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'BORROWED TIME'
Wagner group boss’ fiery death spells certain end of feared mercenary unit’s fighting force but empowers Putin in Russia
BLOODTHIRSTY Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was living on "borrowed time" when his plane was reportedly shot down over Russia, experts have claimed.
The 62-year-old mercenary leader who formerly worked as Vladimir Putin's chef is suspected to have been killed after a private jet he was on the passenger list for crashed on Wednesday some 60 miles north of the Russian capital Moscow.
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Prigozhin, a former hotdog vendor-turned-alleged war criminal, led an attempted coup against his former boss in June this year as retaliation for the failure to defeat Ukraine after almost 18 months of conflict.
The private jet was en route to Saint Petersburg when it came down, killing all seven passengers and three members of crew, according to Russian state media.
It was filmed spiraling to the ground before exploding in flames.
Prigozhin's name was on the list of passengers for the flight, Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency was quoted as saying.
The crash is believed to have been caused by a bomb or a missile, with Putin the arch-suspect.
Wagner Group founder Dmitry Utkin is also believed to have been on-board the private jet, according to Russian aviation authorities, with the other passengers thought to consist of the private army's core leadership.
The news came just days after Prigozhin gave his first public appearance since June's attempted mutiny.
Speaking via video, he referred to the Wagner Group's bloody actions in Africa, and bizarrely vowed to make the continent "more free" and make Russia "even greater."
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Experts have told The U.S. Sun that Prigozhin was on "borrowed time" ever since the failed coup and that whether or not he is confirmed to have died in Wednesday's plane crash, it spells the end of the Wagner Group as an independent fighting force.
Speaking to The U.S. Sun, Dmitri Alperovitch, chairman of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, a U.S. bipartisan non-profit policy institute, explained the Wagner Group was effectively "done" as a fighting force.
"If it is indeed true, as reports suggest that it was not just Prigozhin who was on that flight, but the entire Wagner command leadership, that means that Wagner as an organization, as a fighting force is done. It is gone," Dmitri said.
"And that has broad implications. None of them are particularly good for Russia because they can no longer use them in Africa where they've been very successful at spreading Russian influence and locking up natural resources, supporting dictators, and orchestrating coups.
"It also means that any future desires that Russia may have had about using the Wagner troops in the offensive in Ukraine are also now out of the question."
This would be a major obstacle to Putin, who had relied on Prigozhin's more highly-trained killers over his rag-tag armed forces in the war in Ukraine.
Javed Ali, Associate Professor of Practice at the Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, also said it was only a matter of time before Prigozhin suffered the same bloody fate as others who had crossed Putin in the past.
He told The U.S. Sun: "It was clear, I would say even before the attempted mutiny in June, that Prigozhin was living on borrowed time. He had been a thorn in the side of Putin for months.
"As the conflict unfolded, he clearly had crossed some lines in his personal attacks against senior Russian military officials.
"In Putin's Russia, you can only get away with that for so long, even if you're someone like Prigozhin."
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If, in Javed's words, the Wagner Group now "splinters" with Prigozhin out of the way, this will likely facilitate Putin's long-term plan "Not only to eliminate the politically viable threats itself but to subsume the Wagner group formally into the Russian military."
Wagner mercenaries have vowed to avenge the death of warlord Prigozhin in the hours after his reported assassination.
An official Wagner address warned: "We directly say that we suspect the Kremlin officials led by Putin of an attempt to kill him!
"If the information about Prigozhin’s death is confirmed, we will organize a second 'March of Justice' on Moscow!"
The statement directly addressed Putin, adding: "He’d better be alive, it’s in your own interests."
In Putin's Russia, you can only get away with that for so long, even if you're someone like Prigozhin
Javed Ali
Eyewitnesses reported seeing the white Embraer Legacy 600 business jet zig-zagging soon after take-off.
Another jet flying nearby appeared to take evasive action as if dodging a missile.
Prigozhin’s jet plunged, leaving a trail of smoke before exploding in a fireball nine miles from Khotilovo in the Bologovsky district.
A second plane belonging to Prigozhin was later reported to have landed in Moscow having avoided disaster.
One eyewitness said there were two explosions before the plane fell out of the sky.
Putin appeared unmoved as the news broke and was filmed continuing with an engagement at a concert in Kursk.
A pro-war Russian Telegram channel announced: "Wagner is beheaded" as aides confirmed his death.
But another source said: "Don’t rush to bury him," following claims his death could have been "staged" — as in 2019 when he was declared dead in Africa.
One witness was heard saying on video as the plane fell and appeared to lose a wing: "A plane fell out of the sky. The pilot ejected, something is swirling in the air, do you see some part of it?"
TV propagandist Margarita Simonyan, head of the pro-Putin RT media empire, said: "Among the versions under discussion is a staging.
"But personally, I’m leaning towards the more obvious one."
White House National Security spokesperson Adrienne Watson last night said it is "no surprise if Prigozhin has been killed."
Neither Dmitri nor Javed ruled out that this was an accident, potentially a result of jittery Russian air defense teams responding to recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow.
"I think this weakens Russia's geopolitical position," Dmitri said. "Particularly in Africa, and it also limits their options in Ukraine.
"It may actually strengthen Putin domestically because he looked very weak in the last two months following this mutiny, having not dealt with Prigozhin, and having let him live and operate freely in Russia."
He went on: "Regardless of whether Putin was or was not responsible for this plane crash, there are no circumstances under which most of Russia will not believe that he was responsible.
"And that will help him domestically in looking stronger than he appeared in the last two months."
Dmitri added: "I don't think there are many people right now, besides a few African dictators that are shedding any tears for Prigozhin's demise.
"And overall this is a good thing for the West because Wagner was an effective fighting force in Ukraine and elsewhere, and to have it be decimated, as reports are suggesting, is a positive for everyone."
All eyes are now on the Kremlin, where Putin is reported to have returned from Kursk tonight, and on the international community, both allies of Russia and Ukraine.
President Biden has responded to the news, saying he was "not surprised" at news of Prigozhin's apparent assassination.
Speaking from Lake Tahoe, California, where the President has been vacationing, he appeared to blame Putin for the attack, telling reporters: "There is not much that happens in Russia that Putin is not behind, but I don’t know enough to know the answer."
A video released Wednesday night shows three men purported to be Wagner soldiers in Belarus speaking in response to the news.
In the video, the men, dressed in military fatigues with their faces covered, say, appear to threaten retaliation.
One says: "There's a lot of talk right now about what the Wagner Group will do.
"We can tell you one thing. We are getting started. Get ready for us."
Pro-Wagner groups on the Telegram messaging app have also called for mass coordinated demonstrations across Russia, beginning Sunday at midday Moscow time (7am EDT).
Despite that, experts have said that most Russians will have been expecting some kind of repercussions for Prigozhin following June's attempted coup.
"I don't think anyone is going to be surprised that this happened," Javed said.
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"Prigozhin has presented such a different profile in Russia over the past couple of years to before where it seemed like he was much more under Putin's control.
"But most security analysts would have said that something terrible was gonna happen to Prigozhin eventually. If it is as we suspect, I think this would have been the fate that a lot of people like myself would have expected to happen."
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