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TRADE TALKS AHOY

After Theresa May’s Brexit breakthrough what are the next steps towards securing a trade deal with the EU?

Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker came to a compromise

AFTER last week's Brexit breakthrough in Brussels, Theresa May is confident she's secured Britain an early Christmas present.

EU leaders confirmed today that we would move on to the next stage of Brexit talks - so we can finally discuss trade and a transition agreement.

 Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker came to a compromise last week
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Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker came to a compromise last weekCredit: AP:Associated Press

So what happens next, and when can we expect this trade deal to be signed, sealed and delivered?

This week: Cabinet meet and EU leaders hold European Council meeting

Mrs May met with her cabinet to discuss the agreement which she secured with the EU.

The other 27 leaders of the other EU states met today in Brussels - to rubber stamp the next phase of Brexit starting.

 Theresa May must now get her Cabinet to agree on a Brexit trade deal
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Theresa May must now get her Cabinet to agree on a Brexit trade dealCredit: PA:Press Association

They said they had seen "sufficient progress" on citizens' rights, the thorny issue of the Northern Ireland border, and the UK's divorce bill.

But there are still some technical details that do need to be sorted out - in parallel with future discussions.

Talks finally move onto stage two: The future

Brexit Secretary David Davis and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier will move on to talking about a trade deal.

The cabinet will next week to start talks on what they want in a future partnership.

 Theresa May and David Davis met with EU chiefs last week to agree a deal to progress with Brexit
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Theresa May and David Davis met with EU chiefs last week to agree a deal to progress with BrexitCredit: PA:Press Association

Ministers are bitterly divided over what exactly this will look like - with Remainers wanting to stay as close as possible to the EU, but Brexiteers urging the PM to break away and go it alone.

The EU want us to abide by as many rules as possible in order to secure a deal.

But Theresa May has said she wants to quit the Single Market, Customs Union, and leave the jurisdiction of the European Courts.

New Year: Transition talk and a major Brexit speech

Talks with the EU will officially in the New Year, with a fresh round of negotiations in Brussels.

The first thing they will start discussing is a transitional deal - which will be an interim arrangement between the UK and the EU until we leave completely. It will give us time to agree the framework for a future trade deal.

Full blown trade talks won't actually start until around March, because Mrs May wants the time in the new year to agree on Britain's position with her warring cabinet.

No10 aides are now drawing up plans for a series of war Cabinet meetings throughout January to try to bridge the gap by February.

The PM is then likely to make her third big Brexit speech to spell out what the Government’s formal requests to Brussels are.

 Mr Juncker thanked Theresa May 'for her determination' as he announced the Brexit last week
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Mr Juncker thanked Theresa May 'for her determination' as he announced the Brexit last weekCredit: Reuters

The PM has said this transitional arrangement should take no more than two years - but EU officials want it to last for around 21 months.

They also want Mrs May to agree to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union during that time, abide by all EU rules, and keep on paying into the EU Budget until 2020.

That won't go down well with Tory Brexiteers who want a clean break from the bloc as soon as possible.

February 2018: European Parliament vote on guidelines for the future

Members of the European Parliament will publish and vote on the guidelines for trade talks.

This is likely to just involve a "framework" for a future trade deal - which may not be signed for a long time to come.

The EU say that trade talks can only officially begin after Brexit, when the EU becomes a third country.

Brexit Secretary David Davis MP confirms it will cost around £35-£39 billion to leave the EU and says it was only confirmed 'about a week ago'

March 2018: Trade talks finally start?

Theresa May wants discussions on trade to now begin - presuming the outlines of a transitional deal have been agreed.

Preparations for this will have been going on for some time beforehand.

October/November 2018: Withdrawal agreement must be ready

Last week the EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said he wants our deal to come out the bloc ready by this time.

Technically, Article 50 says we have two years, but he needs time to get it agreed by all the different bodies - including MPs in the UK Parliament.

"We will need to have the final version of the withdrawal agreement ready by October 2018, in less than one year," Mr Barnier told a news conference on Friday.

And Mr Davis said on Sunday that the broad agreements will be done by this point - and the details thrashed out later.

The European Council, and Members of the European Parliament will then vote on whether to accept it or not.

March 30 2019: Brexit day?

Today is the day we will officially leave the European Union - two years after Article 50 was triggered by Theresa May.

But we may have a transition deal in place by this point to continue arrangements for a little while longer - or if the Council decides to extend the two-year Article 50 period.

However, we don't yet know what such a transition deal will look like, or even if we will get one.

If no agreement is reached with the EU, this is the day we will officially leave and all EU treaties will cease to apply.

But all EU laws will be transferred into UK ones - if the Government's EU Withdrawal Bill successfully passes through Parliament.

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