US military expert who predicted Crimea and Ukraine invasions claims WORLD WAR 3 will start in Latvia
Putin will use underhand tactics to annex Baltic state, Washington professor forecasts
DONALD TRUMP faces the dilemma of whether defending a Baltic NATO member against Putin is worth sparking World War 3, a influential defence expert has claimed.
A Third World War is set to be ignited in Latvia if the United States comes to the rescue of the Baltic country, according to Professor Paul D Miller.
The respected expert from the National Defence University in Washington DC predicted the invasion of Crimea in 2014.
And now the professor believes Latvia or possibly neighbouring Estonia are next on Russia’s hit-list.
But since the Baltic nations are in NATO, all members are compelled to come to its rescue under Article Five of an alliance treaty - sparking World War 3.
The warning comes as Russian strongman Vladimir Putin claimed today he was mending broken ties with Trump-led America following his annexation of Crimea and continuing support for Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
During his campaign, Trump expressed reservations about pitching in to help NATO allies.
But Professor Miller believes Putin would not invade the tiny country of two million people with conventional troops.
Related stories
Instead the hard-line Russian leader would insight civil unrest among ethnic Russians who make up 25% of the population.
“He will not send large formations of uniformed Russian soldiers over the international border - even the most cautious NATO members will not ignore an overt conventional invasion,” Professor Miller writes in Foreignpolicy.com.
“Instead, Putin will instigate an ambiguous militarised crisis using deniable proxies, probably in the next two years.
“Perhaps Russian-speaking Latvians or Estonians will begin rioting, protesting for their rights, claiming to be persecuted, asking for “international protection.
“A suspiciously well armed and well trained ‘Popular Front for the Liberation of the Russian Baltics’ will appear.
“A few high-profile assassinations and bombings bring the Baltics to the edge of civil war.
“A low-grade insurgency may emerge.”
After using its veto at the UN to block an international peacekeeping force, Professor Miller predicts Putin will intervene under the pretext of settling the conflict.
Observers agree that Putin’s Russia favours “hybrid warfare” over conventional attacks.
This blend of unconventional and conventional war can involve agents or militias not officially attached to a country’s forces.
Sometimes it aims to create a climate that justifies military intervention.
This underhand technique is said to have been used to seize Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
Agents are said to have whipped-up tension among Crimeans with Russian heritage and under a pretext of helping them, Russia annexed the Black Sea nation.
Elsewhere Moscow is accused of sponsoring militias for their ends.
As reported, Montenegrin prime minister Milo Djukanovic has accused of conspiring to murder him in a sinister bid to curtail NATO power.
Prosecutors in the Balkan state have revealed explosive claims that nationalists from Russia hatched a plan to have a sniper shoot dead the leader as part of a coup attempt.
The conspirators are said to want to stop the tiny country – which used to be part of Yugoslavia – from ever joining NATO.
They have been accused of plotting to do this by toppling the pro-Western government and replacing it with a Moscow friendly one.
Putin said Russia would take countermeasures in response to any more NATO expansion, RIA news agency quoted him as saying today.
"Why are we reacting to NATO expansion so emotionally? We are concerned by NATO's decision making.”
Another spot predicted to be at the centre of a new world war is the Suwalki Gap connects Moscow’s ally Belarus to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
It is here Russia’s huge Baltic Fleet is based, as are multiple Russian air bases and a new Iskander-M missile system – nuclear warheads capable of hitting targets 310 miles away.
Do you have a story for The Sun Online news team? Email us at [email protected] or call 0207 782 4368