No home comforts to ease the Brexit bind faced at the Tory party conference
The biggest danger the party face is that they simply don’t have a domestic agenda big enough for the moment
BREXIT will dominate this Tory conference.
In the bars and on the fringe, vigorous argument will rage about what the best Brexit option is for Britain.
Cabinet ministers will whisper in corridors about what the Government should do next. Boris Johnson will draw a big crowd for his “Chuck Chequers” rally.
But there is a bigger danger waiting in the wings for the Tories: They simply don’t have a domestic agenda big enough for the moment.
Labour has, over the past few days, set out its vision for Britain. It is, in places, scary. But give Jeremy Corbyn and Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell this, it is undoubtedly clear and bold. As one Cabinet minister says, half admiringly: “They’re hungry.”
The Tories need to show they have a better plan, one that will deal with people’s concerns— and they don’t have any time to waste. As one minister warns: “I’m just really terrified. People don’t realise what a big deal this is.”
The Tory Party’s problem is that it isn’t giving the country a vision of where it wants to take it. One former party leader has taken to lamenting that the Tories have “lost the narrative”.
At conference last year, Theresa May declared that it was her mission to solve the housing crisis, to restore the British dream of home ownership for the many.
But in the past 12 months, the Government has made far too little progress on this. Yes, some sensible steps have been taken. But the policies that will really solve this crisis, proper planning reform and a massive, Government-led housebuilding programme, haven’t happened.
The result of all this: Jeremy Corbyn gets closer to power. As this newspaper revealed yesterday, Labour is now ahead in the seats that decide general elections thanks to its massive lead among renters.
The likelihood of someone in their late twenties or early thirties on an average salary owning their own home has halved in the past 20 years.
This is an electoral time bomb for the Tories. They can’t expect those without capital, or any prospect of getting it, to be capitalists.
By the time of the next election, the Tories need to show people that their lives are getting better AND explain the damage Corbyn would do to the country.
One minister points the finger of blame at Number 10 for the Tory predicament. “A fish rots from the head down,” he tells me. But the Cabinet can’t escape its share of the blame, either.
With a few exceptions, ministers aren’t doing enough to take on Labour’s arguments. As one former Secretary of State fumed to me during Labour conference: “It’s outrageous. Where are the Cabinet?”
If the Tories get Brexit wrong, it could cost them the next election. But even if they get a decent deal, it won’t guarantee them victory. For the public will vote on domestic issues — whether the housing crisis is solved, the state of the health service and what is going on with schools.
Corbyn has simple answers to all these questions: They might be wrong, but they are answers. The Tories now need to show the country they have answers too.
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Festival of Britishness for 2022
AT last, some positivity and optimism about this country’s post-Brexit future from the Government.
I can reveal it is planning a major new festival celebrating the UK for 2022. The aim is for this festival to tell the world a story about Britain as we leave the EU and take charge of our own future. It is meant to coincide with the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee and the Commonwealth Games, which will be held in Birmingham that year.
Culture Secretary Jeremy Wright, who is pushing this idea in Whitehall, has told colleagues it will be: “Future-facing, telling a story about the UK’s unique strengths, particularly as a place to invest, as we forge a new future outside the European Union.”
If the Government gets it right, this festival could be a great statement about the open, dynamic country that Britain is going to be after Brexit. It should emphasise how this country is going out into the world after leaving the EU, not pulling up the drawbridge.
The aim should be to put on something that stands comparison with the great post-war Festival of Britain in 1951 or even the Great Exhibition of 1851, which showcased Victorian Britain’s global reach and technological edge.
One Secretary of State, who is backing the idea, tells me: “People just want something really positive.”
But cynics might note that there is an advantage for the Tories in a feel-good festival in an election year.
STREET’S A SMART SPEAKER
ANDY STREET, the Tory mayor of the West Midlands, will help open the Tory conference in Birmingham tomorrow afternoon.
But I understand he will have a harsh message for the Westminster politicians in attendance. He will tell them to stop bickering and positioning and get on with delivering for the country.
Mr Street will say that outside the Westminster bubble, the public just want politicians to get on with things, rather than constantly jostling for position.
What makes his speech so interesting is that he is a Downing Street favourite. Indeed, I understand some of those close to Theresa May are pushing for a similar tone in her speech.
They believe her post-Salzburg speech went down so well with the public not just because she was standing up to the EU but because she was taking charge and being that “bloody difficult woman”. They think she should use her speech to tell members they won’t get everything they want from the Brexit talks, but that she will get the best deal for Britain.
Others, though, are wary of this approach. One Cabinet minister cautions that after last year, May should play it safe as “you can’t have two bad years in a row”.
Right to jetison foreign criminals
This is sensible. These citizens contribute a lot to this country, and help keep our economy and our public services moving.
But it is also right that the Government is now discussing what the rules will be for deporting EU citizens who commit crimes after Brexit in a no-deal scenario.
The details have not yet been decided and, as one government source puts it: “No one wants people deported for getting a parking ticket.”
But it is right that those who are convicted of a significant offence are removed.
• SPOT the leadership bid will be one of the games the Tories play in Birmingham.
Any Cabinet minister who starts talking about their childhood will be accused of planning a run for the top job. This leaves ministers walking a tightrope as they prepare their speeches. Some are dealing with this challenge by handing their time to others.
Penny Mordaunt, the Aid Secretary, is simply introducing a series of “British heroes” who do development work.
But one of those involved in conference planning suspects that even this is about leadership as Mordaunt “doesn’t want to spend 45 minutes defending the aid budget to a hall of Tory activists”.
James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.