Exit poll shows the Conservatives could face hung parliament – but can we trust it?
THE Conservatives could face a hung parliament, a shock exit poll has predicted.
It says they will end up with 314 seats, compared to 266 for Labour, and 14 for the Lib Dems.
The exit poll for the BBC and Sky News, done by pollster Ipsos Mori, predicts Theresa May's party to win the most seats overnight - as the polls closed at 10.00pm.
But it showed them 12 seats short of an overall majority.
However, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon tried to temper fears of Theresa May losing the keys to Number 10.
He told the BBC's David Dimbleby: "Exit polls have been wrong in the past.
"In 2015 they underestimated our vote. A couple of elections before they overestimated our vote.
"So I do think we need to see some actual results before we can interpret this one way or the other."
Counting has officially begun - with constituencies all over the country rushing around to get ballots to regional counts.
We're expecting results to drip in throughout the night - with the first ones coming in at around 11.00pm.
Any party needs 326 seats in order to get a majority in the House of Commons - if they don't get this, we have a hung parliament.
The Sun's guide of which seats to keep an eye on - and when they are expected to declare - is available here.
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But can we trust the exit poll - and how reliable have they been in the past?
An exit poll is a cross-sectional survey of people leaving a polling station, asking how they have voted.
It gives the first real indication of what the final result of an election could be - and who is likely to win.
This tends to be more reliable than polling up to the vote - because these are people who have definitely come to the station to cast their ballot, and have made up their mind.
Here in Britain, we have relied on exit polls to predict election results for more than 40 years – with mostly accurate results.
They correctly predicted the results of at least past four elections - 2015, 2010, 2005 and 2001.
What did the GE2015 exit poll show - and what were the results?
- Conservatives 316 (actual - 331)
- Labour 239 (actual 232)
- SNP 58 (actual - 56)
- Lib Dems 10 (actual - 8)
- Others 27 (actual - 23)
Despite the polls predicting a hung parliament, the exit poll correctly predicted the winner of the 2015 election - David Cameron's Conservatives.
And they got the 2010 result spot on too - predicting a hung parliament but with the Conservatives as the largest party.
The polls shocked commentators and the public - as election surveys carried out prior to the vote has showed it to be much closer.
Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown notoriously told the BBC’s Andrew Neil in 2015: “If this exit poll is right, Andrew, I will publicly eat my hat on your programme.”
Hours later, he said on the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think it’s the last time I will challenge an exit poll.”
The exit poll interviewed 22,000 people in 141 polling locations in 133 constituencies.
Going back further, the BBC and ITN used to use different pollsters from 1974 right up until 2005 - when they agreed to a joint poll with MORI and NPO.
Some exit polls predicted vote share, others predicted seats, and some asked voters questions to find out why they voted how they did.
The exit polls were accurate in 2005 and 2001 too.
They were spot on with estimating the seats won by Tony Blair's Labour Party (356) in 2005 - but slightly over-estimated the Conservatives. There they won 198 seats, fewer than the estimated 2009.
In 2001 they predicted 412 for Labour (they got 408) and 177 for the Conservatives (they got 166).
And going back even further - to Tony Blair's huge win in 1997 , the exit poll was almost bang on for Labour, but slightly out for the Tories.
They said that a "landslide" was likely as the exit poll was put out live.
Back then it only interviewed around 2,000 people on polling day.
In 1992 the BBC predicted a hung parliament, but the Tories ended up doing better than expected and pushing them over the line.
