How Trump could ‘strangle’ Iran through crippling economic sanctions and military strikes to force regime change
The US President has already started the 'strangulation' method by hitting Iran with sanctions which come into force in August and November
TENSIONS between the US and Iran have reached boiling point after Donald Trump issued a disturbing threat to Hassan Rouhani on Twitter.
Ever since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, America has craved regime change in the Islamic Republic – which it claims is the biggest sponsor of terrorism in the Middle East.
But after military inventions in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted in years of bloody guerrilla warfare and over 6,000 US troops dead – there is little appetite among the US and its allies for a ground war with Iran.
However, there is another military option available to Trump should he see fit to try and instigate regime change in the belligerent country.
How Trump could 'strangle' Iran
The US President has already started the “strangulation” method by slapping Iran with tough economic sanctions which come into force in August and November.
Speaking with The Sun Online, Robert Farley, senior lecturer in Security and Diplomacy at the University of Kentucky, said: “The idea here is to impose trade and financial services costs on Iran until it complies with whatever the US demand is.
“Ending US compliance with the JCPOA (the nuclear deal) is part of that - it makes it much more difficult for US and European businesses to work with Iran, which creates problems for Iran's economy.
“The financial services element, which makes it difficult for Iran to conduct business in US dollars, is thought to be especially important.
“But this is still at a lower level of escalation than it would be if the US decided to impose a blockade on Iranian trade, as we might see in an actual conflict.”
Farley explained how, in the unlikely event of the US taking military action, Trump would most likely opt for a devastating bombing campaign – rather than committing ground troops.
He said: “Any US attack on Iran is very likely to rely heavily on air and sea power, with attacks from cruise missiles, launched primarily from surface ships and submarines, manned aircraft, both carrier and land-based, and unmanned aerial vehicles.
“The initial stages would involve the destruction of Iran's air defence network, including its air force.
“Later stages would target specific military capabilities - ballistic missiles, and naval vessels - as well as the infrastructure that could reconstitute the Iranian nuclear program.”
How would Iran respond?
Iran spends around $14.1 billion on its armed forces every year – a figure which is dwarfed by America’s $681 billion spending on its military.
Farley, who is the senior editor of academic blog , believes the Islamic Republic could “respond very aggressively” or “hunker down” relying on proxy attacks.
He said: “Iran could retaliate by launching ballistic missile attacks against US regional assets and US allies, but this doesn't seem to me to be particularly likely.
“It's more likely, I think, that Iran will hunker down and use its regional proxies, including militias in Iraq and elsewhere, to confront US allies and US forces.”
The Kentucky-born security expert says Iran could “destabilise” both Iraq and Afghanistan through the use of militias and terror tactics.
He said: “In Iraq, Iran has substantial connections with a variety of local militias and other political actors that could be used to cause trouble for the US and US allies, either through direct attacks or through indirect political activity such as protests.
“In Afghanistan, Iran has contacts with some militia groups, but has also cultivated relations with some elements of the Taliban, which it can support or possibly induce to take action.”
Also the sheer size of Iran would mean toppling the regime would prove a monumental task – if Iraq, Afghanistan and the failed state of Libya are anything to go by.
The Islamic Republic is much larger than Iraq geographically – around four times bigger – and has around 80 million people.
Iranian troops could embed themselves in urban areas meaning civilian casualties would likely mount up if highly populated areas were bombed, Farley said.
He added: “Iran may feel that it can ‘win’ by not losing - if the regime survives, then US objectives are not met.”
What have Trump and Rouhani said about a potential conflict?
Trump issued a dramatic warning to Iran's "demented" leader saying the Islamic Republic would suffer historic "consequences" if it threatened the US.
He tweeted: "NEVER EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKE OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE."
It comes after Iranian premier Hassan Rouhani cautioned Trump over his hostile policies against Tehran.
He believes there have been efforts by Washington to destabilise Iran's Islamic government.
On Sunday, he said: "American must understand well that peace with Iran is the mother of all peace and war with Iran is the mother of all wars."
Why are there tensions between the US and Iran?
Before the 1979 Iranian revolution, Iran was one of America's biggest allies in the troubled Middle East and was led by the US-backed Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.
However, since the seismic revolt, Iran has been led by murderous Islamic fundamentalists and tensions with Washington have remained ever since.
On November 4, 1979, the Iranian regime took 52 US diplomats hostage in response to President Carter’s administration allowing Iran’s deposed former leader into America.
The hostage crisis lasted for 444 days and also included a failed rescue mission which cost the lives of eight US soldiers.
In April 1980, the US ended diplomatic relations with Iran – a break which lasted for more than 30 years.
In April 1983, Washington blamed the Iranian-funded terror group Hezbollah for carrying out a bombing attack on the American embassy in Beirut, Lebanon.
The assault, carried out amid a brutal civil war in Lebanon, killed 17 Americans.
In November of that year, two truck bombs in Beruit killed 241 US peace keepers. The US again blamed Hezbollah for the incident.
The Clinton White House, in 1995, placed a total embargo on Iran meaning US companies could not trade with the country.
And in 2002, George W Bush included the Islamic Republic in his famous “Axis of evil” speech along with North Korea and Iraq.
What is the Iran nuclear deal?
The deal was an agreement between the Islamic Republic and a group of world powers aimed at scrapping the Middle Eastern country's nuclear weapons programme.
It saw Iran agree to eliminate its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium by 98 per cent.
According to the deal, Iran would receive relief from the US, European Union, and the United Nations Security Council on all nuclear-related economic sanctions.
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The agreement was reached on July 14, 2015, and the world powers signed it in Vienna.
However, on May 8, 2018, President Trump announced the US will withdraw from the agreement - which he has repeatedly called "insane" and ridiculous".
The America's withdrawal from the agreement mean crippling economic sanctions will once again be placed on Iran - further heightening tensions between the two countries.
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