We are heading toward a political crisis the likes of which none of us has seen before — here are three ways for May to sort out her mess
Right now, Theresa May’s Brexit plan doesn’t have the votes to pass the House of Commons EVEN IF the EU were to accept it
WE are heading towards a political crisis the likes of which none of us has ever seen before.
Right now, Theresa May’s Brexit plan doesn’t have the votes to pass the House of Commons EVEN IF the EU were to accept it.
The defeat of this admittedly very imperfect plan would plunge this country into a constitutional crisis.
For would the 80 per cent of MPs who are opposed to a “no-deal” Brexit really allow one to take place? I doubt it.
But disregarding the result of the referendum, either by abandoning Brexit or leaving only to make Britain effectively a non-voting member of the EU, would cause a democratic shock. More than 17million voters would be understandably furious about having their vote ignored.
So, how can Mrs May get out of this mess?
Well, there are three things she must do to try to avoid this crisis. First, she needs to start treating her own MPs and voters like grown-ups.
May likes to say that she has stuck to her Brexit red lines, and in a legalistic way she is correct. But she should acknowledge more clearly that her negotiating position has changed — and explain why.
May needs to speak to the country directly and set out what is going on. When she speaks, she should be upfront about the trade-offs involved in what she’s doing.
Yesterday’s Sun exclusive, about Donald Trump saying that May’s Brexit plan will “probably kill” the comprehensive US/UK trade deal that so many saw as one of the opportunities of Brexit, was so damaging because Mrs May had been refusing to acknowledge that agreeing to follow the EU rulebook on goods and food will make a US trade deal much, much harder.
Next, she needs to turn her weakness into a strength. When she tours European capitals to try to sell her vision, she should be clear that if it doesn’t fly then Jeremy Corbyn will become PM.
Why should that bother European leaders? Because it would mean the two most significant military powers in Nato would be led by people who are deeply sceptical of the alliance.
She should look these European leaders in the eye and ask them how safe they’d feel in these circumstances.
The third thing she must do is work out what she will do if the EU comes back, as it probably will, asking for more concessions in September. As one member of the Brexit inner Cabinet warns: “We have got to avoid death by a thousand cuts.”
The danger is that the EU trap May in a negotiation where they keep saying we need a bit more and a bit more until Brexit has been diluted beyond all recognition.
If this happens, the revolt in her party would become even worse — more ministers would likely resign — and the deal would still not pass the Commons: Labour is unlikely to step in and rescue a Tory PM.
May should resolve now that if the EU comes back asking for more and more, she’ll simply go for a free trade agreement modelled on the one that the EU and Canada agreed.
She should then, on the principle that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, be prepared to argue for a technological solution to the Irish border that uses cameras.
Mrs May has made mistakes in how she has handled Brexit.
She triggered Article 50 too early, she hasn’t been anywhere near as serious as she should have been about no-deal planning, she threw away the Tory majority in a General Election she did not have to call and she shouldn’t have signed up to the backstop for the Irish border in December.
But now the priority must be to take the steps necessary to avoid a dangerous political crisis.
MOST READ IN OPINION
Let's show our hand on no-deal
NEXT week, the Government should finally agree to start telling businesses what to do in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit.
One of the Cabinet’s key Brexit committees is expected to approve the shift in the next few days.
Up to now, the Government has been reluctant to give companies clear advice for fear that it could lead to business flight from the country.
The Business Secretary Greg Clark has been particularly nervous about this.
But I understand that those ministers who have been arguing for telling companies what to do will get their way next week.
The worry, though, is that valuable time has already been wasted. As one member of the committee laments: “We’ve been having this conversation for months.”
I’m told that in the next few days, the Government will start being far more public about its no-deal planning.
This is necessary given that the risk of no-deal has risen significantly in the last couple of weeks.
The UK will also not convince the EU that it is even thinking about walking away from the table until it shows vastly more seriousness about trying to get ready for leaving without an agreement. But, as one senior member of the Government frets to me: “The problem is time.”
- I ALWAYS thought Donald Trump subscribed to the “never apologise, never explain – it’s a sign of weakness” school of thought. So, it was proof of how extraordinary his exclusive interview with this paper’s Political Editor Tom Newton Dunn was, that the President felt obliged to say that he had apologised to Theresa May for it.
Esther, EU are being watched
AT Cabinet this week, the Work And Pensions Secretary Esther McVey observed that people were saying the Government had crossed its Brexit red lines and that it was hard to argue with them.
The comments from Esther McVey left Cabinet colleagues wondering whether she might end up following Boris Johnson and David Davis out of the Government.
They point out that McVey backed Leave in the referendum and had expressed her reservations about the Prime Minister’s approach at the Chequers Cabinet meeting last week. “Esther is definitely on the watchlist,” one tells me.
Those close to May, though, are insistent that McVey won’t walk out.
But the question is what will the remaining Cabinet Brexiteers do if the EU comes back asking for lots more concessions, and the Prime Minister offers them up.
I understand, though, that Downing Street is now resolved that it won’t move its position further, until – and unless – it sees some movement from the EU.
Number 10 needs to hold the line on this. If the EU isn’t prepared to seriously engage with this latest UK offer, then the Government’s whole approach to the negotiations needs to change.
Matt must face the cold hard fax
ONE of the main priorities for the new Health Secretary, 39-year-old Matt Hancock, is to get the NHS better at using technology.
He’s got a job on his hands, though. As this paper reported on Thursday, the health service is still using fax machines.
Absurdly, it is this country’s biggest purchaser of them.
I understand that Hancock wants the fax machines to go, and be replaced by an electronic, single patient record that will follow you all the way round the system.
This is sensible. If the NHS is going to provide 21st Century healthcare, it needs 21st Century technology.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.