What is my verdict on the General Election? The Tories will win but it won’t be a walkover
IN election campaigns, there are opening statements – the parties’ manifestos.
These are followed by a series of cross-examinations as the other side and the media try to pick holes in a party’s proposals.
Then come the closing arguments — the final attempt to sway the court of public opinion.
With five days left to polling day, we are now well into the closing arguments.
On Tuesday, Lynton Crosby, the Tories’ election guru, summoned senior Tory Cabinet ministers including Boris Johnson, Amber Rudd, Michael Fallon, David Davis and party chairman Patrick McLoughlin to a 7.30am meeting to set out the party’s closing message.
One of those there tells me that Crosby’s message was clear — I’m in charge now and this is how we are going to win.
After the social care debacle, Crosby wanted a return to Brexit and the economy.
As one friend of his puts it: “Lynton thinks that a Conservative Party should have some Conservative policies.”
In a sign of how this campaign has excluded even the most senior members of the Cabinet, several of those in attendance say that this was the most they have been consulted on — or informed — about the party’s strategy during this campaign.
Interestingly, Chancellor Philip Hammond was not among those present.
One Conservative Campaign Headquarters source tells me this is because “we don’t need a dry economic view, we need a punchy campaign view”.
But it is hard to think of a Chancellor being kept out of such an important meeting in previous elections, and his absence does not bode well for him, post-election. I’m told we will see more optimism from Theresa May and the Tories in the coming days. Crosby has been concerned that the Tory message to date has been too downbeat.
There will be a focus on Labour and tax too.
The Tory campaign team believe they can hit Labour with a triple whammy of Corbynite plans for wealth taxes, a so-called “garden tax” and to make more families pay “inheritance tax”.
“Labour will hit you in the pocket, they always do” is how one Tory sums up the message.
Senior Tories are still confident they will win this election. I haven’t spoken to a single Cabinet minister who isn’t confident that their party will still be in government this time next week.
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But as one of them admits: “It’s not been the cakewalk everyone expected.”
If the Government’s majority doesn’t increase to 80, Tory MPs will be disappointed.
They thought this election gave them a chance not just to take a few seats off Labour but to realign British politics and keep Labour out of power for at least a decade.
Most ministers are predicting a majority between 40 and 80.
I’m told that while London is not good and Wales disappointing, the West Midlands and the North East are still both going well for the party.
A senior Tory campaign source attributes the tightening in the polls to “Corbyn energising his base, not a massive swing away from the Tories”.
Theresa May has not had a brilliant campaign. She clearly doesn’t relish being out on the trail. Jeremy Corbyn, by contrast, has visibly enjoyed it.
But voters shouldn’t forget Corbyn’s anti-British worldview and half-baked economic ideas.
He might have convictions, but they would sentence Britain to ruin.
Why May should not banish Boris
THIS time next week, a Cabinet reshuffle will be under way. Mrs May will be back in Downing Street and tweaking her top team.
But she would be well advised to be cautious.
As one well-connected Tory points out, the damage done to her by this campaign is “not going to be washed away” completely by winning.
There are, though, those in May’s circle who are gunning for Boris Johnson.
One complains that he is a Foreign Secretary who can’t do business in Europe. They claim his leading role in the Brexit referendum makes him toxic there.
But it would be foolish in the extreme to kick Boris out of the Foreign Office. May will need his help to sell the Brexit deal, which will inevitably involve compromises, to those who voted Leave in the referendum.
One Boris ally tells me “they will regret it” if they get rid of him and that he wouldn’t take being sacked “lying down”. May shouldn’t want to create a powerful Eurosceptic enemy at this point in her premiership.
The PM also needs to use this reshuffle to bring back some of the people she has fallen out with in the past. “You have got to show there is always hope” if the parliamentary party is not to become unmanageable, one Tory veteran tells me.
The ideal candidates for a return are Michael Gove and Dominic Raab.
Both have history with May but have dutifully carried water for her in this campaign – doing a slew of media appearances to advance the Tory cause.
Their recall would show that May was prepared to let bygones be bygones.
Tories get a blizzard from Os
GEORGE OSBORNE’S trenchant criticisms of Theresa May and the Tory campaign have infuriated many party members, including some of those who used to be close to him.
One of them complains: “What is George playing at?”
But the word in Notting Hill is that David Cameron thinks that the Standard’s coverage hasn’t been toe-curling, but good
Many Cameroons are doing a rather bad job of hiding their pleasure that Mrs May and her team are not having it all their own way any more.
“If you could bottle schadenfreude and sell it, you’d make a fortune right now,” says one Cameron-era aide.
The dangers of a blue landslide
THE most startling conversation I have had this week was with a senior Tory who told me: “Many of us have come to the conclusion that a majority of 50 or 60 would be better than one of 100.”
Considering that this Tory voted for Theresa May in the leadership election and has been a stalwart supporter of hers, it was an extremely surprising comment.
So, what lies behind it? Well, there is a concern among some Tories that with a mega-majority, May and her team will stop listening to the Cabinet and Tory MPs – and that this will lead to an overly narrow approach to policy-making. After the election, May will need to show her colleagues that her governing style will be more inclusive from now on.
Is Amber Rudd the next leading lady?
AMBER RUDD’S performance in Wednesday night’s TV debate has got Tories talking her up as the party’s next star turn.
Rudd is certainly no stranger to the stage.
The highlight of her theatrical career was putting on what she has described as “a grown-up version of The Sound of Music” at university.
Rudd took the part of the Baroness in that production.
But many Tories are wondering if her next act is as the party’s leading lady.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.