MICHAEL CLARKE
Syria coup could have big consequences for Britain if new jihadi-led regime sparks wave of immigration
Despite largely disappearing from the headlines, Islamic State is still very much alive and kicking in Syria
SO Syria is finally free of bloodthirsty tyrant Bashar al-Assad.
Yet the chaotic tinderbox nation he leaves behind could lead to repercussions on the streets of the UK.
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No one yet knows how the complex and often competing web of different fighting groups now in control of Syria will manage a civilian administration.
But British authorities will be carefully monitoring events, with their eyes on two key factors that could cause blowback here.
Firstly, there’s the crucial question of what happens to the remnants of Islamic State.
Then there’s the prospect that war-ravaged Syria will produce a fresh refugee crisis, sending thousands to seek safety in Europe once more.
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Despite largely disappearing from the headlines, IS is still very much alive and kicking in Syria.
When the terror group made its last stand at Baghuz — on the Syria/Iraq border — in 2019, thousands of IS terrorists and their families surrendered and were trucked to prison camps.
Others fled into the Syrian desert in small groups, hoping to resurrect their caliphate after licking their wounds.
It was these IS remnants that America targeted this weekend in what they described as precision bombing raids.
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The US said they unleashed B-52 bombers and F-15 fighter jets to pound IS camps, leaders and operatives.
President Joe Biden said IS “will try to take advantage of any vacuum to re-establish its capabilities to create a safe haven”.
Syrian rebels' leader enters Damascus after Assad lightning takedown
The Americans took the opportunity to hit IS hard to try to make sure they don’t profit from the current chaos in Syria.
Over the last decade British Typhoon fighter jets — stationed at RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus — have conducted more than 10,000 sorties against IS, striking around 1,400 targets in Iraq and Syria.
In September Britain announced its role in the fight against IS — known as Operation Shader — was ending.
Whether that decision is reviewed remains to be seen.
Meanwhile thousands of IS prisoners are still being held in sprawling camps in the Kurdish region of north east Syria.
The most famous of whom is Shamima Begum, one of three east London schoolgirls who travelled to Syria in 2015 to join IS.
Uptick in terrorism
If the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces suddenly stop guarding these prisoners and they are let loose there could be an uptick in international terrorism in the UK.
The former head of MI6 Sir Alex Younger yesterday described the camps as “a hotbed of radicalisation”.
And he warned that if the SDF no longer maintains the camps then we can expect “a serious spike in the threat posed to Europe by Isis”.
The US still has hundreds of troops stationed in the Kurdish region of Syria.
During his last tenure as President, Donald Trump threatened to pull them out before aides persuaded him otherwise.
Trump’s advisors may be more amenable to the idea when he assumes office again in January.
Another refugee crisis
Then there’s the prospect of another refugee crisis which I believe is quite likely.
At the moment people are going the other way.
Refugees are returning from Lebanon and Turkey to Syria and good luck to them, I really hope that they find peace.
But if the situation becomes as chaotic as it did in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan after their hardline regimes fell, then the refugee flow will start to go the other way again.
Many will likely head towards Turkey first where there are already three million Syrian refugees.
Then, some could well decide that Europe is a safer haven.
During the 2015 refugee crisis, 1.3 million people claimed asylum in Europe, most were from Syria.
While the immediate situation is helping to ease the refugee crisis for Europe, it may turn out to be only a temporary respite.
Much will depend on the man who seemingly now has much of Syria in the palm of his hand — Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, who led the overthrow of Assad.
The jihadi has much blood on his hands.
He fought the US in Iraq for al-Qaeda before leading the terror group’s affiliate in Syria.
It’s why the Americans have a $10m bounty on his head.
Doesn’t believe in democracy
The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has toned down his extremist rhetoric and says there’s a place in Syria for religious minorities.
It may turn out that Jolani is being sincere.
But there are big factors that suggest this new-found tolerance may not last.
Firstly, this apparent transformation Jolani has undergone doesn’t mean the people he leads feel the same way.
Then there’s the way he and HTS ran Syria’s Idlib province which was pretty authoritarian.
It isn’t a liberal place and is hardly a beacon for women’s rights.
Also Jolani isn’t a democrat.
He may say that he believes Syria should remain a homeland for its religious minorities, which include Christians, Druze and Alawites, but don’t expect everyone to have a vote.
He doesn’t believe in democracy because jihadists don’t.
He believes it’s blasphemy against God.
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So the best we are going to get out of him is a benevolent autocrat.
As Jolani attempts to unite a shattered nation after almost 14 years of bloodshed, Britain and the wider world will be watching warily.
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