in some of the places we imposed local restrictions, we haven't yet seen the impact we would have liked to have seen.
"We understand that’s that’s extremely frustrating to people in these areas."
NOT WORKING
Yesterday Boris Johnson was confronted by Labour boss Sir Keir Starmer about the stark facts.
Sir Keir stormed: "Today is 100 days since the first local restrictions were brought in.
"20 local areas have been under restrictions for two months, in 19 of those infection rates have gone up.
"It's obvious something has gone wrong here."
TIERED SYSTEM
And Boris intends to unveil his simplified three-tier local lockdown code next week.
In plans signed off at a ministerial “gold command” meeting last night, Tier 1 will see current social distancing measures, the “rule of six” and a pub curfew of 10pm enforced.
Areas in Tier 2 will have the same restrictions plus a ban on households mixing.
Vast swathes of the virus-hit North West and North East would automatically fall under Tier 3, in which pubs, restaurants and other hospitality businesses will be shut.
A leaked document obtained by the today showed that they were going to be announced on Monday, and come into effect on Wednesday next week.
It also claimed that levels one and two had been agreed - but the final top tier was still under consideration.
It said: “Level One and Two measures have now been signed off by Covid O committee but there is further work ongoing on Level 3."
Sky News reported that the top tier may stop people from meeting other households in ANY setting - this may include offices and other public spaces like parks too.
The tiers have yet to be finalised, the Government has stressed today.
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People will not be able to mix households — except those with exemptions — and will have to abide by the national social distancing laws, such as wearing face masks.
Ministers are still working out other details, such as whether leisure centres and hairdressers stay open or shut.
Minister admits local lockdowns 'haven't had impact we would have liked' and hospitality is 'part of the problem'