Money talks as Britain walks – which means we WILL get a good Brexit deal

SO that’s it then. Britain is the rock, and the EU the hard place.

Theresa May is the poor soul caught in the ­middle, trying to work out how on earth to bridge the Grand ­Canyon-sized gap between them.

That’s the received wisdom anyway, after EU Council ­president Donald Tusk spelled out Brussels’ vision of a Brexit trade deal last week vastly more limited than Theresa May’s five days earlier.

“A pick-and-mix approach is out of the question,” insisted Mr Tusk, throwing the PM’s intricate plan for the economy back in her face.

Has mass depression set in among ministers? Might we just as well walk away now?

Here’s the funny thing. Behind the scenes in Whitehall, there is optimism that a good deal is still very ­possible.

No10 officials privately say they are quite pleased with Tusk’s negotiating guidelines.

The reason is, for all his morose scolding, Tusk might have closed doors, but he left Britain keys to open them.

Soften your red lines and we’ll let you in, was Tusk’s real message.

Intriguingly, I am being told by some surprising voices that the biggest key of all will be MONEY.

Pounds Sterling, and lots of it, will unlock a good Brexit deal.

The EU needs it, and we’ve got it: £9billion net a year more of it when we leave the EU and get our annual contributions back.

Meanwhile, the remaining 27 EU states face a growing crisis because of just this.

As the second-biggest contributor after Germany to the EU’s budget (contributing 10 per cent of its total), our cash will be very sorely missed.

Negotiations are beginning now to set the EU’s next seven-year-long budget, from 2021.

Only two solutions are on the table for filling the British hole at the moment.

Either the EU’s rich group of net contributor nations — Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Finland — persuade their overburdened taxpayers to fork out billions more.

Or the 19 poorer net recipients — the Eastern states, Spain, Portugal and Ireland — agree to receive much less.

With love for the EU at an all-time low and populist parties on the rise, both will fail.

The longer the money row goes on in Europe, the uglier it will get, and the greater the need will become for a third ­possible solution. That’s us. But would Britain really be ready to pay the EU for single ­market access, as Norway and Switzerland do, when taking back control of our money was a key cry of the Leave ­campaign?

The most startling discovery I’ve made recently is yes.

Several prominent Tory Brexiteers — one of them a household name — have told me they would indeed agree to ongoing financial contributions of even around £5billion a year if that breaks the logjam.

“It’s well worth it in terms of how much it will benefit the economy,” said the household name Brexiteer. “And we’ll get it back in increased ­Treasury revenue anyway.”

Craftily, the PM has always kept the option open too.

Look closely at the words from her first Brexit speech at Lancaster House: “The days of Britain making vast contributions to the European Union every year will end.”

Vast yes, but not smaller ones.

But how does she square the uncomfortable thought with British taxpayers that their cash will still ­continue to flow into Brussels’ vast coffers?

The EU institutions that the PM has already indicated she wants to continue membership of — Europol, the Horizon ­science programmes and the Galileo and Copernicus ­satellites — already added up to annual fees of more than £2billion.

A former Remainer Cabinet minister, who has always believed the quality of our trade deal will come down to “the size of our cheque”, tells me: “Once you start getting into billions, the significance of a few billion more is lost on ordinary voters.”

One option already being quietly discussed is getting businesses who want access to the single market to pay the budget contributions, via some sort of new EU trade tax.

The Chancellor could pass another corporation tax cut so as not to leave any of these firms out of pocket.

However, one Cabinet big beast won’t like this at all.

Boris Johnson will forever be associated with his big red bus’s offer of winning back £350m a week from the EU.

He faces a permanent loss of face if that sum evaporates.

If the Foreign Secretary wants to continue governing, he will have to lump it.

I suspect that crucifying her old foe Boris on the horns of that excruciating dilemma will entice Mrs May into paying up all the more.