As Theresa May resigns, this is what the Tories must do now to avoid Brexit plunging them into oblivion
The Prime Minister had one basic task to fulfil – the delivery of Brexit – and she failed spectacularly in that mission
THERESA May’s tears and croaking voice in her farewell Downing Street speech were fully justified. Despite her determination and sense of duty, never has a modern premiership been more devoid of achievement.
She had one basic task to fulfil – the delivery of Brexit – and she failed spectacularly in that mission. As a result, she leaves behind a poisonous legacy for her battered and divided party.
During her time in office, she presided over the loss of the Tories’ majority in the Commons, a string of Ministerial resignations, endless rebellions including the heaviest ever Government defeat in history, and the total breakdown in collective responsibility within the Cabinet.
The sense of profound crisis was reinforced this week in the European elections, with the Conservatives far behind Nigel Farage’s resurgent Brexit party.
A bleak future now appears to beckon for the Tories.
Their death has often been predicted, as happened after the Labour landslides of 1945 and 1997.
But this time, it could genuinely become a reality, due to May’s epic miscalculations and the Brexit stalemate at Westminster.
Yet nothing is ever predictable in politics.
There is a chance that, under fresh, vigorous leadership and liberated from the suffocating grasp of May, the party could undergo a revival.
After all, the latest opinion poll gives the Tories and the Brexit party a combined total of 47 per cent, more than double Labour’s share of just 26 per cent.
Government must succeed where May failed
And as long as Jeremy Corbyn, the hapless Marxist remains in charge, Labour will be in trouble.
But for the Tories to move forward, their Government will have to succeed where May failed, and that means implementing the 2016 Referendum result.
It is certainly possible with the political will.
Our departure could be achieved either without a deal or through a revamped agreement negotiated with Brussels by the new leadership.
Given that there will soon also be a new EU Commission and a new European Parliament, the circumstances are ripe for an alternative approach.
But to make the case for change effectively, the new Prime Minister must believe in the Brexit cause.
One of the prime reasons Theresa May failed was that, as a Remain supporter, she never embraced Brexit and saw it only as a damage limitation exercise.
Boris is no clown - but he must overcome obstacles
The Tories cannot make the same mistake again.
That explains why Boris Johnson, one of the key architects of the 2016 Leave victory, is now the overwhelming favourite among Conservative members to make it to Number 10.
Without his charismatic leadership in the referendum campaign, epitomised by his barn-storming performance in the final debate, Remain would have probably won.
Boris has other huge advantages.
As an entertainer, he is able to reach the parts of the electorate that others cannot.
His enemies dismiss him as a clown, but he is actually a proven winner, as he showed twice in winning the London Mayoralty in a Labour-dominated city.
It is said that he is poor at dealing with his paperwork, but Theresa May was a bureaucrat’s dream with her diligent efficiency – and look where that got us.
If he is to triumph, Boris has to overcome other obstacles.
One is the widespread perception, spread by his foes since Brexit, that he is a racist bigot.
Nothing could be further from the truth, for he is a social liberal who actually supports globalisation and has in the past called for an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
He must also counter the belief that he is a frivolous buffoon without principles.
He can do that by campaigning hard, setting out a series of clear policies, and appointing heavyweight politicians to his team. The fact that elections guru Lynton Crosby – mastermind of the Tories’ unexpected win in 2015 - is a big supporter speaks volumes about Boris’s credibility beneath the caricature.
Above all, Boris needs to come up with a realistic plan for Brexit beyond just warm words.
The key to that is the insertion of an exit clause into the vexed plan for an Irish backstop, which at present threatens to keep Britain in a permanent customs union.
With such a clause, some of the concern about the Withdrawal Agreement would disappear, enabling it to pass the Commons.
Boris would then emerge a hero, the man who not only promised Brexit but delivered it.
Bewildering array of contenders
Under the Tories’ eccentric system for the leadership contest, their MPs whittle down the candidates to a shortlist of two.
The membership, which numbers just 125,000, then has a vote on the final pair.
Through jealously or short-sightedness, the MPs might contrive to keep Boris off the shortlist, but that would be a farce, an establishment stitch-up of the kind that has wrecked Brexit.
His name has to go forward for the membership ballot.
As to the identity of the other candidate, there is a bewildering array of potential contenders.
In fact, so many names have been mentioned and the party membership is so limited that there is a temptation to misquote Winston Churchill’s famous line about the Battle of Britain: “Never in the field of political conflict have so many offered so little to so few.”
The main rivals to Boris for the Brexiteer crown are Dominic Raab, who is more of Thatcherite free-marketeer, and Michael Gove, whose intellect is matched by his ruthlessness, having pulled the rug under Boris dramatically during the last leadership battle.
The Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who now presents himself as a born-again Brexiteer, is highly competent and shrewd, but lacks charisma.
Even Graham Brady has resigned his post as Chairman of the infamous 1922 committee so he can throw his hat into the ring.
Breaking new ground
The Tories were the first British party to have a woman leader, and they might break new ground by having the first ethnic minority leader.
The Home Secretary Sajid Javid could be this pioneer, especially since he has a compelling background as the son of a migrant bus driver.
But, unfortunately, he is also a wooden performer and perhaps too much of a managerialist.
Other possible ethnic minority candidates include James Cleverly, the Braintree MP who used to be a soldier and now serves as Brexit minister, and Priti Patel, the former International Aid Secretary and committed Leaver, though she is somewhat lacking in authority.
The Chancellor Philip Hammond recently joked that he was the only member of the Conservative Parliamentary Party who is not standing.
He has a point, for the list is ever expanding.
There is now a whole phalanx of women such as the Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, the former TV presenter Esther McVey and the ex-Commons leader Andrea Leadsom, who did her chances some good with her dramatic resignation from the Cabinet on Wednesday.
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Then there are the centrists like Rory Stewart and Matt Hancock, both of who present themselves as healers.
But the sheer quantity of candidates cannot make up for the lack of heavyweight quality.
Boris is the only one with widespread public appeal.
The Tories are in a hole – and he is probably the only man to dig them out.