PM is in a much better position this week than last – and after Queen’s Speech she can be stronger than ever
Tory eurosceptic who stood against John Major for leadership in 1995 gives big backing to shaky PM Theresa May
THERESA MAY is in a much stronger position today than over the weekend when the election results were announced.
She will be in a stronger position again next week once the Queen’s Speech has been approved by the Commons, which it should be.
In the immediate aftermath of the poll, the Prime Minister was distraught. All her top team had been telling her she would still win a decent majority.
They must have known the Manifesto had bombed.
At the same time Labour’s ever more generous offer to young people with money they did not have was winning them a lot of new friends.
The PM’s advisers did not expect an overall loss of seats.
A few of us were urging her to lead the recovery as soon as we heard the news.
We thought the country needed stability and she was best-placed to form a Government and get on with the job.
Her prominence in the campaign had, after all, delivered the highest Conservative vote for years and the most seats of all the parties.
Some in the party thought about an immediate leadership contest, then recoiled from it.
To plunge the country into a three-month wait, watching as candidates stalked the nation with different views on the future, was a recipe for chaos.
It meant a further delay in talking about all the important practicalities needed to complete our exit from the EU.
The clock is ticking and we need to sort out the details of how we will trade from 2019.
Our citizens living on the continent and EU citizens here need to know where they stand.
If we had opted for a leadership election, the Government would be direction- less across a long summer.
Some hoped the MPs could simply unite around a single candidate, tell the membership in the country they could not have a vote and get on with it.
It was soon obvious that MPs were not united about who would be the best replacement. Indeed, it was clear more of us wanted Mrs May to stay than thought any particular contender was the right person to replace her.
The leading possible challengers were told firmly by friends that trying to start leadership campaigns would be the opposite of what we need.
I think, in their own interest, they will now rally round the leader.
The UK has not lacked voter participation in the past two years, with two General Elections and a major referendum.
Most Conservative MPs think it is time to do a bit of governing. It’s time to catch up with the wishes of the people as expressed in those votes.
They want a good Brexit and want public services improved. They want more and better-paid jobs.
I think the fear that Mrs May might lose the Queen’s Speech vote is greatly exaggerated.
The Conservatives have 317 seats, where 320 gives a guaranteed majority.
It is unlikely the DUP will vote against, even if there is no special deal with them for the Parliament.
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There are plenty on the Opposition benches who fear an early election too. A few might not turn up to vote if that meant risking a return to the polls by voting down the Government’s programme.
Remember that Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems had plenty to worry about in their election results, and might not be able to improve on them if we went for an early contest.
Were the PM to lose a major vote which led to defeat on a Motion of No Confidence it would be difficult to avoid an early election, when that is not wanted by most electors.
Any suggestion that she is time-limited puts her on probation and entices the ambitious to warm up their leadership support.
My view is the party is right to give the PM our full support and to urge her on to deliver a good Brexit.
Now, more than ever, we need a bit of national unity to take back control of our money, our borders and our laws without damaging our mutual trade and the many things we will want to continue to do together with our EU neighbours.
At the same time, the Government should extend and improve the economic recovery, respond to worries about the money for schools and social care and demonstrate the ability to take us forward to a more prosperous future.
Leadership elections are often necessary in opposition to sort out the direction of the party.
In government, just after an election, we know what we have got to do.
It is easiest to do so without the distraction of more long arguments about what the country and Government ought to be doing.
The voters have done their bit.
This Parliament now has to make it work and carry out their wishes.
The betting on what will happen next
Gone by end of the month - 16/1
If Mrs May fails in Thursday’s Queen’s Speech vote, it would be politically impossible for her to stay in Downing Street.
She’ll need the support of the ten DUP MPs – luckily for her, they are set to back her to stop Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming PM.
Gone by October - 7/4
Tories could demand a new PM and leader in time for October’s party conference.
But many in the party say there is no obvious replacement or appetite for a new leader.
And triggering a nine-week leadership fight would hold up Brexit talks at a crucial time.
Gone with EU - 11/8
The PM stays until we leave the EU in March 2019.
Many Tories feel she has a duty to stay until then as the party doesn’t have the luxury of time when it comes to Brexit.
Some feel a change at the top after talks finish will give the new PM time to promote themselves.
PM June 2022 - 6/1
Mrs May makes a success of Brexit and her authority is restored at Westminster.
She has seen off the threat of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour.
But after a disastrous General Election, it seems almost impossible that she could lead a national campaign again.