MUGGY MAY
For Love Island star Hayley and anyone else who’s never heard of Brexit – here’s why it’s all about to get messy again
BREXIT is a total headache for the Prime Minister, but Love Island's Hayley hasn't even heard of it.
Last week the blonde model looked dazed and confused when her fellow villa mates chatted about politics around the pool.
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She was utterly baffled as pals told the 21-year old that Britain was leaving the European Union, and she even thought this meant we might have fewer trees.
Viewers at home were left scratching their heads as to how she could have missed the biggest political event of the century.
But to be honest, we know it's a complicated subject Hayley, and we don't blame you girls for having no idea what's going on. The whole thing is keeping Theresa May so busy that she hasn't even had time to check in to this year's Love Island villa at all.
As the EU Withdrawal Bill returns to the House of Commons for a series of knife-edge votes today and tomorrow, we've got some help for the Love Island ladies to understand what's really going on in our fight to quit the EU...
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What is Brexit?
In short, Hayley, Britain is leaving the European Union.
In a historic vote in 2016 Brits voted to throw off the shackles of Brussels and go it alone, taking back control of our money, borders and laws.
We officially kicked off the process in March 2017, and Theresa May now has less than a year to negotiate with the EU just how we're going to leave, and what's happening next.
But, to be honest, it's not going all that well for her lately.
Last week her Brexit secretary David Davis almost quit over controversial plans for Northern Ireland, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson started mouthing off about the Government at a private dinner and he even said that Donald Trump could get a better deal with the EU.
Not ideal. Mrs May needs the next few days to go a bit smoother or she will face more calls to kick her out and replace her with someone new.
What is the EU Withdrawal Bill and why does it matter to me?
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The EU Withdrawal Bill is absolutely vital to make sure Britain is ready for Brexit.
It will transfer all existing EU laws into British law, so there are no gaps after we finally quit the bloc.
In essence, it's proof to the European Union that we really are leaving and we're getting on with it.
So come on, let's start talking trade!
And if Brussels think the PM is being dictated to by her own MPs it will make Britain look weak at the negotiating table, where we're fighting for a decent trade deal.
Theresa May needs to win to show she's under control.
We must be in a strong position to get what we want - and these votes could bind the PM's hands completely.
What's happened with it so far and why have the Lords changed it?
So far it's gone through the House of Commons and passed through to the Lords with just one change to it.
Now meddling peers have slapped on a whopping 15 changes to it, which if passed would tell Mrs May what to do in Brussels.
These have nothing to do with the EU Bill itself - all this is about is putting EU laws into Britain's books.
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Lords - many of whom voted to Remain - want to water the Bill down and change it to how they want.
And if they could, many of them would opt to keep us in the EU after all.
What are the changes and can't they just come to a deal?
Peers in the upper chamber have changed Mrs May's Bill several times which is causing her huge problems.
The main one is on the customs union - which would force the Government to negotiate with the EU to keep Britain in the customs union after Brexit.
That would help trade flow freely between the EU and the UK - but would also stop Britain striking new trade deals with the rest of the world, removing one of Brexit’s main advantages.
Although it would not necessarily keep the UK in the customs union, it would make that outcome much more likely.
There's a chance this one could pass, leaving Mrs May weak and defeated.
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Perhaps the most damaging amendment for the Government’s Brexit plan is a motion to propel Britain into the European Economic Area.
The EEA - which includes Norway and Iceland - incorporates the single market, so joining it would force us to continue free movement of people and keep most European laws. That won't fly with most Leavers.
Some of the other changes include scrapping Brexit Day altogether (when we will finally exit the bloc), hanging on to EU rights, keeping our borders open to refugees and giving MPs the power to decide what happens if they vote down her final Brexit deal.
What are the 15 amendments on Theresa May's withdrawal Bill?
- Scrapping the Brexit date of March 29 2019 from the Bill - (Government disagrees)
- Staying in the European Economic Area after leaving the EU - keeping us in the Single Market - (Government disagrees)
- Enabling the UK to stay in some European agencies after Brexit (Government agrees)
- Support for the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland and no border unless agreed by UK and Ireland - (Government disagrees but amendment proposed on reducing new border arrangements and agreement between UK and EU)
- Giving MPs the power to stop the UK from leaving the EU without a deal, or making Theresa May return to negotiations - (Government disagrees but has proposed an amendment for a 28-day breathing space if bill rejected. Today rebel Dominic Grieve proposed a compromise amendment but the Government has rejected this too)
- Requiring ministers to get approval from Parliament for their aims in talks about the UK's future relationship with the EU - (Government disagrees)
- Ensuring family reunification for asylum seekers after Brexit - (Government disagrees but amendment proposed for unaccompanied child to join residents)
- Ministers to explain what it has done to pursue the option of staying in a Customs Union - (Government disagrees)
- Limiting the power of ministers to slash red tape without the approval of Parliament - using so-called Henry VIII powers - (Government disagrees)
- Transfering the Charter of Fundamental Rights into domestic law - (Government disagrees)
- Ministers would be prevented from using regulations to establish when people can challenge EU law after Brexit - (Government disagrees)
- Legal challenges to our law should be allowed if they don't abide by EU laws too - (Government disagrees)
- Ministers could only change EU law with delegated powers if it was "necessary" to do so - (Government disagrees)
- Keep the EU's environmental protections and back them with a watchdog - (Government disagrees but amendment proposed on new environment bill principles)
- Use of regulations to amend retained EU law to be scrutinised by Parliament - (Government disagrees)
The Government has also accepted several amendments to the Bill - including that the courts should refer to European Court of Justice judgements when "relevant" and clarifying the status of retained EU laws after exit day
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So what's happening this week and when?
The Bill comes back for two days to the House of Commons on Tuesday and Wednesday.
They are set to have six hours to debate the changes each day, and then vote on whether to accept or reject them.
The debate is expected to kick off around lunchtime, with the crunch votes at around 4pm and 7pm.
The 'meaningful vote' amendment is set to be voted on today, and tomorrow on the customs union.
Will Theresa May win the votes, and what happens if she loses them?
Most of them Mrs May is set to win - as they do have a majority in the House of Commons with the help of her coalition pals - the DUP.
Their 10 MPs - who have promised to support her - will secure the votes needed for most of them to pass.
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But some Tory rebels are threatening to go to the other side and vote against her on some of the changes - like the ones on a vote on our Brexit deal, and the customs union plans.
These ones are likely to be much, much closer, and will cause real problems if they are lost.
The Government has already put down a number of concessions to plead with the MPs to come back onside, but will it work? Who knows.
Who are these Tory rebels and could they make a difference?
At the end of last year 11 Tories voted against the PM and issued a damning defeat on her.
It's likely the same group could cause trouble again.
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They include leading Remainers Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve, who all want the PM to compromise more.
But leading rebel Ken Clarke yesterday admitted that the threat of rebellions was melting away because Tory MPs feared that inflicting government defeats this week would topple Mrs May after the turbulence of last week.
Can't Theresa May just force them to vote how she wants?
Gosh, if only it were that easy.
Some of these MPs are incredibly stubborn and think the changes to the Brexit Bill are more important than voting with their own leader and respecting the result of the referendum.
Last night the PM issued a rallying cry to all Tory MPs to show the public they will deliver on Brexit ahead of the crunch votes today and tomorrow.
She made a crucial address to a packaged meeting of all 316 Tory MPs in a last ditch bid to stave off a damaging rebellion over the Government’s Brexit plans.
Right. But will Brexit still happen though?
Yes, Brexit is still happening, no matter what happens at the end of these votes. Sorry, not sorry, Remainers!
But they could totally change what Brexit looks like, and it could mean an utter betrayal of the result for millions of Leave-backers who wanted us to take back control.
Staying inside a form of a customs union could mean having to accept thousands more people coming freely into Britain with no checks.
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