West risks falling for Putin’s Ukraine invasion ‘bluff’ and could stumble into all-out war, expert claims
Vladimir Putin longs to see Crimea consolidated with Russia and it is feared that his behaviour - if left unchecked - could drag the West into another Cold War or conflict in Ukraine, it is claimed
MOSCOW’s clash with the Ukrainian Navy this week is a bluff designed to probe Western reaction and see what it can get away with, it is claimed.
But Vladimir Putin longs to see Crimea consolidated with Russia and it is feared that his behaviour – if left unchecked – could drag the West into another Cold War or conflict in Ukraine.
Two days ago Russia special forces stormed and captured three Ukrainian vessels sailing into the Kerch Strait – the only passage into the Sea of Azov where both countries operate ports.
Ukraine said it was a Russian “act of aggression”. Moscow said the ships had illegally entered its waters in the hotly-contested region.
However, it was the first time Russia and Ukraine have come into open conflict since Putin seized the Crimean Peninsula, sparking fears of another escalation.
James Stavridis, a retired US Navy Admiral, told The Sun Online that without a Western response there would be a “further erosion” of Russian behaviour.
He said: “In simple terms, if you let a bully get away with it, stand by for more. He desires consolidation of Crimea with Russia, and eventually will seek to control even more Ukrainian territory.
“A second objective is the usual one of sowing division with the West as different nations reaction differently to his provocations.
“The West should condemn this strongly; apply additional targeted sanctions; demand immediate return of the Ukrainian boats and sailors; and provide further defensive military assistance – anti-tank weapons, anti-air tactical systems, ammunition, communications, cyber – to Ukraine.
“At the same time we should emphasise to Russia that it is in no-one’s interest to stumble backwards into another full blown Cold War or provoke even more serious fighting in Ukraine.”
Russia sees the Ukraine as highly strategic. Due to Ukraine’s coast it gives Russian ships access to the Black Sea and a warm water port along its Western borders.
It is also important for Russia as it tries to hang on to its “sphere of influence” with countries on its Western borders after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Michael Petersen, a Russia expert at the Centre for Naval Warfare Studies, said Vladimir Putin had correctly assumed the incident would not be considered serious enough to spark more sanctions or military involvement from the West.
However, he did warn it could trigger more violence in Ukraine’s Russian-controlled eastern regions.
“I think it’s within the realm of possibility that violence can flare up elsewhere.
“Certainly it’s the case that both nations are on a hair trigger, right now I’m not certain there’s going to be any significant maritime conflict.
“But I do think that it’s possible because tensions are so high that we may see some incidents on the ground in eastern Ukraine.”
Dr Mark Galeotti, a leading expert on Russia, told The Sun Online it was a perfect example of Russian strategy.
He said: “In the grand scheme of things this is not a major incident, it’s not about to escalate to a land conflict.
“But it is a classic example of Russian salami tactics. This is when you do what you want slice by slice, and each slice looks trivial but it all adds up.
“If we (NATO) allow them to do that it makes us look weak. That is a worry as this is a battle of perceptions more than anything else.”
He suggested the tactics could mean a 2003 treaty establishing the Sea of Azov as exclusive to Ukraine and Russia is now redundant.
Dr Galeotti added: “Either Moscow acknowledges the terms of its agreement with Ukraine… or if that deal is in effect broken, then the Azov becomes normal waters so in that case there should be some (NATO) ‘goodwill visits’ to effectively call the Russians’ bluffs.
“This is classic way the Russians work, they ignore the treaties when it’s convenient and squeal when they’re broken.”
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