5 things the stunning Liberal Democrat victory over Zac Goldsmith in the Richmond Park by-election tells us about British politics
BRITISH politics has woken up to yet another 2016 shock after Zac Goldsmith lost his seat to Lib Dems in the Richmond Park by-election.
But what does Sarah Olney's stunning victory over the anti-Heathrow campaigner mean? Here are five things we've learned:
Heathrow expansion is closer than ever to happening
It might not have been the reason the by-election was won or lost, but the reason we had a contest in the first place was Heathrow.
Zac Goldsmith had said he would resign if the west London airport got the go-ahead to expand, and that’s exactly what he did when it was given the green light to build a new runway last month.
But although the woman who defeated him is also anti-Heathrow, the fact the former Tory ran on an explicit anti-Heathrow protest ticket and lost will be a boost to Theresa May’s hopes of getting this through.
And the removal of one of the most vocal campaigners from the House of Commons means that the long-awaited attempts to build a third runway are a little bit closer.
Labour are doing even worse than we thought
It was a great night for the Lib Dems. It was a bad night for Labour.
Although supporters will claim votes were lent to Sarah Olney to help oust a Tory MP, there is no getting away from the fact Christian Wolmar polled just 1,515.
The local party tweeted recently it had 1,600 members. And in 2015 they got more than 7,000 votes.
The transport campaigner was not the best candidate they could have fielded – he finished fifth out of five in their Labour mayoral selection this year – and his weird views may not have helped.
But with just 3.67% of the vote it is the first time Labour has lost their deposit in a by-election since Henley in 2008, when they finished fifth behind even the BNP.
That was while a deeply unpopular Gordon Brown was Prime Minister, and Britain was in the grip of the financial crisis.
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Elections will now be run on Brexit/Remain lines
Zac Goldsmith won comfortably in 2010 to steal the seat from the Lib Dems, and returned to the Commons last year with a whopping majority of 23,000.
But there is one major thing which has happened to UK politics since then, and it proved to be decisive in this race.
The pro-Brexit candidate lost to the pro-Remain candidate in a constituency which voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU in June’s referendum, which in the end is not that surprising.
What is interesting though is what this means for all future votes.
If you are a pro-Brexit Tory waking up in a constituency which voted Remain, you might be starting to worry about your prospects in 2020.
And to the many pro-EU Labour MPs representing areas which voted resoundingly to quit Brussels, the signs are not great.
Theresa May's slim Commons majority is even smaller
While Theresa May might not be too sad to see the rebellious Zac Goldsmith go, the loss of a Tory member of Parliament from the Government benches will be much less welcome.
His defeat further shrinks her already slim Government majority, which is now at a working figure of 12.
This makes it even easier for rebels on her own side to put pressure on the PM to get votes through the Commons, of which there are a growing number.
And the shot across the bows the people of the leafy London suburb delivered also kills off any lingering chances that Mrs May would call a snap General Election anytime soon.
If an MP, even one whose star is massively on the wane, can lose a majority of more than 20,000 – then times are far too unpredictable in this year of shocks to go back to the polls with any confidence.
But the Lib Dems shouldn’t get too carried away
Since their catastrophic clubbing at the ballot box in May 2015, the Lib Dems have been looking for any sign of a so-called ‘Lib Dem fightback’.
Last night was their most significant moment since Nick Clegg was forced to stand down as leader, but they should not get carried away.
They have increased their presence in the House of Commons by 12.5% - but that is from eight to just nine MPs.
And despite Ms Olney hailing the Richmond result as a rejection of a “hard Brexit”, she only got 20,000 votes, and Leave got 17 million.
The fact is the UK is still leaving the EU, and last night will not change that.