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London mayoral election on a knife edge as odds slashed on shock defeat for Sadiq Khan… and PM braces for key result
The Prime Minister appeared to remain optimistic despite the 'disappointing' results
THE London mayoral election is on a knife edge after the odds were slashed on a shock defeat for Sadiq Khan.
Labour incumbent Khan is believed to have a closer-than-expected contest with Tory challenger Susan Hall in the capital.
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Bookies slashed their odds last night on a shock defeat for Khan in London.
Khan won 83,792 votes in Greenwich and Lewisham, the first London borough to declare its mayoral vote.
His Tory rival Susan Hall was on 36,822 while Zoe Garbett of the Greens came third with 11,209.
A narrow contest is also likely for West Midlands Tory mayor Andy Street.
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The results of several other mayoral, council, and police and crime commissioner elections will also be announced over the weekend.
Sir Keir Starmer's party seized control of several councils and stormed the Blackpool South by-election in a bruising day for Rishi Sunak.
The PM's own constituency in Yorkshire is now served by a Labour mayor, but despite the blows his Tory critics said his job was safe.
One leading rebel has told The Sun: “The PM will lead the party into the general election now — and on his head be it.”
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Despite suffering their worst local election results in 40 years, Tory Ben Houchen gave the Tories a glimmer of hope as he held the Tees Valley mayoralty.
And there are growing hopes in No10 they will also hold the West Midlands when those votes are counted on Saturday.
Results so far have seen Labour on 34 per cent of the vote to the Tories’ 25 per cent.
That is similar to the polling ahead of the Conservatives losing power in 1997.
The Prime Minister acknowledged the losses had been "disappointing" but stressed there were still lots of results to be announced.
Speaking at a military base in North Yorkshire, Mr Sunak told reporters: “Obviously it’s disappointing to lose good, hard-working Conservative councillors and I’m grateful to them for all their service in local government, keeping council tax low and delivering services for local people.
Bookies slashed odds for shock Sadiq Khan defeat
By HARRY COLE, Political Editor
BOOKIES have slashed their odds on a shock defeat for Sadiq Khan in London.
Senior Tories claimed the race for Mayor of London was far closer than originally thought and would be a major upset for the pollsters who had Labour heading for a landslide.
Mr Khan's hated ULEZ expansion and 20mph zones were said to have "galvanised" voters in the suburbs, according to Tory strategists.
Meanwhile it was claimed a similar collapse in Muslim voter support for Labour seen in English cities could be repeated in east London.
Mr Khan's team also insisted the battle for City Hall was tight - amid an increased turnout in the outer boroughs of the Capital and a slump in voting in the inner city.
The so-called London "donut" sees Labour's support concentrated in the centre of London while the Tories keeping a grip on the outer-ring.
In Bexley and Bromley turnout was up four points to 48.38 per cent.
While in Tower Hamlets it slumped four to 31.17.
And in limited data from council by-elections, Hillingdon in West London showed Labour down 8 per cent, while the Tories were unexpectedly 10 per cent up in one ward in Wandsworth.
Tory strategists last night believed Khan would achieve a third term running London, but the bookies odds tightened yesterday on a massive shock upset by their candidate Susan Hall.
The first hint of Labour panic came in an attack from Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting on Thursday,
He was slammed after claiming: "A win for Susan Hall and the Conservatives is a win for racists, white supremacists and Islamophobes the world over."
“But we have still got lots of results to come as well, and there are also things that I would point to, Harlow for example where Keir Starmer held a rally just on Wednesday saying that was a place that he had to win to be on track to win a general election."
The Tories narrowly beat Labour to control the council in Harlow.
It comes as the embattled PM put on a brave face at a passing out parade at Catterick Garrison, where he was pictured alongside a Shetland pony.
Of the 107 councils which held elections on Thursday, 56 have declared their full results, with Conservatives losing half the seats it had been defending.
Some 173 out of 366 Tory councillors lost their seats as the party lost control of five councils.
Labour has won control of six authorities as it gained 108 seats and took control in Hartlepool, Thurrock, Redditch and Rushmoor.
Sir Keir hailed his party's by-election victory as a "seismic win" which proved an "overwhelming vote for change".
Labour’s Claire Ward won the East Midlands mayoral election, becoming the region’s first elected mayor.
And Sir Keir's side gained Adur in West Sussex from the Conservatives after gaining eight seats - the first time the party has controlled the council.
As results continued to come in:
- Labour took control of councils in Hartlepool, Thurrock, Redditch and Rushmoor
- Reform UK beat the Tories in 16 out of 25 council seats in Sunderland
- But a Tory minister said: "If you vote Reform, you get Labour” at a general election
- Conservatives pulled off a surprise victory in Harlow that was called "the greatest comeback since Lazarus"
- Labour lost control of Oldham after a pro-Gaza rebellion
- The Lib Dems have gained 32 council seats and the Greens 20
- Conservative Ben Houchen was re-elected as Tees Valley Mayor, but with a reduced majority over Labour
- Labour’s Kim McGuinness won the North East mayoral election, defeating former Labour-turned-independent candidate Jamie Driscoll
- Boris Johnson was turned away from a polling station after forgetting his ID
Reform UK beat the Tories in 16 out of 25 council seats in Brexit heartland Sunderland. Labour lost control of Oldham after a pro-Gaza rebellion, with its vote slumping in Muslim areas.
The PM said Ben Houchen’s re-election victory in Teesside was evidence of “the Conservatives delivering”, as he praised the Tory mayor’s record on attracting jobs and investment to the area.
He said the Labour Party “threw absolutely everything” at the election there, but they “couldn’t dislodge Ben”.
But in Yorkshire, Labour’s David Skaith won the York and North Yorkshire mayoral election, securing victory in the Prime Minister’s own backyard.
It was the first time voters in the area had voted for a regional mayor, with Mr Skaith securing about a third of the vote.
The result brought defeat in an area considered a Conservative stronghold — and including the PM’s own constituency of Richmond.
Labour avoided potential embarrassment in the North East mayoral contest.
Its candidate, Kim McGuinness, overcame independent Jamie Driscoll, who had quit Labour after being barred from running as the party’s candidate.
Labour's Steve Rotherham has been comfortably re-elected as mayor of Liverpool.
And Keir Starmer's party also won the South Yorkshire Mayor race, it was announced this lunchtime.
More results are expected over the weekend, with key mayoral races in London and the West Midlands declaring on Saturday.
For millions of voters this was the final set of ballots ahead of the General Election at some point later this year.
Labour claimed first blood early Friday morning by regaining control of Hartlepool council in the North East, before also flipping Rushmoor in Hampshire.
The Tory vote is collapsing across the country
By JACK ELSOM, Chief Political Correspondent
HOWEVER you spin it, the local elections have been inescapably bad for Rishi Sunak.
Across the country the Tory vote is collapsing - from the Red Wall penetrated by Boris Johnson in 2019, to the party’s traditional southern fortresses.
Sir Keir Starmer - the night’s main winner - could not have been quicker in dashing to Blackpool Friday morning for a triumphant by-election victory lap.
It is Brexit-voting towns like this seaside resort he needs to regain if he wants to cruise into No10 some time later this year.
And Labour capturing once-true blue military areas like Rushmoor ought to send shivers up the spine of Conservative high command.
Braved-faced Tory apparatchiks point to the usual caveats: that governing parties always get a kicking outside general elections.
That may be true, but it will be cold comfort for those in Downing Street who know they are running out of road - and time - to defy the polls and win an historic fifth term.
There are still some glimmers of good news for the ever-optimistic Mr Sunak to look to.
By clinging on to the Tees Valley mayoralty, he appears to have headed off a brewing mutiny from those within his party ready to hand him a whisky and a revolver.
It gives him a narrative to sell both to voters - and Conservative plotters - that he’s still in the fight.
And for all their noising off, Reform flopped in the Blackpool vote that should have been their ideal contest.
The task for Mr Sunak now is to convince disillusioned Tories flirting with Nigel Farage’s insurgents that it’s a straight-up him vs Sir Keir at the General Election.
That job will be made easier if can prove his flagship Rwanda plan works and deliver another round of tax cuts.
But the clock is ticking.
Its victory in the Blackpool South by-election marked a 26 per cent swing from the Tories in the third-largest since WW2.
The party's new MP Chris Webb bagged 10,825 votes, followed by the Tories on 3,218 and Reform on 3,101.
Sir Keir said the result was "vindication of the hard work over the last four long years to change the Labour Party".
Following their defeat, the Conservatives said: "This was always going to be a difficult election given the specific circumstances related to the previous incumbent."
Scott Benton - who won the seaside seat for the Tories in 2019 - was forced to quit after being caught in a lobbying scandal.
Boris Johnson set for political comeback to haul Tories back into election contention
Reform UK failed to get more votes than the Conservatives but only by a narrow 117 votes.
Richard Tice's right-wing insurgents did however beat the Conservatives in 16 council seats in Sunderland.
A Tory spokesman said: "What has been clear is that a vote for Reform is a vote for Sir Keir Starmer - taking us right back to square one."
With Mr Houchen being reelected in Teesside, Mr Sunak is now pinning his hopes on clinging onto the West Midlands.
While the Tees Valley Mayor was expected to retain power in the North East, Andy Street's reelection battle in the West Midlands is too close to call.
But Mr Houchen's victory may just be enough to quell attempts by mutinous Tories to force Mr Sunak out.
Rebels had long eyed the local elections as their last chance to replace the PM before the General Election.
But sources are now claiming there is no appetite for a change in leader and even Number 10 appears confident they won't walk the talk.
Allies rallied round Mr Sunak Friday morning, with Tory chairman Richard Holden calling him the "right man for the job".
He told Times Radio: "The Prime Minister is going to go on and lead the Conservative Party into the general election, there’s no doubt about that.”
Asked for his reaction to the results so far, Mr Holden said: “Not a great set of results but coming off I think it would be fair to say a very high watermark in 2021.”
In 2021 - when most of these contests were last fought - Boris Johnson hoovered up votes with a "vaccine bounce" emerging from the pandemic.
The results were so bruising for Labour that Sir Keir was on the verge of quitting.
This was always going to be a difficult election given the specific circumstances
Tory spokesman on Blackpool South by-election
Mr Holden added: "I think what they want to see is us delivering on things like the Rwanda scheme... what I think people want to see is more Conservative delivery on things like illegal migration, they want to see that deterrent."
He told the BBC: "When people are voting in individual by-elections they know they're not voting for the government of the country."
Polling guru Professor John Curtice said the early results were "nothing short of catastrophic" for Mr Sunak.
He told the BBC: "The government is potentially heading for quite a considerable defeat."
The top pollster said early results put the Conservatives on course for their worst result in 40 years.
The Tories did pull off a surprise victory to hang onto the Harlow council - which its MP Robert Halfon described as the "biggest comeback since Lazarus".
He said Labour had predicted a "landslide" result, with two visits from Sir Keir during the campaign.
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Meanwhile in Oldham Labour actually lost control of the authority after pro-Gaza independents cost them a majority.
Labour frontbencher Pat McFadden admitted the Israel-Hamas war "is a factor" for some voters and said his party would "work hard" to win those people back.
Reform run the Tories close - but would have wanted to beat them in Blackpool
By MARTINA BET, Political Correspondent
THE contest in Blackpool South represented a key moment to measure the electoral appeal of Reform UK.
The right-wing insurgent party hailed its best by-election result this morning, earning 16.9 per cent of the vote.
This the first time they reached above 15 per cent and the second time above 10 per cent.
Reform candidate Mark Butcher was only 117 votes away from beating the Tories and leader Richard Tice declared the party is now the only “real opposition” to Labour.
But the Brexit-voting seaside seat should have been fertile territory for Reform, and the result is still a long way behind by-election scores Ukip hit on their way to the 2015 general election.
And while only a small amount of votes separated them second place, the Tories will be breathing a sigh of relief they came second.
Elections guru Prof Sir John Curtice said: “The only thing that’s stopped this result from being basically an unmitigated disaster for the Conservatives was the fact they just narrowly squeaked ahead of Reform.”
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