Irish border marks a line in the sand for any Brexit deal in this dangerous game of chicken with the EU
THE EU and UK are engaged in a very dangerous game of chicken over the Irish border.
There has been almost no progress on this issue over the summer — and without an agreement on it, there can’t be a deal.
One of those involved in the negotiations on the British side tells me the EU “believes we will blink first”. But the British won’t do that.
One Brexit red line that Theresa May is adamant that she will never cross is her insistence that no British PM could sign the EU’s proposed text on the Irish border, which would see Northern Ireland become part of the customs territory of the EU.
But the two sides need to sort this issue out. For the alternative is no deal, a scenario that neither side is prepared for.
One Cabinet minister tells me that “no deal would be almost a state of economic war” between the UK and the EU.
This is an exaggeration. But it does show the tensions it would lead to. No deal would also result in the kind of Irish border that both sides say they are keen to avoid.
Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, is prepared to produce a de-dramatised version of the backstop.
This would concentrate on the 16 areas where the EU thinks there would need to be checks between Britain and Northern Ireland.
The hope is that the dry, technical nature of this document will make it less controversial.
But the UK will still struggle to sign up to this backstop.
Why? Because it would still leave the threat of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the country. The Government COULD accept some regulatory checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. But it COULD NOT accept Northern Ireland being part of a different customs territory to the rest of the country.
Senior figures on the UK side are instead mulling an approach where the checks are split three ways between the UK, Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Their thinking is that the point of the backstop is to keep the Irish border as it is today but not to create a back door into the EU for goods.
If the responsibility for that was split three ways with the UK doing regulatory checks on goods going into Northern Ireland and the Republic taking care to ensure that all goods from the North exported via its ports are properly declared, then you would have a solution that was acceptable to the UK.
The EU will be very wary of this idea. It doesn’t want the Irish to have to carry out any additional checks.
It also wants to keep the UK in a customs union with the EU, and the Northern Ireland question helps them in their attempt to do this.
But the UK should point out that if disagreement over the Irish border prevents any kind of deal, then there will have to be a hard border.
The Government is hopeful of making some progress on a deal with the EU at the Salzburg summit later this month. One of those closely involved in the negotiations tells me: “Salzburg won’t be dramatic. But look for a shifting of the plates. They need to give her something to stand up and point to.”
What May must avoid is being faced at the end of the negotiations with a choice between staying in a customs union or no deal.
A customs union would send Britain out into the world with one hand tied behind its back while no deal would cause real problems in the short-term.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.
Boris burka probe can't drag on
BORIS Johnson has received multiple communications from the Tory inquiry into his newspaper column on the burka.
I understand that the former Foreign Secretary received an initial letter asking him if he wished to say anything in his defence. Those with knowledge of the inquiry say that he responded to that with a vigorous defence of free speech and the need for politicians to be able to take part in these debates.
Johnson’s response was met with a further communication from the party asking him if he wanted to say anything about his particular comments about people wearing the burka looking like letter boxes and bank robbers. My information is that Johnson has not responded to this letter. The Tory inquiry simply says that it does not comment on ongoing investigations.
In truth, this absurd exercise should be dropped. The Tories having an inquiry into the newspaper column of a backbench MP is ridiculous. If it is still dragging on by conference, it could become yet another thing that causes trouble there.
Of course, the reason so much attention is paid to Boris Johnson is his status as the members’ favourite to be the next Tory leader. Since quitting over Chequers, he has enjoyed a resurgence in popularity with the party rank and file.
Oddly, though, his status as favourite might help Theresa May if a vote of confidence in her was called. As one Cabinet minister explains: “At the moment, there’s a majority against Boris having the top job. So you have to vote for Theresa as you can’t risk him being in the final two.”
Cabinet braced for 12-week chaos
IN the event of no deal there would be 12 weeks of disruption at the border, ministers will be told on Thursday.
Ministers will be summoned to Number 10 for a two-hour Cabinet meeting on no-deal planning.
Originally, it had been expected that this meeting would take place at Chequers. But it was then pointed out that this would look like a crisis summit and the idea was shelved.
It will be emphasised to ministers that no deal means no deals. In other words, don’t expect a series of workarounds to be agreed between Britain and the EU to keep things ticking over.
At best, the Government is hoping for a couple of bilateral deals in areas that are of overwhelming importance to the EU. If no deal does become the most likely scenario, I am told no-deal readiness will become pretty much the sole activity of the civil service.
Ministers will also get to discuss a Treasury forecast of the short-term economic impact of no deal. But, rather absurdly, these papers won’t be circulated until Tuesday.
Brazen Russia's Novi trail
THE police and intelligence work that has enabled two Russian operatives to be identified as the lead suspects for the Salisbury attack is impressive.
But we shouldn’t kid ourselves that this public exposure will put a stop to Russian mischief.
The very decision to use Novichok in the attacks shows that Moscow really didn’t care if it was traced back to Russia.
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I AM told that the Budget this autumn will not be a dramatic affair.
With better than expected tax receipts, Chancellor Philip Hammond should be able to fund an increase in NHS spending without raising the headline rates of tax.
However, other tax changes – including to the Enterprise Investment Scheme – are being discussed.