Analysis
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Trump has major attribute that will keep allies on their toes & strike fear into foes…world should learn from last time
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DONALD Trump has a major attribute that will keep his allies on their toes and strike even more fear into his enemies, experts have said.
As the political landscape braces for another Trump presidency in 2025, observers are already speculating on the global implications of a second term under the Republican strongman.
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Dr Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, said the world will need to re-calibrate after Trump's election win - and lessons can be learned from the ex-president's former stint in the White House.
Mendoza discussed the unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy approach - and how it may be a double-edged sword.
He told The Sun: "Trump is a very unpredictable individual when it comes to world affairs.
“You have to wait for the appointments to key positions - Secretary of State, Defense - to get an idea of how his foreign policy will be shaped."
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His unpredictability, Dr Mendoza explained, means that both allies and foes alike are kept in a constant state of anticipation - never knowing quite how the US under Trump will respond to international crises.
He added: "Donald Trump’s comprehensive victory means that US allies and enemies alike are going to have to re-calibrate their positions to reflect that, it is now going to be his global agenda that the world moves to.
"It would be a mistake to assume that anything – whether the end of the war in Ukraine or the future of the Middle East – is a foregone conclusion.
"The history of the first Trump administration from 2016-20 shows that those who engage and respect the USA did well, while those who denigrated and challenged it did badly.
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"Lessons can be learned from that, about how to position internationally to make sure that countries are in the driving seat of history rather than its passengers."
Colonel Richard Kemp, who led Brit forces in Afghanistan, described Trump's unpredictability as one of his "great advantages".
Trump win is bad new for Iran. They'll be scared with him back in the White House
He told The Sun: "Nobody knows - probably including him - what he's going to do next.
"And that is an advantage when it comes to international politics of this nature.
"Had Trump been president when Putin wanted to invade Ukraine, I think it's less likely he would have done that because he wouldn't know what Trump was going to do.
"The same with Iran in the Middle East. I would suggest that the world is likely to be a more stable place, in the event of a Trump presidency."
Colonel Kemp believes many of the world's conflicts over the last four years have been down to a "weak America".
He said: "For the last four years, we've seen the catastrophe of the Biden administration. His withdrawal from Afghanistan, I believe, sent signals to Russia which encouraged them to attack Ukraine.
"I think they recognise that Biden is not willing to stand by his long-term allies and therefore pose less of a threat to to their own adventures in Europe.
"And I think that encouraged them to attack Ukraine. I also think that Biden's approach to Iran. I think it played a role also in the decision to launch the October 7 attacks - the fact that there was a weak America behind Israel."
Despite the uncertainty, one of Trump’s most notable achievements was his ability to drive results, especially in dealings with adversaries.
Had Trump been president when Putin wanted to invade Ukraine, I think it's less likely he would have done that because he wouldn't know what Trump was going to do
Colonel Richard Kemp
Alluding to Trump’s ability to push hard bargains, particularly with adversaries like Russia and China, Dr Mendoza noted: “History shows that cooperation with the Trump administration tends to yield results, while opposition often leads to failure."
But when asked about the war in Ukraine, the expert said Trump’s stance remains unclear.
“There’s a great deal of uncertainty about how Trump would handle the war in Ukraine," he said.
"During the campaign, he opposed additional U.S. aid to Ukraine. But now, the situation has evolved.”
Given Trump’s history of prioritizing American interests, this unpredictability regarding support for Ukraine could alter the course of the ongoing conflict.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while congratulating Trump on his victory, remains hopeful for a swift resolution to the war.
Dr Mendoza said: “Zelenskyy congratulated Trump almost immediately and framed the situation as one of peace through strength.
"He’s hoping to align with Trump’s position of bringing the war to a quick resolution.”
One of the most anticipated aspects of the second Trump administration is his complex relationship with Russian tyrant Vladimir Putin.
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While Trump has been criticized for his amicable stance toward Putin in the past, Dr Mendoza cautioned that the dynamics are not so straightforward.
“Trump’s relationship with Putin is unpredictable. While Trump might want to negotiate a peace deal, it’s unclear if that would align with Putin’s aims,” he said, highlighting the potential for a dramatic breakdown in relations if Putin miscalculates Trump’s intentions.
It comes as Oleksiy Goncharenko, Ukrainian MP, told Times Radio that Donald Trump in the White House means "higher risks but higher possibilities" for the war in Ukraine.
When asked how will Trump end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours as vowed, the MP said: "I think that Donald Trump is definitely higher risks, but also higher possibilities for Ukraine.
"(...) Donald Trump already in his victory speech said about oil, which is very important.
"And if Donald Trump will drop the oil price in the world, that can have a super effect more than anything else on the war in Ukraine and on Russian regime in general.
"He [Trump] doesn't want to be a loser. He doesn't want to receive his own Afghanistan like Biden received in the beginning of his term."
The think thank director also pointed to Nato, noting that European allies would face increased pressure to meet defense spending commitments.
“NATO will be under significant pressure to meet its defense spending commitments, particularly from European members. The U.S. expects Europeans to shoulder more of the burden,” he warned.
The Middle East also faces a potential shift under Trump’s leadership, according to the expert.
Dr Mendoza predicted that Trump would continue his “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran, with a focus on strengthening Israel’s position in the region and fighting regional threats like Hezbollah and Hamas.
“Trump may continue to back Israeli actions against regional threats, like Hezbollah and Hamas. He has a history of strengthening Israel’s hand,” he said.
But the expert explained that a Trump presidency does not mean that Israel takes an automatic win.
One of the more surprising elements of Donald Trump’s foreign policy during his first term was his unexpected approach to the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Dr Mendoza shed light on Trump’s previous proposal for a two-state solution, a position that diverged from the traditionally hard-line stance many assumed Trump would take regarding Israel and Palestine.
According to the expert, Trump previously showed a willingness to entertain the notion of an independent Palestinian state, though it would have to come with clear, practical conditions that safeguarded Israel’s security.
“Trump’s proposal for a two-state solution was interesting because it didn’t just involve the Palestinians gaining sovereignty; it involved creating a framework that would ensure both sides could coexist without compromising each other’s security,” he noted.
“His position was much more nuanced than people initially assumed.”
Looking ahead, Dr Mendoza believes that Trump’s potential return to office might bring further clarity to his Middle East policies, particularly regarding the two-state solution.
While it remains uncertain whether Trump would return to this proposal, Mendoza highlighted the importance of learning from his past actions.
“If Trump does re-enter the White House, it’s likely that his approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will still center on pragmatic solutions that prioritize stability and security,” he explained.
Quickly turning to China, Trump’s foreign policy would likely prioritize reducing U.S. dependency on Chinese supply chains.
“Trump’s economic policies are likely to focus on reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese supply chains," Dr Mendoza noted.
"He’s determined to revive American industry and reassert economic independence from China."
This would likely lead to a further weakening of China’s economic influence over the U.S., a major shift in global trade dynamics.
The expert also highlighted the cautious approach that other global players, such as North Korea, may take under Trump’s leadership.
“Other global actors, especially North Korea, will likely be cautious about how they engage with Trump, knowing that he’s an unpredictable force in international relations,” he said.
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Indeed, a second Trump presidency promises to disrupt the global order once again—keeping allies on their toes and sowing fear in the hearts of foes.
Whether the world is prepared for this new wave of unpredictability remains to be seen, but we should expect a Trump administration that will play by its own rules—and leave many scrambling to keep up.
Trump's main policy points
DONALD Trump closed the Republican National Convention on July 18, telling supporters he wanted to become president for "all Americans.
- Implementing tax cuts, including no tax on tips.
- Protecting Social Security and Medicare - Trump said, "Incomes will skyrocket and the middle class will prosper like never before."
- Protecting borders - He pledged to end the "border nightmare." That means two things on day one - "Drill baby Drill," as he said, and close the borders.
- Finishing building the wall.
- Keeping our "sons and daughters safe."
- Replenishing the military and building a military "dome" - Trump insisted he could stop wars with just a phone call and said no military would be able to penetrate the USA if he came into office.
- Ending the war in Ukraine and imposing tariffs on Iran.
- Vowing to "beat" China.
- Working to decrease prices and ease inflation.
- Bringing down the cost of energy.
- Making cities "safe, clean and beautiful" again.
- Making it possible for Americans to buy gas-run cars by ending the electric vehicle mandate on the first day of his presidency.
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