Hopes of Budget giveaways and tax cuts from Jeremy Hunt are bleak – and a gang of faceless bureaucrats are to blame
The Chancellor insists he will not borrow to pay for any giveaways
WHO governs Britain? Ted Heath never actually said his most famous quote from 1974, but the same question can be asked today as Jeremy Hunt burns the midnight oil ahead of Wednesday’s make-or-break Budget.
The Chancellor is scrambling to increase the amount of pocket money the Office of Budget Responsibility deigns to let him spend.
So far, though, the mood music for big pre-election giveaways and much-needed tax relief is not good.
The OBR quango was set up by George Osborne as a political ruse to try to draw a contrast between his fiscal responsibility and the Wild West days of Labour under Gordon Brown.
But it’s blown up in the Tories’ faces.
After anti-Liz Truss MPs made the OBR’s view on any tax changes a sacred cow in their bid to oust her as PM, they’ve made the body so all-powerful that its faceless bean counters all but read out the Budget.
Hunt is looking for another £2billion down the back of the sofa from future spending cuts after the OBR gave a snooty thumbs down to policies his Treasury officials had said will stimulate growth.
The OBR had already decreed he only had £13billion of headroom if he is going to get debt slowing down within five years — almost half the amount available for goodies at last year’s Autumn Statement.
AWFUL POLL RATINGS
For what was meant to be the moment that rocket boosters were put under the Conservatives’ awful poll ratings as they head into a long election campaign, insiders said things were looking “dire” last night. Those involved with the process lament a grim list of options plonked in front of the Chancellor.
It’s either dreaded “revenue raisers”, a typically silky Treasury term for what you and I would call more taxes, or a list of unpalatable spending cuts that will lead to election campaign arguments over whether Topsy and Tim will have enough pencils in their classrooms.
The ruler is run down the chart, with officials guessing at things that “might wash” with the OBR — while the Chancellor has to cry into his endless black coffees as he works out how far he can push already desperate Tory MPs.
So it means some eye-catching stuff like inheritance tax cuts, stamp duty cuts and 99 per cent mortgages have all been put in the bin.
Oh, and don’t even think about an increase in defence spending.
The OBR will then mark the homework and round they go again.
Frankly, this is an absurd way to run the sixth largest economy in the world.
ZERO ACCOUNTABILITY
An endless dance of the macabre between elected politicians and these faceless bureaucrats handed them far too much power over the direction of the country, with zero accountability.
Who is more powerful?
Hunt — elected, appointed, accountable to Cabinet and the Commons and ultimately the voters. Or someone you’ve never heard of called Richard Hughes?
The OBR boss’s CV will come as no surprise — a spell at the French Ministry of Finances before the famously rubbish-at-forecasting International Monetary Fund.
And, of course, there was the mandatory turn at the Resolution Foundation, the left-wing think tank run by Ed Miliband’s economic guru. Need I say more.
So is there any good news? After Liz Truss, Hunt insists he will not borrow to pay for any giveaways, but that means thin gruel on Wednesday.
Income tax cuts are out, but it does sound like both No 10 and No 11 are fighting to protect another cut to National Insurance.
NI contributions can be cut quickly and can target workers rather than landlords and pensioners, as well as work across all of the UK. But will it be enough to move either the economic or political dial?
INCOME TAX CUTS OUT
It would be madness to put up fuel duty in an election year, but as of last night a freeze on booze duties was still in doubt.
Despite the tax cuts last November, new polling shows that 49 per cent of the public still associate the Conservatives with high taxation.
According to a Survation poll for the UK Spirits Alliance, that is down just two points from 51 per cent before the Autumn Statement.
With more than half of voters insisting they “pay too much tax”, the stakes could not be higher.
Hunt better hope his one last dance with the OBR comes up with some cash.
While we all ask who really runs the country, he will spend this weekend begging: “Please sir, can I have some more?”
FARAGE: I'LL BE BACK - AND LEADER
NIGEL FARAGE is eyeing a return to the political front line, I can reveal.
But only after Tories are skittled by Labour at the election.
He reckons the disjointed right will be easier to unite in opposition to a Starmer government.
The Brexit chief told me: “I’m not for a moment saying I won’t get back into politics, it’s just a question of when.” Asked what party he would be a member of in five years’ time, he hit back: “Member? I would be the leader . . . ”
In the meantime, Nige has set himself a new task, taming his pal Donald Trump’s wilder views on Nato. The self-appointed Trump whisperer says he raised the matter with him recently and insists The Don would not desert the Western alliance as we face the threat of World War Three.
There is hysteria across Western Europe over Trump’s – not unfair – suggestion they should not rely on America to pick up the bill. But Farage insists: “There is absolutely no chance of America abandoning their longest, most traditional allies.”
But he warned the death of Putin opponent Alexei Navalny makes serious negotiations with Russia over Ukraine much harder – maybe impossible.
Tory war chest
LAST night saw the annual Tory winter fundraiser – a firm fixture in the tin-shaking calendar.
As the Conservatives look to add to the £17million war chest built up for election year, most of the Cabinet were pimped out for the cause.
Lucky punters bidded for clay pigeon shooting with Home Secretary James Cleverly, or a Japanese meal with Jeremy Hunt – presuming he doesn’t accidentally turn up at the Chinese instead, after famously confusing the nationality of his wife.
Donors were offered tickets to a Liverpool game with Education Secretary Gillian Keegan or a West End show with Culture boss Lucy Frazer.
They could turn their hand to bridge with Michael Gove or try their luck at a poker night hosted by Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch.
Clearly the star event, however, was a mysterious “afternoon of science” with Science Secretary Michelle Donelan . . .
What is the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)?
THE Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is an independent body in the UK.
Created in 2010 by then-Chancellor George Osborne, its main job is to provide analysis and forecasts for the country’s economy and public finances.
Its purpose is to offer unbiased and transparent assessments and help ensure Government decisions on spending, taxation, and borrowing are based on sound economic analysis rather than political considerations.
The OBR publishes reports and economic outlooks regularly but its contributions are particularly crucial during government fiscal events such as budget announcements, where it plays a key role in informing policy decisions and public debate.