May must walk tall in the mountains and sell her Brexit plan to EU in Salzburg showdown
IT is the most important dinner that Theresa May will have ever had.
On Wednesday night in Salzburg, Austria, she will have a chance to try to persuade other EU leaders to bite on her plan for Britain’s future relationship with the bloc.
The next morning EU leaders will meet without her, to decide on their response. May needs them to say or, preferably, do something that shows her plan is making headway and is a realistic way forward.
No one in Downing Street is expecting a dramatic breakthrough at this summit, though.
Theresa May told the Cabinet this week that Salzburg would be a “staging post” on the way to a deal.
The British hope is that on Thursday, the EU will announce a special November meeting to discuss Brexit. That, combined with the October EU Council, should provide time for a deal to be done.
But, in a sign of how the timetable could slip further, one Downing Street figure close to the negotiations has told influential Europeans that if a deal was done in December, the Government could still get it through parliament in time for Brexit day.
Others in No10 are insistent that the withdrawal agreement needs to be done by November. What May needs to judge though is whether the EU is serious about engaging with her Chequers plan or not.
Influential Cabinet ministers are worried that the EU will never formally kill off Chequers but will not ever really take it seriously. Then at the last, May will be left with only two options when it comes to getting a withdrawal agreement.
She would either have to leave Northern Ireland in the customs territory of the EU — a division of the UK that May has repeatedly said is unacceptable.
Or, sign the whole of the UK up to a customs union with the EU, which she has, again, said she does not want to do as it would deny Britain an independent trade policy.
If she does not want to take either of these bad deals, she would be left with No Deal.
The Government still hopes that the member states, who are accountable to their electorates for the consequences of no deal, will tell the Commission to be more flexible as the clock ticks down. But Chequers, which was sold to the Cabinet on the basis it was “negotiable”, has not yet made the progress many in Government hoped it would.
If this does not change soon, it will be time for Mrs May to change tack. At the same time, the Government must step up its preparations for life outside the EU.
“Project After” is looking into how Britain can benefit from the freedoms it will have once it has left. But ministers tell me that it “needs more work”.
This should be a priority for the Government. For Brexit does not guarantee this country’s success or failure. It is what we do after Brexit with our new-found flexibility that will determine that.
The Government must be ready to seize this moment.
MOST READ IN OPINION
Whip gives Phil a good lashing
PHILIP HAMMOND has twice had to be slapped down by the Chief Whip in Cabinet this week.
On Tuesday, he talked about how there would be a lot of “squealing” about universal credit. Julian Smith, the chief whip, then picked him up on his language.
He said that talking about “squealing” doesn’t help. (One Tory points out to me that the chief whip is acutely aware of just how many Tory MPs have concerns about universal credit).
Those sympathetic to Hammond say that he was talking specifically about Labour when he used the word “squealing”. But it is another reminder of his political tin ear.
Then on Thursday, Hammond raised the prospect of delaying Brexit day. After the legislative timetable for getting ready for “no deal” – which is tight – had been outlined, Hammond pointed out that the Government has the power to put the Brexit date back.
But doing this would be politically explosive.
No one else present supported Hammond’s point and the chief whip shot it down, saying they would get all the legislation through in time.
Theresa May then explicitly ruled out delaying Brexit day. Allies of Hammond say that he was only talking about an administrative pause of a few weeks.
They argue that he only made the point after Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, raised concerns about there not being enough parliamentary time to get everything in place.
But Any delay in exit day would cause a massive political crisis. No10 sources are adamant that there is “zero chance” of Brexit day not being March 29, 2019.
But there is a major problem for the Government when the Chancellor, one of the three most senior figures in it, has such a political tin ear that he raises the prospect.
BUDGET’S NOT THAT TERRIFYING
A BUDGET horror show has been narrowly avoided.
The last Wednesday in October was under consideration as the date of the Budget, until it was pointed out that this was Halloween.
This date would make things all too easy for the Government’s critics. It would be “The Zombie Budget”, “Hammond’s horror show”, “The bloodsucking Budget”.
So, a Halloween Budget is out. No final date has yet been agreed for it. But the aim is for the Budget to take place before the special November EU Brexit summit.
The Government does not want to risk the Budget getting caught up in the row over Theresa May’s negotiating position.
So keen is the Government to keep these two events separate, there is even talk of breaking with tradition and possibly holding the Budget on a Monday (October 29).
Explain Chequers like we're adults
WHILE Boris Johnson has been keeping up a regular verbal barrage against Theresa May’s Chequers plan, she has not given it the hard sell.
There has been no national tour, no fireside chat with the country or impassioned speech.
But next week, Theresa May will try and make the case for her plan in an extended interview with Panorama. The BBC show was even allowed to film the start of Thursday’s “no-deal” Cabinet.
Number 10’s view is that most voters don’t know what the Chequers plan means. They think that a lot of those who are hostile to it, particularly on the Tory side, are more aware of the row over it – and particularly the resignations of Boris and David Davis – than the details of the plan.
If the Prime Minister though is going to persuade sceptical voters of the merit of her approach, she needs to admit that something has changed and explain why.
It won’t work if she simply says she’s stuck rigidly to her red lines.
Instead, she needs to ask voters to put themselves in her shoes, to understand why she has made the trade-offs that she has.
Mrs May must treat the electorate like grown-ups.
James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.