Time is running out for Labour whether Ukip wins or loses in the upcoming Stoke by-election, says Matthew Goodwin
The politics professor argues that Jezza's Labour is in a catch-22 situation and the stakes could not be higher
IN the battle to win the by-election in Stoke Central, the stakes could not be higher.
For Jeremy Corbyn and Labour the contest is a “must win” battle.
Labour has held this part of the country since the 1930s so a defeat in a rock solid heartland on Thursday week would be disastrous and almost certainly trigger new calls for Corbyn to resign.
The by-election comes against the backdrop of infighting among Labour MPs over the Article 50 vote and Labour falling to just 24 per cent in the national polls.
Were that figure to be repeated at the next general election, Labour would be left with its lowest share of the vote since 1918.
For Paul Nuttall and Ukip the battle for Stoke Central is also a crucial test.
The self-anointed “People’s Army” finished second in this seat in 2015 but has struggled to sustain momentum.
In the national opinion polls Ukip has dropped a couple of points since the referendum and at the most recent by-election, in the pro-Brexit seat of Sleaford and North Hykeham, the party finished a distant second behind the Conservatives.
In his quest to reverse Ukip’s fortunes, Nuttall, the long time confidante of Nigel Farage, has declared his intention to redirect Ukip away from the Conservative Party’s seats in southern England and toward Labour’s more northern and heavily working-class territory.
This is why the result in Stoke Central really matters.
Put simply, if Ukip cannot win an industrial, working-class and economically left-behind seat like Stoke Central, where nearly seven in ten voted for Brexit, what can it win?
If Nuttall does win Stoke Central, the consequences could be profound.
Nuttall will become only the third candidate to be elected to the House of Commons under the Ukip banner.
More importantly, a Ukip win would also put potentially dozens of other Labour seats at risk.
Traditional Labour heartlands across the country will no longer feel safe.
Nuttall could follow a victory in Stoke Central by targeting a cluster of similar seats where Labour MPs are already clinging on with low majorities, where more than half of people voted for Brexit and where Ukip is already the second or third placed party.
These include Heywood and Middleton, a seat Labour almost lost to Ukip at a by-election in 2014, Dagenham and Rainham, Stoke-on-Trent North, Great Grimsby, Rother Valley, Ashfield, Don Valley, West Bromwich West, Hartlepool and Rotherham, among others.
A victorious Paul Nuttall would surely turn his sights toward these once-solid Labour seats, much like Donald Trump thundered through America’s industrial heartlands at the expense of Hillary Clinton and the Democrats.
But what if Ukip fails to win Stoke Central?
If Nuttall loses it would certainly be a devastating blow to his early leadership and could push Ukip into terminal decline.
Yet Labour could still be in big trouble.
If support for Ukip dwindles, this would bring lots of former Ukip voters back into play for the other parties.
At the last general election, nearly four million people voted for Ukip so where would these people go?
Most of these voters are former Conservatives who loathed David Cameron’s soft brand of Conservatism but will like Theresa May’s tough stance on Brexit, immigration, grammar schools and her promise to stand up for the working classes.
If Nuttall loses Stoke Central, Labour could still suffer as the Ukip balloon bursts and Prime Minister May wins back at least half of these Ukip voters.
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In fact, I estimate nearly 50 Labour seats, where Labour MPs have small majorities and Ukip won a decent share of the vote in 2015, could easily fall to the Conservatives.
If Prime Minister May and her team manage to win back at least half of the Ukip vote in these seats they could win back dozens currently held by Labour, such as Enfield North, Hampstead and Kilburn, Halifax, Ilford North, City of Chester, Dewsbury and Wirral West, among others.
Some of these seats were lost in 2010 but some of them have not been held by the Conservatives since the early 1980s.
Aside from being the title of a book, the famous phrase “catch-22” refers to a dilemma from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting conditions.
When it comes to Ukip, the Labour Party now faces its very own catch-22 situation.
No matter whether Ukip rises or falls, both outcomes could inflict serious damage on Labour.