AFTERSHOCKS
Leaked Whitehall plans for No Deal Brexit warn Britain will be hit by fuel, food and medicine shortages and border jams
BRITAIN will face fuel, food and medicine shortages if it leaves the EU without a Brexit transition deal, leaked documents claim.
The forecasts - compiled by the Cabinet Office - reportedly set out the most likely effects of a no-deal Brexit rather than the worst case scenarios.
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They said up to 85 per cent of lorries using the main channel crossings "may not be ready" for French customs, meaning disruption at ports would potentially last up to three months.
The government also believes a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be likely, as current plans to avoid widespread checks will prove unsustainable, .
A senior Whitehall source said: “This is not Project Fear — this is the most realistic assessment of what the public face with no deal. These are likely, basic, reasonable scenarios — not the worst case.”
Compiled under the codename Operation Yellowhammer, the dossier requires security clearance on a 'need to know basis' and offers "comprehensive assessment of the UKs readiness for a no-deal Brexit", according to the paper.
The dossier reveals:
- The Government expects the return of a hard border in Ireland.
- Medical supplies could be "vulnerable to severe extended delays".
- Availability of fresh food could go down, meaning prices will rise, hitting the most vulnerable.
- Up to 85 per cent of lorries using the main Channel crossings "may not be ready" for French customs, and could face delays of up to 2.5 days.
- Months of border delays could "affect fuel distribution", impacting supply in London and the South East.
- Passenger delays at EU airports, as well as St Pancras, Eurotunnel and Dover.
- Rising social care hosts.
Boris Johnson has repeatedly vowed to leave the bloc on Oct. 31 with or without a deal - and pointed the finger at the "anti-democratic" EU for pushing the UK towards a No Deal by refusing to negotiate.
After more than three years of Brexit dominating EU affairs, the bloc has repeatedly refused to reopen the Withdrawal Agreement which includes an Irish border insurance policy that Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, agreed in November.
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TOUGH TALKS AHEAD
Johnson will this week tell French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel that parliament cannot stop Brexit and a new deal must be agreed if Britain is to avoid leaving the EU without one.
Talks will mainly focus on the upcoming G7 summit and security and trade policy.
But Boris will hoping to use the opportunity to insist the referendum result will not be delayed again beyond October 31.
Even if BoJo loses a no-confidence vote that paves the way for a General Election, he would set the date for after the Brexit date.
Mr Johnson is still holding out for a new deal which could be finalised at the two-day EU Council starting on October 17.
But leaked documents from the German finance ministry say they will reject changes and believe a No Deal exit is “highly likely”.
One No10 official insisted that until the EU countries realise the error of their ways they are unlikely to start negotiations “seriously”.
Sources insist the EU’s current position could end up being a “historic mistake”.
The PM is coming under pressure from politicians across the political spectrum to prevent a disorderly departure, with opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn vowing this week to bring down Johnson's government in early September to delay Brexit.
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It is, however, unclear if lawmakers have the unity or power to use the British parliament to prevent a no-deal departure - likely to be the United Kingdom's most significant move since WWII.
Opponents of no deal say a disorderly divorce would hurt global growth, send shockwaves through financial markets and weaken London's claim to be the worlds top financial centre.
Brexit supporters say there may be short-term disruption from a no-deal exit but that the economy will thrive if cut free from what they cast as a doomed experiment in integration.
Boris Johnson says deal with Brussels is more important than sealing one with the US
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