There is a huge amount riding on Boris Johnson’s first 72 hours in Downing Street
“TIME is the greatest enemy,” warns one of Boris Johnson’s closest confidants.
They know that if — as seems almost certain — he gets to walk through the front door of No 10 on July 24, he’ll have to make every second count or have his premiership collapse before Halloween.
“The leadership election is over. We now have to make the machine work,” says one of those working on preparing Boris for government. Others are more cautious in their language, saying they are taking nothing for granted. But as one of Boris’s Cabinet backers points out, Amber Rudd’s new-found willingness to say the UK must leave by the end of October is “a pretty good straw in the wind”.
Tellingly, control of Boris Johnson’s diary passes from the campaign team to the transition team next week. He’ll massively cut down on the time he is out on the road, and instead start planning for Government.
Bounce in the polls
One source explains the move by saying that “from next week, decisions have to be taken for the success of a Johnson administration”.
Boris is a superstitious character. He has repeatedly, and to their frustration, told his allies that he wouldn’t have discussions about his Cabinet until he had got through his Friday night grilling by Andrew Neil on BBC1. But with that now done, Boris will engage with these questions.
One long-time Johnson confidant tells me that Boris has learned lessons from what happened to Vote Leave. It won the referendum, but it didn’t have a plan for what to do the day after. The result was that much of the momentum and the benefits of that victory were lost — three years on, we are still in the EU.
Boris knows that this time he must BE PREPARED. He — and Brexit — can’t afford to have the same thing happen again. To try to avoid that fate, Sir Eddie Lister, who will be Boris’s chief of staff, is drawing up a detailed plan for the FIRST 72 HOURS in Downing Street.
MUST BE PREPARED
I understand that he is also in the process of appointing several deputy chiefs of staff. James Wild, Michael Fallon’s former fixer, and David Frost, a former ambassador who worked for Johnson at the Foreign Office, are in line to handle domestic and foreign matters respectively.
There is a huge amount riding on this 72-hour plan. One of Boris’s Cabinet backers tells me that a successful first few days and a bounce in the opinion polls could give Boris the momentum he needs if his premiership is to get off the launch pad. But a weak start will lead to a failure to launch.
One of those who has been close to Boris for years says that no one should expect things to be smooth in a Cameron and Blair way. “We’re in Boris’s country, they do things differently there,” he says, arguing that “May and Cameron spent too much time trying to work out which way the wind was blowing”.
Boris is convinced putting the threat of No Deal on the table will lead to the EU making concessions. This is the biggest gamble of his premiership. As one of those advising him admits: “He really needs the EU to give him something, or he’s going to get trapped on the tramlines to No Deal.”
Boris Johnson is visibly happier than he was at the start of this campaign. Going out on the road has buoyed him up. But the really hard part will start if — or should that be when — he wins this contest.
Hunt Battle to remain in Cabinet
THIS weekend, serious discussions will start about who should have what job in any Boris Johnson Cabinet. I understand that Johnson will settle on who he wants as Chief Whip, Chancellor and Party Chairman before moving on to the other appointments.
There are a whole load of complicating factors, though. First, there is the Jeremy Hunt problem. Hunt was Boris’s preferred opponent – he wouldn’t have made the final two but for tactical voting by some of Boris’s backers, because they thought he would fight a gentle, gentlemanly campaign. But Hunt has been a far fiercer opponent than Boris expected.
Many of those close to Boris are urging him to demote Hunt. This, though, is problematic. Cabinet backers of Hunt say that he won’t accept a demotion, and are clear he regards the Home Office as that. They say that he has form on being difficult to move – remember, he refused Theresa May’s request to go from Health to Business in her 2018 reshuffle.
With no Tory majority in the Commons, there has to be an emphasis on party unity. Losing the runner-up in the contest from the Cabinet would make that difficult to maintain. The other big question for Boris is what to do with those who have opposed No Deal in the past.
Some – most notably Amber Rudd – are now prepared to accept that the UK must leave at the end of October, Boris’s position. This should clear the way to them serving in his Cabinet. But one of those most closely involved in the transition tells me that is “not his instinct. He’s asking, do they really believe it?”
Another complication is the woman question. There is a view that there must be a woman holding one of the top four jobs in the Government and that the number of women in the Cabinet must increase, going to nine. I understand that Priti Patel is in line for a recall to the Cabinet.
There is also a view that the Government needs a grey-beard, an experienced figure who can help steady the ship. Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Fallon are being heavily tipped for this role.
A legacy that May not last
IN her quest for a legacy, Theresa May has set up an Office for Tackling Injustice.
I am informed that she originally envisaged it being put on a statutory basis, meaning it could only be abolished by law.
But a Cabinet Minister pushed back against the idea of publishing the clauses necessary to set up the body – meaning the new PM can get rid of the office if they choose to.
One Secretary of State tells me: “We’re all indulging her, but saying ‘let’s take a closer look at a later date’.”
Theresa's tough to buy for
THE Cabinet may be resisting several of Theresa May’s legacy projects, but they will be getting her something to remember them by.
Michael Gove and the Chief Whip Julian Smith are asking all the Cabinet Ministers to cough up £50 each for a leaving present for the Prime Minister.
With 29 people sitting round the Cabinet table, there’ll be £1,450 to spend. There’s no agreement yet, though, on what to buy Mrs May.
Do Labour really want Jez in power?
WE all know the script by now. There are fresh revelations about anti- Semitism in Labour under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.
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Labour MPs – up to and including members of the Shadow Cabinet – express their disappointment and shame. But no one actually does anything.
An election this year is a growing possibility. These Labour MPs need to decide whether they really are prepared to campaign to put Jeremy Corbyn and his clique into Downing Street. If they are not, they will have to go their own way.
There is no escaping the fact that a vote for Labour is a vote for Corbyn and his team in Downing Street.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator