What is an exit poll, what does the General Election 2017 poll say and how accurate are they?

THE exit poll for the 2017 General Election has predicted Theresa May’s Conservatives taking the most seats – but not achieving an overall majority.

The result is usually seen as the first clue as to who will win the election – but how are they calculated, and how accurate are they? Here’s what you need to know…

What is the result of the General Election 2017 exit poll?

The result of the 2017 General Election exit poll had Theresa May’s Tories winning the most seats, with 314.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour languished behind with 266, but the prediction would leave the Conservatives 12 seats short of an overall majority – which would mean a hung parliament.

The SNP were forecast to take 34 seats, the Lib Dems 14 and Plaid Cymru with three.

What is an exit poll?

An exit poll is a survey of people leaving a polling station, asking how they have voted.

Unlike other surveys, which ask people how they intend to vote, exit polls are not affected by people who change their minds on the day itself.

Thousands of people are surveyed outside polling stations, and the data they provide is then blown up to predict the number of seats each political party will win.

What time are the exit polls released?

Ipsos MORI publishes exit polls on Sky News and the BBC as soon as the polling stations close their doors which is at 10pm.

In this election, that will be at 10pm today (June 8). To get a majority in the House of Commons, political parties need at least 326 seats.

General Election 2017 LIVE – get the latest news, results and reaction HERE

Are exit polls accurate?

Here in Britain, we have relied on exit polls to predict election results for more than 40 years – with mixed results.

The 2015 results weren’t as tight as in previous years, but they did still predict the winner – the Conservative Party who were, at that time, led by David Cameron.

GE 2015 exit poll prediction

• Conservative: 316
• Labour: 239
• SNP: 58
• Lib Dems: 10
• Others: 27

GE 2015 results

• Conservative: 331
• Labour: 232
• SNP: 56
• Lib Dems: 8
• Others: 23

These exit poll results shocked the British public – as pre-election surveys had suggested the Tories and Labour were neck-and-neck.

Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown notoriously told the BBC’s Andrew Neil: “If this exit poll is right, Andrew, I will publicly eat my hat on your programme.”

Hours later, he said on the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think it’s the last time I will challenge an exit poll.”

The exit poll for GE 2010 was uncannily accurate. It exactly predicted the number of Tory seats (307) and was only three off with Labour’s seats, predicting 255 rather than 258.

However, it’s important to remember that the exit poll predictions are only a snapshot – and the actual results won’t be released until several hours later.