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'JUST THE BEGINNING'
I’m Putin’s ‘number one enemy’ – here’s why Wagner Group rebellion isn’t over and will end in bloodshed
WAGNER Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's violent uprising is "just the beginning" and it is not going to end well for Vladimir Putin, warned Putin's "number one enemy" Bill Browder.
Russia was rocked by 24 hours of carnage yesterday which saw Vladimir Putin accuse his former pal of treason and Prigozhin march on the capital with 25,000 soldiers.
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But then the situation rapidly de-escalated within a matter of hours - with Wagner vowing to move to Belarus and Prigozhin being met by his fighters like a conquering hero as he returned to Rostov-on-Don.
Browder - a US-born US-born British financier and political activist dubbed "Putin's No.1 Enemy" for his efforts to expose Vlad - told The Sun that trust in Russia is broken.
And he explained the future of the federation hangs in the balance.
The Wagner mercenary agreed last night to "stop the movement of armed persons" after attempting a rebellion against Russia and Putin.
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Prigozhin's soldiers have now turned back to their bases after agreeing to de-escalate the rebellion to "avoid bloodshed".
Despite the temporary peace in Russia, Browder told The Sun Online he doesn't think there's a way to de-escalate.
"Putin can't forgive somebody who has disrespected him in such a powerful way," said Mr Browder.
"Putin already tried to kill Prigozhin, and he [Prigozhin] understands they'll probably try it again. I think nobody trusts anyone now."
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Prigozhin's blatant criticisms of Kremlin leadership - including defence minister Sergei Shoigu and top military boss General Valery Gerasimov - have raised eyebrows across the globe.
And there are now more questions than answers as to what truly happened yesterday after Russia so rapidly stepped back from the brink of full civil war.
With military planes being shot down, helicopter battles, and armed convoys storming toward Moscow - it looked like the life expectancy of Putin's regime could be measured in hours.
Wagner drew within 120 miles of the capital, only to then suddenly back down - with Prigozhin vowing to move to Belarus and the Kremlin withdrawing the arrest warrant against him.
What we know:
- Wagner Group forces were in open rebellion as an arrest warrant was issued for warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin
- Putin delivered an early morning address, raging: "This is treason"
- Mercenary company marched on Moscow with 25,000 soldiers after crossing border from the battlefields in Ukraine
- And then an eleventh-hour intervention seemingly saw Prigozhin agree to stand down his men
- Rishi Sunak called a Cobra meeting as the UK monitored the situation along with the rest of the West
- Ukraine celebrated the infighting in Russia - and said it showed weakness
- Wagner troops engaged with Russian military forces on the road to Moscow
- Helicopters and a spy plane were reportedly been shot down, and an oil depot was blown up
- Wagner warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin claims he wants to oust the Russian military top brass
- Prigozhin flees to Belarus and arrest warrant is dropped in Kremlin deal brokered by Lukashenko
- Wagner forces retreat and leave Russia's military HQ
Samantha de Bendern, a Russia expert at Chatham House, told The Sun Online: "Prigozhin has had to have support from Putin or from someone else to be able to behave the way he has.
“But now the gloves are off... This may well be the end of Prigozhin, but it could also be the end of Putin.”
If tensions in Russia continue to simmer even as the situation begins to "de-escalate", the future for the federation is grim.
James Rodgers, former BBC Moscow correspondent and professor at City University London, said the similarities between today's events and past upheaval in Russia are clear.
He said: "There are parallels with big changes in Russia coming about because wars were unsuccessful, such as the 1905 Revolution because Russia lost the war with Japan, which preceded the 1917 revolution.
"The Soviet Union’s defeat in Afghanistan was also a factor in the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.
"I don’t think we're there yet - but this is a hugely significant moment in Russian history, this open defiance and willingness to rise up and take arms against the state authorities."
Prigozhin formerly warned that if "ordinary Russians" continue getting their children back in coffins while the children of the elite "sun themselves abroad", Russia would face turmoil along the lines of the 1917 revolutions.
Browder said: "Let's just say that this just says that this thing does de-escalate - there's gonna be a massive purge of the Kremlin like we've never seen before.
"Putin is going to go after everybody he distrusts in every possible way and it's going to be a total disaster for all people inside the establishment as Putin tests their loyalty - because this is the scariest thing that has ever happened to Putin.
"They've emptied out the prisons, and now they're going to fill them up with perceived enemies of the regime.
"I don't think anything is over. I think it's just beginning."
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Prigozhin was seen grinning and shaking hands with his supporters as he returned to Rostov-on-Don last night - the first city his forces seized during the rebellion.
He didn't look like a man retreating with his tail between his legs and being forced to live in exile.
The exact details of the "deal" he struck with the Kremlin remain unclear - and the situation is likely to continue to unfold in the coming days and weeks.
Putin yesterday faced the biggest challenge to his iron fist rule since he rose to power in the aftermath of the collapsed Soviet Union and took control of the Kremlin more than two decades ago.
Prigozhin had vowed to "punish" Russia after he blamed the Kremlin for a deadly missile attack on one of his training camps in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.
The warlord - a former pal of Putin's - led the armed rebellion with the stated aim to oust Russia's military leaders as he turned on the top brass in Moscow.
Putin raged "this is treason" in an astonishing early morning TV address to the nation which showed he wasn't backing down.
Within hours of a 400-vehicle convoy rolling onto Russian soil from Ukraine, Wagner troops seized control of Russia’s regional military HQ in Rostov-on-Don.
They rode heavy military machinery, tanks and trucks.
Prigozhin bragged his men — believed to be better equipped than the Russian army — did not need to fire a single shot as they took control of the HQ.
He said: “The border guards greeted us and hugged our fighters. If anyone gets in our way, we will destroy everything. We are going all the way.”
But then in an astonishing turnaround with his forces some 120 miles from Moscow, Prigozhin claimed he was ready to back down.
In an audio message to his troops, he ordered them to return to their bases to "avoid bloodshed".
“We’re turning around our convoys and going in the opposite direction," he said in a voice message published by his Concord firm.
Prigozhin's forces have begun to pull out of the Rostov region and Russia's military HQ in a dramatic u-turn.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a deal was struck "avoiding bloodshed, internal confrontation, and clashes with unpredictable results was the highest goal".
He described the drama as “fairly difficult” and “full of tragic events”.
It is unclear if Prigozhin's demands were met after he asked for the defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the general staff Valery Gerasimov to be fired.
Videos showed forces in Rostov cheering after the apparent de-escalation while residents shouted support for the mercenary group.
It could now prove to be a difficult few days for Putin as he desperately tries to cling to power and save his strong-man image.
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Defence Select Committee chair Tobias Ellwood MP told The Sun on Sunday: “In his 23 years in power, Putin has never been challenged like this.
“When Kremlin politics turn it happens very quickly.”
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