Cabinet Leavers fear Brussels’ silence and PM’s quiet confidence means Brexit deal is done — they’ll have to take it or quit over it
IT is quiet out there, too quiet in the views of many Brexiteers in government.
Their suspicions are raised by the fact that when things go silent in Brussels, that’s when the real negotiating is being done. They fear that right now a deal is being done that they’ll be bounced into supporting.
They worry that since last week’s Cabinet meeting, there hasn’t been any new Brexit offer put either to Cabinet or the inner cabinet, yet technical talks have resumed in Brussels.
They fear that a deal will be agreed. Then, they’ll be faced with a choice of rejecting it and having to take the blame for no deal and the chaos that would involve or accepting the agreement with all its flaws.
This fear of being bounced has been heightened by Theresa May’s mood. Those who have seen her this week describe her as “astonishingly upbeat” and convinced that a deal will soon be done.
I understand that she will update the Cabinet on the state of negotiations on Tuesday.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit Secretary, is more optimistic than most Leavers in Cabinet. He has been reassuring Cabinet colleagues that press reports about where the deal is going to end up aren’t right and that the final phase of the negotiations will be politically — not technically — led. In other words ministers, not civil servants, will be in charge.
But this has not been enough to assuage some of his colleagues’ concerns.
They point out that at crucial points in these negotiations, Downing Street has presented ministers with a done deal and challenged them to quit if they don’t like it. The Chequers plan, which David Davis and Boris Johnson resigned over, was just one example of this approach.
These ministers have concluded that the level of concern the Cabinet expressed about the negotiations means that Mrs May will not come to the Cabinet and ask ministers for permission to make further concessions. Rather, they’ll simply be presented with them.
At the top level of government, they are keen to get the EU to agree to a special Brexit meeting this month.
They believe that will give them more time to get the deal through parliament. An agreement in November would also allow them to avoid some of the most difficult no-deal planning choices. For instance, I understand that at Cabinet on November 13 they must decide whether to book space on ferries to bring in essential supplies in the event of no deal.
Number 10 is confident of getting a Brexit deal through the Commons. One of those who has discussed the matter with Mrs May tells me “you can see how opposition melts away” in the face of worries about both no deal and a Corbyn government.
At the same time, the May circle believe the carrot of a future trade deal with the EU and the Government having more money to spend if the withdrawal agreement is passed will ease its passage.
But Theresa May should beware buyer’s remorse. She may well be able to bounce her Cabinet and the bulk of her MPs into supporting a deal.
But if they end up regretting their vote or are left angry, they’ll know who to blame. Mrs May will find herself facing a confidence vote next spring.
School funding a threat to Tories
“A MASTERCLASS in how to give people something and p**s them off at the same time” – that’s how one senior Tory describes Philip Hammond telling schools that they could have £400million to buy the “little extras they need”.
Schools funding is one of the issues that cost the Tories most at the last election. But the Budget did little to deal with this question: More than 80 per cent of the extra spending announced went to the NHS and there was more new money for potholes than schools.
Education is threatening to turn into a major political problem for the Tories.
A new TV series called School, starting on Tuesday on BBC2, looks at how schools are struggling to cope with budgetary constraints. At the same time, the Tories and their anonymous Education Secretary Damian Hinds are oddly quiet about their achievements.
The free schools set up under this Government are outperforming all other schools. But the Government barely whispers about this, when it should be shouting it from the rooftops.
Downing Street defends the emphasis on the NHS to Tory MPs by pointing out that their polling shows it is the overwhelming public-spending priority of their supporters. But as one influential Tory complains to me, this ignores the fact that people now only become more likely to vote Tory than Labour at age 47.
“If you want to have some supporters who are less elderly, you might want to push education up the agenda,” he fumes.
The Tories won’t win back their majority without more support from those in their thirties and early forties – and they won’t win over parents with school-age children unless they show them that education is as much of a priority for the Government as it is for them.
Could Rudd take helm at Treasury?
THE view in Westminster is that Monday was Philip Hammond’s last Budget. There are whispers in Whitehall that his travel schedule and raised international profile suggest he realises as much.
So, who will replace Hammond as Chancellor? Well, the rumour in government circles is that Amber Rudd, cleared now of blame for the Windrush scandal, might. She is a former banker who knows the Treasury well and would be the first female Chancellor.
Mrs Rudd would, from No10’s point of view, also be less of a threat than other contenders. Her small majority in Hastings and her position on Brexit make her less of a challenge to Mrs May’s position.
Hunt's French Blair dare
JEREMY Hunt is determined to banish the idea that Brits can only speak two languages: English and English slower and louder.
After giving a speech in Japanese in September, he is giving one entirely in French on Thursday.
Let’s hope that Mr Hunt fares better than Tory Blair. When he gave a speech in French to their parliament, there were complaints that his accent owed too much to his time as a barman in Paris.
Nokes is simply a no-no
AN incompetent minister in a competent department can be dealt with.
A hyper-competent minister can stop an incompetent department making too many mistakes.
But put together an incompetent department and an incompetent minister and you have a guaranteed disaster on your hands.
But that is what we have with immigration right now. Caroline Nokes, the Immigration Minister, is one of the weakest members of the Government, while the Home Office is still not fit for purpose – as the Windrush scandal showed.
What makes all this so dangerous is that Brexit will have huge consequences for immigration policy.
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Mac worse threat than Jezza
THIS week has shown why the Tories should be more afraid of John McDonnell than Jeremy Corbyn.
It was Mr McDonnell who realised that Labour would be walking into an elephant trap if they opposed plans to raise the higher rate tax threshold to £50,000.
Mr McDonnell knows that if Labour is to win next time, they’ve got to make people think that only “the rich” and big business will end up paying more tax.
- James Forsyth is the political editor of The Spectator