Ireland risks economic crash and disruption to energy supplies if there’s a No Deal Brexit, report warns
IRELAND runs the risk of a “sharp” economic downturn, disruption to energy supplies and social division if there’s No Deal, a shock report has revealed.
Dublin would face a hike in its EU membership fee despite having to curb spending due to “a permanent reduction in the size of the economy”.
In a dire report the Irish Government described Brexit as an “umbrella risk” that would “amplify” the country’s economic and social problems.
Its National Risk Assessment for 2019 said the effect of the UK crashing out “would be particularly harsh” causing “potential disruption to daily life”.
The report came as both Irish premier Leo Varadkar and the EU Commission continued to insist they won’t budge on the backstop.
It describes Brexit as an “unprecedented event in modern economic history” and says Ireland is “particularly vulnerable” to the fallout.
The dossier warns there could be an influx of EU fishermen into Irish waters if the UK shuts them out after a No Deal exit on October 31.
It also says Ireland could face a rise in both legal and illegal immigration from the UK, including of Eastern European construction workers.
And officials raise concerns that being freed from EU red tape “could put UK firms at a competitive advantage” compared to Irish rivals.
The report says: “A No Deal Brexit would result in a sharp reduction in growth with negative consequences throughout the economy.
LACK OF PREPARATION
“It is clear that due to our close economic and trading relationship with the UK, Ireland will be impacted more than any other EU country.”
The report says the size of Ireland’s economy could be around 5% smaller than forecast in 10 years’ time if there’s No Deal.
It also says that employment is predicted to be 3.4% lower “in the long run” if there’s a crash out compared to Britain staying in.
Officials say the economic hit of No Deal could push Ireland’s budget deficit into the region of –0.5% to –1.5% of GDP for next year.
The report warns that Ireland’s geographical position makes it “particularly vulnerable to disruptions to the supply or price of oil, gas or electricity”.
The dossier warns “online retail purchases from UK, access to medicines and medical devices, and financial services sourced from the UK” would be affected under No Deal.
Officials say economically “the negative impacts will be most keenly felt” in the “agri-food, manufacturing and tourism sectors and also SMEs generally”.
The report also warns uncertainty around the status of the border could become a “focus” for both Republic and Loyalist paramilitary groups.
The Sun says
IRISH PM Leo Varadkar is poised to preside over an economic crash, job losses, civil unrest and possible power cuts — all of them his fault.
His Government’s own warnings about a No Deal Brexit are even more chilling than its Central Bank’s last week.
“Disruption to daily life”. A “permanent reduction in the size of the economy”. Dublin paying more to Brussels, while cutting spending at home. UK firms, free of EU red tape, gaining “a competitive advantage” over Irish rivals.
Varadkar could have been a thoughtful mediator between us and the EU. Instead, on Brussels’ behalf, he still plays the hardman over his toxic “backstop”.
Boris Johnson is calling their bluff. No one yet knows if he can force No Deal through on October 31 against the will of Remainer MPs and a rogue Speaker.
But if Brussels is relying on them, or a mythical pro-EU Government getting elected, they are gambling with the security and jobs of millions of their citizens.
Citizens who will not thank them on November 1 for calling it wrong.
Intertrade Ireland said the lack of preparation amongst SMEs in both Northern Ireland and the Republic is “a worry” and urged companies to up their game.
Meanwhile, a leading expert predicted a No Deal Brexit could cost Ireland more than £9m a day in lost trade.
Economist Jim Power said it would “take weeks to iron out the issues” affecting goods crossing the border if the UK crashes out.
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