Theresa May’s Brexit blueprint is not passing the House of Commons as there’s no sign of weakening the Tory rebellion

RIGHT now, Theresa May’s Brexit deal is not passing the House of Commons.

Even if No10 halved the Tory rebellion at a stroke, it still would not have the votes.

Downing Street’s hope had been that the political declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU would have won critics round. But there has been no sign of any weakening of the rebellion.

“It isn’t the game-changing moment people were hoping for,” one Cabinet minister concedes.

Currently, the vote on the deal is pencilled in for December 12, just ahead of the December EU Council.

So, how does May quell this still-growing rebellion and win the vote?

Those close to May hope that public opinion will come to the rescue, that MPs will see voters accept the deal and therefore do the same.

There is no doubt that the country is impressed by May’s stamina and resolve. But that is different from them pressuring MPs to back the deal.

As one Cabinet minister laments: “She hasn’t managed to package it in a way that allows people to understand it.”

At the same time, part of the problem is that one of the main arguments for May’s deal is — in the words of one Cabinet minister — “it is not great but the alternatives are worse”.

This kind of case is not easy to make in public.

As one Secretary of State, who backed Remain in 2016, points out: “We all learned from the referendum how difficult it is to argue for something on the grounds that it is s**t but less s**t than the alternatives.”

One hope for May is that the wider party is much less negative on the deal than the parliamentary party is. “Association members are more supportive than MPs,” says one Cabinet minister who has taken soundings.

Once the deal is signed off with the EU, there are some things that May can say to MPs to help it get passed.

She could have ministers point out that Parliament can do what it wants, so it could junk the backstop unilaterally if it wished — though breaking a treaty like that would, obviously, have consequences for the UK’s reputation.

One Cabinet minister even intends to try to win support by emphasising to Tory MPs that they can vote through this deal and then select a new PM to do the second half of the negotiation. I am told: “That’s the argument that has to be made to colleagues.”

This kind of argument will never be sanctioned by Downing Street.

But a case they will make is that there is no transition, which businesses are currently expecting, without a deal and there is no better deal on offer.

“Jesus Christ couldn’t shift the position in terms of what the EU is going to offer,” one Secretary of State tells me.

If Mrs May can’t find the Tory votes for her deal, what about looking to Labour?

This is not a viable strategy because could May really trust Corbyn and McDonnell?

“It would be Ed Miliband over Syria all over again,” says one Cabinet veteran, referring to how the last Labour leader pulled the rug from under David Cameron having committed to support him in the national interest.

The Prime Minister is essentially playing chicken with Parliament.

MPs are either going to back down at the last minute, or her and them are going to end up in the most almighty smash.

DUP revolt could lead to election

THE DUP holds its conference this weekend, and there is no sign of members backing down in their opposition to May’s Brexit deal.

I understand that on Thursday’s Cabinet call, Gavin Williamson — who negotiated the Conservatives’ confidence and supply deal with them — warned that he saw little in the political declaration that would change their minds.

Without the DUP’s support, it is very hard for Mrs May to get the deal through Parliament. And even if she can, she will find getting any other legislation through nigh-on-impossible.

This rupture between May and the DUP means that an election within the next 12 months is now a distinct possibility.

Who will sell PM's vision?

ON Monday, the Cabinet will get a briefing on how to make the case for the Brexit deal.

It will be intriguing to see who signs up to sell it. Colleagues noted that Penny Mordaunt, the Brexiteer International Development Secretary who is known to be deeply unhappy about the deal, was very quiet on Thursday’s Cabinet call.

I understand that Liam Fox, the Trade Secretary and Brexiteer, was one of the most enthusiastic.

He thinks that the political declaration points towards a free trade deal with the EU.

One of those on the call tells me: “He was happy but maybe that’s because Greg and Philip were unhappy.”

Both Greg Clark, the Business Secretary, and Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, have pushed for a closer economic relationship with the EU than just a free trade deal.

May herself is confident about selling her deal.

She knows the withdrawal agreement backwards. Her copy of it is marked up with reference tabs and she relishes mocking Corbyn for not having read it.

Such is May’s swagger about her knowledge of the deal that there is talk in No10 of challenging Corbyn to a debate over it.

Remainers beware Labour solution

I WILL let you into a secret: No one – not Theresa May, not Jeremy Corbyn, not Boris Johnson – knows what happens if the Brexit deal is voted down in Parliament.

The legal default would be no deal. But most MPs oppose that, so other solutions will be put forward.

For example, Tory MP Nick Boles is gathering support for his Norway for Now plan.

This would see Parliament opt to take Britain into the European Economic Area. The argument is that from there, Britain could then negotiate its way to a different relationship.

A growing number of Cabinet ministers believe this is where the UK will end up if May’s deal is voted down.

The latest talk in Westminster is that a senior member of the shadow Cabinet is pushing for Labour to offer a second referendum if Tory Remainers will vote with them in a confidence vote to bring down the Government.

Any Tory MP, no matter how pro-EU, should think very carefully about that. For they wouldn’t be putting a normal Labour government in. They would be empowering a profoundly anti-Western worldview that would do huge damage to the UK.

THE so-called backstop would see various EU rules and regulations apply in Northern Ireland even after the UK has left the EU.

But this provision might be illegal under European Human Rights law. The Matthews case brought against the UK Government in 1999 established that people have a right to vote in elections to the parliaments that set their laws.

Under the backstop, the European parliament would help decide the law in Northern Ireland but without any representation for the people of Northern Ireland.

I understand that the Government’s advice is that it would survive a legal challenge along these lines. But if these backstop provisions did come into effect, then voters in Northern Ireland would have a strong case to make.

• James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.