The PM is safe during the summer but September will test her survival skills like nothing else
Mrs May’s problem is that the Chequers plan is being judged against what people expected Brexit to be
“SHE’S safe until September.”
That is the verdict of one of those who knows the Tory parliamentary party best. Theresa May will make it to the summer break on Tuesday.
She can then be confident there will be no more drama about her own position until Parliament returns in the autumn.
No10 wants to use the summer to try to turn opinion around on Mrs May’s Chequers plan. Under consideration is for her to do events at venues around the country to try to convince voters of the plan’s merits.
Every Cabinet minister has been told they must devote one day over the summer to selling Chequers, including doing broadcast interviews on it. Ministers are already watching closely to see how Welfare Secretary Esther McVey and Aid Secretary Penny Mordaunt, who are known sceptics of the scheme, handle this request.
Some in Government also think that putting out more information on what no deal would mean will help persuade people that the alternative to the Chequers plan is worse. I am told these notices won’t increase public confidence, as they will reveal the “paper and string” nature of much of the Government’s no-deal prep.
But Mrs May’s problem is that the Chequers plan is being judged against what people expected Brexit to be, and they didn’t think it would look like this. Her own speeches suggested a much cleaner break with the EU than this proposal suggests.
The other challenge for her is that everyone expects the EU to come back asking for more concessions. No10 is adamant it won’t make another big move in its negotiating position until it sees some movement from the other side.
But the EU will push for more, as chief negotiator Michel Barnier made clear yesterday via a series of pointed questions about the plan. This is when things get dangerous for Mrs May, as two separate groups could challenge her leadership.
First, there are the Brexiteer ultras. They are already deeply unhappy about Chequers. They know they don’t have the numbers to defeat the PM now but many of them reckon they will have a good chance of toppling her if she gives more ground in September.
The second is a group of party grandees who believe that more compromise will be necessary to get a deal. But they fear Mrs May will be unable to deliver that. So, they argue, what is needed is a new Prime Minister, with Brexiteer credentials, who would have the political capital to make an agreement with the EU.
I can report that, in one meeting this week, it was claimed that 130 Tory MPs were ready to vote against Mrs May in a confidence vote. Now, others in the room regard this figure as an exaggeration. But interestingly, they think the total is close to three figures.
Mrs May has shown such a remarkable ability to survive that one MP likened her to Gloria Gaynor this week. Afterwards, Mrs May admitted that the reference had been lost on her. But September will test her survival skills like nothing else.
Mistake to write off Boris
IN the run-up to the Chequers summit, those close to Theresa May war-gamed the impact of Boris Johnson’s resignation.
The past fortnight suggests that they may have underestimated him.
They were right that Boris’s standing among Tory MPs is not that strong. His resignation has not led to a vote of no confidence in her. When Tory MPs met with the PM, Boris was compared to an egotistical musician who goes solo only to find out it was the band that made him.
But what No10 failed to appreciate was the former Foreign Secretary’s ability to communicate. His resignation letter and statement in the Commons gave voice to what many Leavers fear, that the Brexit dream is dying and that Chequers is Brexit in name only.
If Theresa May is not to let Boris define Chequers, she will need to tell her own story about it. She will need to make the case for why she has compromised in the way she has. To date, she has failed to do that in a compelling and persuasive way.
Hammond has every confidence
PHILIP HAMMOND has been making clear to friends and colleagues that he thinks Theresa May would easily win a vote of no confidence among Tory MPs.
One of his Cabinet colleagues tells me that Hammond almost sees advantages in May facing down the Brexiteer ultras, which would mean she would be free of the threat of a no confidence vote for 12 months.
Others, though, are wary of the idea. They point out that people – including Hammond – thought the early election in which the Tories lost their majority was a good idea.
THE Government Chief Whip is not meant to make news
So Julian Smith will hate being in the headlines for allegedly reneging on a deal for certain MPs to sit out a vote. But his position is, I suspect, safe.
As one Cabinet minister tells me: “A PM can’t get rid of their chief whip unless they are a powerful PM with a command of their parliamentary party.”
Mrs May, obviously, doesn’t fit that description.
There is also sympathy for Smith at the very top of government. In private, people admit they would rather win ugly than not at all.
PM won't move on free movement
THE EU maintains that the four freedoms of the single market are indivisible. In other words, if you want frictionless trade you must accept free movement.
One of the big discussions at the Chequers Cabinet meeting was what to do about migration.
Allies of the Chancellor Philip Hammond are adamant he did not suggest that free movement should not be taken off the table. They say instead he was talking about the importance of labour mobility within a trade deal. One of those present says that Hammond was arguing for “maximum flexibility to negotiate”.
I am told, though, that Sajid Javid, Gavin Williamson and Alun Cairns all pushed back against Hammond’s position. They feared it could look too close to free movement for voters. Allies of Theresa May are clear that free movement is a total red line for her.
I’m told there is “no room in the PM’s mind for one iota of deviation on that. If you can’t say free movement has ended, you can’t have a deal that’s sellable in any way”.
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But the EU will say that if the UK wants anything more than a free trade deal, then it will have to accept either free movement or something close to it. The issue is whether the labour mobility agreement the Government draws up ends up just being a watered down version of free movement.
I suspect, though, that the Tory party’s reaction to the Chequers proposal makes any major concession on free movement unlikely.
One well-placed source tells me: “The reasonable Tories are, for the first time, saying if we don’t deliver Brexit then we’re out of government.”