Now the Bank of England says economy WILL thrive after Brexit – becoming the latest forecaster to make a dramatic U-turn on doom-mongering warnings
Economists now believe that the economy will increase by 1.8 per cent in 2018 - up from the 1.6 per cent they said previously
THE BANK of England upgraded its growth prediction for the British economy this week – becoming the latest forecaster to make a dramatic U-turn on doom-mongering Brexit warnings.
Economists now believe that the economy will increase by 1.8 per cent in 2018 - up from the 1.6 per cent they have previously predicted.
It is warning it will have to raise interest rates at least twice this year to stave off inflation because the economy is doing so well.
Shortly after the referendum in 2016 the central bank predicted the economy would expand by just 0.8 per cent.
The Bank, along with its Project Fear-spouting Governor Mark Carney, joins the IMF, the OECD, the EU and the Treasury in having to eat their gloomy words about what voting to leave the EU would do to the country.
There are numerous other times so-called finance “experts” have had to upgrade their outlook on Brexit Britain:
January 2017:
The International Monetary Fund revised up its prediction for the performance of the UK economy to 1.5 per cent growth – up from 1.1 per cent.
It was forced to admit domestic demand had “held up better than expected in the aftermath of the Brexit vote”.
February 2017:
The European commission is forced to upgrade its growth forecast for the UK economy to 1.5 per cent from just 1 per cent.
The executive arm of the EU admitted predictions made shortly after the Brexit vote had been overly gloomy, but still tried to play up the downsides to its forecast.
February 2017:
The same month the resilience of consumer spending post-referendum forced the National Institute for Economic and Social Research to revise up its growth forecasts for the second time.
One of the UK’s leading economic think tanks said it now expected growth of 1.7 per cent – up from 1 per cent straight after the Brexit vote.
March 2017:
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, the West’s leading economic think tank, said the UK’s economy would grow by 1.6 per cent - up from the 1.2 per cent it predicted just a few months previously.
March 2017:
The British Chambers of Commerce also upgraded its GDP forecast, admitting growth had been stronger than first thought.
April 2017:
The IMF upgrades its UK growth forecast again – reversing nearly all of the downgrade it predicted after the Brexit vote.
It predicted the UK economy will expand in 2017 by 2 per cent, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from its earlier 2017 forecast.
It also upgraded its 2018 predictions slightly too, making the UK the world’s second-fastest growing major advanced economy behind the USA.
June 2017:
The World Bank upgraded their forecasts for UK growth over the next three years – by half a per cent in 2017 and smaller rises in 2018 and 2019.
November 2017:
After it was reported that the Brexit divorce bill would be around €50billion, Berenberg Bank predicted a sharp pick-up in business investment.
It raised its GDP growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points in each of the next two years, with growth rising from 1.5 per cent to 1.8 per cent in 2018 and 1.9 per cent in 2019.
November 2017:
The Swiss bank UBS admits the outlook for the UK is not as bad as it thought and says the economy is well-positioned to benefit from strong global growth.
They said the UK will grow by an extra 0.4 per cent in 2018 and said that rate of acceleration will be sustained into 2019 too.
January 2018:
Lord O’Neil, a former Conservative Treasury minister and prominent Remain supporter, was forced to eat his words saying Britain should prepare for a much more economically optimistic 2018.
He told the BBC: "I certainly wouldn't have thought the UK economy would be as robust as it currently seems.
"That is because some parts of the country, led by the North West [of England], are actually doing way better than people seem to realise or appreciate.
"As well as this crucial fact, the rest of the world is also doing way better than many people would have thought a year ago, so it makes it easier for the UK."
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February 2018:
The Bank of England upgrade UK growth forecasts significantly for the second time in six months, and warn interest rates will have to rise to cope with the growing economy.
One of the biggest factors was a continued failure to predict the resilience of consumer spending as Brits were not cowed into cutting back, but carried on.