Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy hangs on the public’s pressure to leave the EU by October 31

THE key to Boris Johnson’s Brexit strategy is . . . YOU.

He is running an outside/in strategy. If he is to get the UK out of the EU by October 31 — the defining pledge of his leadership bid — then he has to get the public to put pressure on Parliament.

He needs MPs to think they will pay an electoral price for standing in his way. That is why he is in full campaign mode: Firing out popular policies, touring the country and making big speeches.

A sizable poll bounce would mean MPs would be far less likely to try to throw obstacles in Boris’s way.

After all, what’s the point in bringing down the Government and forcing a general election if that only results in Boris coming back stronger: With a majority and a personal mandate.

Only if it is clear that Parliament will not block No Deal or bring down the Government will the EU consider listening to Boris. Right now, the EU thinks they can pretty much ignore what the new PM is saying because Parliament will block him.

After Boris’s statement in the Commons on Thursday, Michel Barnier — the EU’s chief negotiator — told EU members to keep calm and note “the strong reactions to the speech in the House of Commons”.

In other words: Don’t worry, MPs will not let him do it.

Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was predicting there will be a British general election before October 31 and joking about this Irish government being on to its fourth British PM before too long.

The thinking is: Why engage with this PM if another will be along in a minute?

But if Boris can show he is here for the long-haul, the EU will be forced to choose between compromise and No Deal. This need to show both MPs and Brussels that Boris can — and would — win an election is why he is on a campaign footing.

Boris’s speeches so far have all tried to address the Tories’ electoral vulnerabilities.

SHOW YOU ARE PREPARED FOR NO DEAL

Worried about the state of your local A&E? Boris has a hospital upgrade for you.

Fearful that your parents will have to sell their home to pay for social care? Boris has a new insurance scheme for you that will take homes out of the means test.

Concerned about rising crime? Boris wants to hire 20,000 more police officers to bring order back to the streets.

Anxious that your school is going to have to make cutbacks? Boris is guaranteeing funding of £5,000 per pupil.

Outside London and the South East and angry that your area is being left behind? Boris is promising you fast internet and better transport links.

As Boris tours the country promoting these ideas, he is also sorting out Conservative Campaign Headquarters.

Ben Elliot, a multi-millionaire businessman, is going in as co-chair alongside James Cleverly.

Elliot, Camilla Parker Bowles’ nephew, will bring some much- needed energy to the Tory operation.

He will also, with his deep network of wealthy friends, be able to sort out the party’s money woes.

This will mean Boris could fight an election if he had to.

Boris has long believed that the best way to avoid No Deal is to show you are prepared for it.

His strategy now is that the best way to avoid an election is to show that you would win one.

Top team's' northern accent

BORIS JOHNSON is heading to the North today to announce a new Manchester to Leeds rail line and to promise better transport in the region.

It is tempting to dismiss this as a gimmick. After all, doesn’t every PM say this? And Boris is hardly a northerner: He’s a London MP and was the capital’s mayor.

But Boris’s Downing Street is, surprisingly, northern. Boris might be Eton and Oxford like David Cameron, but unlike him he doesn’t surround himself with others from the same, southern background.

His senior adviser, Dominic Cummings, is from Durham, the head of his policy unit Munira Mirza is from Oldham, his media guy Lee Cain is from Ormskirk, Lancs, his domestic policy point person, Liam Maxwell-Smith, is from Stoke-on- Trent, his long-time aide Ben Gascoigne is from just outside Burnley, and his chief whip Mark Spencer is from Lambley, in Notts.

Boris’s friends in the North mean that this Downing Street really is going to be serious about sorting the region’s infrastructure problems.

These people have an acute awareness of what their family and pals back home think. For them, poor transport in the North isn’t just a policy issue, it’s personal.

It's Cabinet, but at the double

CABINET chaired by Boris Johnson is very different.

Under Theresa May, the meetings nearly always over-ran and decided little. But Boris Johnson’s first Cabinet finished early and agreed on the Government’s new Brexit approach. As one of the survivors from Mrs May’s Cabinet puts it: “We did more substance, but it was shorter.”

As the meeting ended, Boris declared: “We’ve finished five minutes early, but that’s not a crime.”

Boris began the meeting with a series of self-deprecating jokes. He then moved on to the serious stuff. The most significant moment of the meeting came when Sajid Javid told ministers to tell the Treasury what money they needed for No Deal planning, and he’d get it for them.

This was a total reversal of Philip Hammond’s foot-dragging approach to No Deal prep. As one Secretary of State puts it: “Saj basically said the chequebook is open on No Deal.”

Javid’s comments show how despite voting for Remain in 2016, he is now fully on board for Boris’s plan to leave on October 31 come what may.

The Treasury block on proper No Deal planning has been removed.

Priti has to win over the doubters

THE biggest risk of the reshuffle was the appointment of Priti Patel as Home Secretary.

This was a huge jump for someone whose last job in government was International Development Secretary, a post she had to resign from.

Those close to the reshuffle offer two explanations for the move. First, Boris’s aides think you can’t be too right wing on crime. Their view is that all voters take a much harder stance on the issue than the Westminster consensus. So they reckon Patel’s tough views will go down well.

Second, as one of those consulted on the reshuffle points out: “The Home Office is the most difficult No Deal department. You have to have someone totally committed to it there.”

Patel has been given a strong ministerial team. Brandon Lewis, previously the Immigration Minister, returns to the department as the Security Minister. Kit Malthouse, who was Boris’s deputy mayor for policing, has been put in charge of the police recruitment drive.

James Starkie, one of Cummings’ Vote Leave team who was meant to go into No10, will now go to the Home Office as Patel’s chief of staff.

The challenge now for Patel is to prove her doubters wrong, and show she really is ready for such a big job.

• James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.

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