Brexit has pitched traditional Labour voters against liberal ones… the party will die
The referendum result has pitched the working class voters of the Labour Party against the middle-class liberals
CAN Labour survive Brexit? The party now looks in danger of becoming a political irrelevance.
Its reaction to the referendum result is threatening to break apart the electoral coalition of working-class voters and middle-class liberals that has been behind every one of its General Election victories.
More than 60 per cent of Labour seats voted to leave the EU. In these constituencies, being the party that is trying to block Brexit would be electoral suicide.
But many Labour MPs in places that voted to Remain have different interests.
They want to show their constituents they are arguing for a second referendum or for Brexit-lite. Right now, Labour is getting caught between these two stools, satisfying no one.
In two parliamentary by-elections this month, Labour has seen its vote share plummet in both a heavily Remain and a heavily Leave seat.
The party is now polling at 25 per cent, the worst numbers for a Labour opposition since 1983.
Labour’s problem is that it is having to fight on multiple fronts. In Leave-voting seats, Labour MPs are worried about Ukip — which now has a working-class Scouser as its leader.
Indeed, influential figures in the party believe that Andy Burnham’s Leigh seat could be won by Ukip if he becomes Mayor of Manchester and stands down as an MP.
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But in heavily Remain seats, Labour MPs want to deny the Lib Dems the chance to outflank them as the anti-Brexit party.
If Labour want to know what this kind of post-referendum squeeze looks like, they just need to look north to Scotland.
There, in its historic heartland, Labour is languishing in a poor third place — trailing the independence-supporting SNP and the fiercely Unionist Tories.
Compounding Labour’s problem is that those voters just looking for competence are much more likely to plump for Mrs May than Jeremy Corbyn.
She has a 33-point lead over him on the question of who would make the best PM.
The Tories have also managed to keep a lid on their own Brexit divisions. As one senior backbencher puts it, there is a “pragmatic making Brexit work alliance” emerging within the party.
The problem for Labour is that even Britain leaving the EU won’t solve its dilemma.
For post-Brexit, Britain will have to decide for itself its immigration and trade policies.
These questions will, again, pit the two sides of the Labour coalition against each other.
One Labour MP who voted against invoking Article 50 believes the party will split because the differences between the two groups are unbridgeable.
This is exacerbated by Corbyn, a disastrous leader who has no strategy and little popular appeal.
But even if he went tomorrow — and he won’t— Labour’s problems would not go away.
This is the proof of how bad things are for Labour.
Corbyn and his disastrous leadership is not even its biggest problem any more.
NO10 has a decision to make
ON Thursday afternoon, with Boris Johnson’s criticism of Saudi Arabia dominating the headlines, the Foreign Secretary was summoned to see the Prime Minister.
But if anyone expects Boris to approach the job differently after this meeting, they’ll be disappointed.
The Johnson circle dismisses the idea that this kind of honesty isn’t how a Foreign Secretary should operate. One confidant tells me: “A lot of convention has been swept aside in the last 12 months. He’s a different politician.
“He’s going to do it his own way. The Prime Minister knew that when she appointed him.”
In other words, don’t expect Boris, inset, to become a mealy mouthed diplomat. His view is that to pretend Saudi Arabia is an uncomplicated ally is, in the words of one friend, “to treat the people like idiots”.
No10 must not under- estimate Boris. He is the most senior and, by far, the most well-known Leave supporter in her Cabinet.
Mrs May will need him to assure voters the EU exit deal she negotiates really does mean Brexit.
Secret future for youth
MORE than two-thirds of young people sent down reoffend within a year of being released.
This is a shocking rate of failure that leads to crime being far higher than it should be. Reform is desperately needed.
But publication of the Charlie Taylor review into the youth justice system was delayed for six months because of the EU referendum and subsequent Cabinet reshuffle.
But I can reveal that it will be coming out on Tuesday.
The main recommendation is to replace young offender institutions with secure schools.
These would be designed to ensure those given a custodial sentence learn the basics of English and Maths, so there is a much better chance of them not reoffending.
I understand Justice Secretary Liz Truss’s ambition is to have all such children in secure schools
Worst yet to come?
MATTEO RENZI’S resignation as Italian PM after the defeat of his constitutional reform referendum was a blow to the European project.
But a far bigger blow to it could come when Italy next goes to the polls.
There is a growing chance it might elect the eurozone’s first anti-euro government.
This would threaten the EU’s most important political project and be an even bigger crisis for it than Brexit.
Theresa May tackling far-right extremism?
I UNDERSTAND next week the Government will proscribe as a terrorist group the far-right organisation that celebrated Jo Cox’s brutal murder.
Since her time as Home Secretary, Theresa May has been concerned about far-right extremism.
Her team worry that it and Islamist extremism feed off each other.
Dealing with both is crucial to Britain’s future security.
Ken Clarke isn't most Tory MPs
MOST Tory MPs wouldn’t heckle their chief whip – the man in charge of party discipline. But Ken Clarke isn’t most Tory MPs.
He was the only rebel in the Europe vote this week.
At a party, Gavin Williamson, the chief whip, urged a group of Tory MPs to behave.
To which Clarke shot back: “The last time I was the most rebellious backbencher, they put me in the Shadow Cabinet.”
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.