In this General Election horse race, the favourite is skittish and the lame old nag is coming up fast
I HAVE watched politics for a long time now, and in Derby week the coming General Election is looking more like a horse race.
Theresa May started as odds-on favourite and, with a lame horse leading the Labour party, it looked as if she could just trot to victory.
That seemed to be the plan and, with a 20-point lead in the opinion polls, it didn’t look as if it could go wrong. It didn’t look like much of a race.
But it has gone horribly wrong for Theresa May who has found Jeremy Corbyn coming up hard on the outside left. With Labour closing fast going into the last week, the Tories are getting nervous. At times this race has seemed like the 1967 Grand National in which there was a pile-up at the 23rd fence that took down every rider except one.
The 100/1 shot Foinavon scampered through and won the most unlikely victory in racing history.
The Liberal Democrats have fallen because their demand for a second referendum has been met with hostility by a country that just wants to get on with it.
Ukip has fallen because there doesn’t seem to be much point to them any more.
Then Theresa May piled into the fence when she announced that people would have to pay for their social care out of their estates.
Recall when, back in 2007, Gordon Brown cancelled a General Election because George Osborne’s plans to cut inheritance tax were so popular.
Taxing the money people want to hand on to their children is the most unpopular tax there is.
It was an amazing error for the Tories to announce it as the main event in their race.
I’ve never seen a more obvious mistake in an electoral campaign and Mrs May made it worse by abandoning the policy then trying to pretend nothing had changed.
Meanwhile, Mr Corbyn has had a fine campaign. He is enjoying himself out there. The great advantage of never having changed your mind on any topic for 40 years, as Mr Corbyn hasn’t, is that you do at least know what you think and know how to get it across. Labour’s manifesto is a wish-list but it is at least full of nice promises.
The question is now whether Mr Corbyn can overhaul Mrs May. That will come down, in the end, to who votes. If young people turn out to vote in much bigger numbers than usual, Labour can make this a photofinish. If they don’t bother, Mrs May will keep her nose in front.
She needs a better week, though. Not turning up at the TV debate last Wednesday looked bad because she has been avoiding interviews and tough questions.
A campaign based on her leadership needs her to be out there. It’s no use saying “strong and stable” if you are not acting it. She needs to get the argument back on to Brexit and whether people can really see Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott sitting round the table trying to get a good deal.
Mr Corbyn is running at a gallop and he just needs to keep going. Either his young fan base will turn up or it won’t.
Whatever happens on Thursday Mr Corbyn is, to use one of his favourite phrases, “going nowhere”.
He has probably done enough to ensure he can stay leader of his party if he wants to, even if Labour loses.
Election campaigns usually don’t matter because most people have already made up their minds before they start.
This race looked like it was going to be a procession and it looked as though it would be really boring.
It has been anything but and there is still a week to go. Hang on to your hats.
The Tory horse still looks as if it will make it over the line but it is hobbling and you wouldn’t expect it to race again. Horse racing can be a cruel sport but politics is crueller.
Poor way to define the rich
HOW much money do you need to be rich? It has been a big issue in the election campaign.
Labour says it will increase tax for anyone who earns more than £80,000 a year because the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell thinks those people are rich.
This week YouGov asked the British people for their view about who was rich and who was poor.
The verdict was that most people felt workers on the minimum wage (£14,040 a year) were poor.
Half the country thinks you are rich if you pay 40 per cent income tax.
The most interesting thing is that, when you ask people whether they are rich, the rich disappear.
Just four per cent of people admit to being rich.
That’s quite a problem when your economic policy depends on taking money from “the rich”. People who don’t feel rich resent it.
My grandfather, who was never rich but who saved all his life and did well for himself, used to put it nicely.
He would beckon me over to his armchair and say: “Now then lad, I want to give you some advice.
“Money is not everything so let me tell you. It’s better to be rich and happy than poor and miserable.”
I HOPE you celebrated National Fish & Chip Day on Friday in the appropriate way, though you have to be careful where you source the fish.
A friend once told me of a chippie near him where they proudly boasted “we bone our own fish”. I’m not sure they should be telling us that.
Cameron toe blame for mess
DAVID CAMERON (remember him?) was in the news again.
He released a selfie of his toes which he had taken to celebrate his wedding anniversary.
It takes all sorts, I suppose. I have to admit I slightly lost my sense of humour about it.
If you think the country is now in a divided mess, as I do, you don’t need to look far to find the culprit.
Just above those toes.
I’ve Ada good idea for talks
I WAS sorry to hear that Roy Barraclough has passed away aged 81. His best work, playing Cissie opposite Les Dawson as Ada gave me an idea.
We will need formidable negotiators to get the best deal from Brexit.
Now that Les and Roy are both gone, let’s get Boris Johnson and David Davis dressed up as Cissie and Ada for the job.
See how the Europeans cope with that.
DISGRACED former Tory MP Neil Hamilton is standing for Parliament for Ukip in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and admits he hasn’t bothered to visit the constituency once during the campaign.
Let’s hope the good people of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr treat Hamilton with the complete contempt that he treats them.
Trump’s kept his promise
PRESIDENT Trump’s decision to pull America out of the Paris climate change agreement was greeted like the end of the Earth.
Of course some people think it is, literally. In fact, it’s not as big a deal as all that, at least not environmentally.
The federal government is not as powerful as Mr Trump’s manner suggests. Already an alliance of mayors, cities and states have said they will submit a plan to the United Nations to keep greenhouse gas emissions low.
American businesses have been cutting their emissions for years because it makes good financial sense.
America did not sign the Kyoto agreement but its pollution levels went down.
China and India are the big issue, not America. Besides, the problem is more likely to be fixed by better technology and people making money out of being green than by anything the President says.
America is about half way to its 2025 target for reducing emissions. I wouldn’t be surprised if it hits it.
The real effect is to make America isolated.
The President promised workers in the Rust Belt that he would do this to put America first. They are going to be disappointed when their jobs aren’t necessarily saved.
Meanwhile, America is losing all its friends in the world and, on that basis, it’s a dumb move.
IT is a shame when someone you once admired turns out to be a dangerous fool.
Long ago, I thought the journalist John Pilger was a warrior for justice but this week he proved himself nasty as well as stupid.
Fired up with conspiracy nonsense, Pilger tweeted: “The unsayable in the UK’s election campaign is this – what did the Prime Minister Theresa May know about the Manchester attack?”
Not the unsayable, Mr Pilger, just the unspeakable.
- Philip is a columnist for The Times