Theresa May’s vow to remain as PM may have shocked her party but it also showed her strength

EVEN some senior figures in Downing Street were unaware Theresa May was going to tell the world she wanted to lead the Tory party into the next election.

This declaration took Westminster by surprise. But even inside Number 10, there are doubts as to how seriously to take what she said.

Indeed, I haven’t yet spoken to anyone who genuinely thinks she will be leading the Tory charge five years from now.

Tory MPs reacted so calmly — there was barely a ripple on their private WhatsApp group — to May’s remarks as they didn’t think she was setting out what was really going to happen.

“It doesn’t change where we were on Monday or Tuesday,” a senior backbencher tells me.

May’s statement was not a precisely planned intervention.

Tellingly, she used a slightly different formulation in each of her broadcast interviews on the subject, showing it had not been carefully scripted.

One insider reveals her team “didn’t expect the headlines to be about ten more years of May”.

But May did want to knock back the idea that she had already settled on a date for her departure. There are three reasons for this.

Firstly, Number 10 fears that if everyone knows when the Prime Minister is going, she will be a lame duck.

Secondly, May doesn’t like the idea that she’ll go straight after the Brexit deal is done, as that suggests her premiership is only about Brexit — and she wants the public to focus on her domestic agenda too.

Finally, May wants ministers to think she might do a reshuffle — so they ought to behave.

“Two months ago, Cabinet ministers thought they could treat her very badly. But she is Prime Minister and she will do reshuffles,” says one May confidant.

Indeed, the May team is becoming increasingly bullish about her ability to move ministers around.

The summer has strengthened May’s position.

No Cabinet minister has emerged from the pack as the obvious alternative Prime Minister.

Instead, the Tory grassroots are keen on finding a fresh face to lead the party.

This argues in favour of May staying on for another couple of years to allow these new kids on the block to get more experience and show what they can do.

Party conference, which was threatening to turn into a beauty parade of leadership contenders, will be a bit more orderly than expected.

The stabilisation of May’s position means it will be possible for Cabinet ministers to give a speech without it being seen as a leadership bid.

There is a reason why “a week is a long time in politics” is one of the oldest political clichés.

But it is very hard to imagine Theresa May leading the Tories into the 2022 campaign.

As the last election so painfully demonstrated, she is fundamentally unsuited to campaigning in the modern media era.

The party hasn’t forgotten this and is unlikely to let her lead them into another election.

But the Tories view May seeing Brexit through as the best option available.

This shows how much stronger her position is now than it was the day after the General Election.

• James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.