Chancellor Philip Hammond may be dull but he’s the man to get Britain ready for Brexit
Unlike his predecessor George Osbourne, Hammond is no political showman but his budget will focus on productivity to help us through our leave from the EU
“DON’T expect some big fiscal boost” in the autumn statement, one Secretary of State told me after the Cabinet were given an update on it.
With the economy doing better post-referendum than the Treasury expected, there’ll be no dramatic measures announced by Philip Hammond on Wednesday.
Partly this is a product of Hammond’s personality.
George Osborne was a political showman, he loved saving the most startling announcement until last.
Hammond, by contrast, will — in the words of one Cabinet ally — be “sober” in his delivery.
“There will be no rabbits out of hats”, one Downing Street source confirms.
But it is also because the new Chancellor doesn’t have much room to manoeuvre.
He’s emphasised to Cabinet colleagues that even if the reduction in the growth forecasts by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility did not seem huge they would have a big cumulative effect, limiting how much Government could spend.
He also warned that lower growth forecasts combined with some statistical changes meant that the UK’s debt to GDP ratio could be forecast to be 90 per cent plus, which is uncomfortably close to the level at which markets get worried.
Hammond, though, does have plans.
“Productivity is going to be his big focus,” one Cabinet Minister says.
So, expect lots on infrastructure.
He’ll move to ease commuter pain by shifting capital spending to road and rail projects that can be completed quickly, easing congestion.
There will also be plans to get far more houses built.
Hammond is fascinated by how technology can make the country more efficient.
He likes to ask colleagues to imagine how much better it would be if trains could run on main lines as frequently as they can on the Tube’s Jubilee Line, where they run every few minutes.
But it won’t just be Hammond speaking about the economy next week — Theresa May will outline the Government’s industrial strategy at the CBI conference on Monday.
May will emphasise that she is pro-business, but that doesn’t just mean getting out of the way.
She’ll say she wants to see growth all over the country, not just in London.
She will emphasise how much richer the UK would be if the rest of the country was as productive as the capital is.
When this industrial strategy was presented to Cabinet this week by the Business Secretary Greg Clark, he emphasised he wanted things that are invented here to be manufactured here.
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But the industrial strategy is not as radical a break with previous Conservative thinking as some were expecting.
There might be Cabinet agreement about putting workers on boards but there is, I’m told, still no workable plan on how to make this happen.
Over the next few years, the UK economy needs to get in shape for Brexit.
This means building the infrastructure necessary for a world-class economy, super-fast communications and efficient transport networks, and removing unnecessary red tape.
Hammond might not be Britain’s most exciting politician, but he’s well suited to this job.
Quit EU 'to the letter'
FOR the first time since Theresa May’s Tory conference speech on Brexit, Tory Eurosceptics are making a concerted push to toughen her negotiating position.
I understand that in the coming days, a letter will be published emphasising that Brexit means leaving both the EU single market and the customs union.
The letter, which is being organised by Tory MP Steve Baker ( who was key to getting far more Tory MPs than expected to back Leave ahead of the referendum) will be signed by scores of backbenchers.
I understand that the four most prominent Tory Brexiteers not in the government – Michael Gove, Theresa Villiers, John Whittingdale and Dominic Raab – have all lent their names to it.
One of those who has signed emphasises that the letter is not meant as a hostile act: “We’re not pushing at a closed door, but trying to reinforce the direction of travel.”
They point out leaving the single market is “the logic of what she said on free movement and ECJ jurisdiction” at conference.
While the Department for International Trade that she has set up will be redundant if Britain remains inside the customs union, as we won’t be able to do our own free trade deals.
The hope is that the letter will offset some of the pressure coming from Remainers .
But it is also a reminder to May that there are lots of Tories determined to see that Brexit really means Brexit.
Build on Donald's Brexit joy
DONALD TRUMP wants Brexit to succeed and is prepared to expend political capital to make that happen, according to those close to him.
Those who have spoken to Trump since his shock victory, say he doesn’t think he’d be president but for Brexit.
Trump thinks the fact Britain voted to leave the EU showed he was right about what was worrying people.
Leave aside that his victory and Brexit were two very different events, Trump’s emotional connection to Brexit is something this country should seek to take full advantage of.
Those advising Trump are keen on a rapid UK-US trade deal post-Brexit.
They say they are not against all trade deals, but just ones with low-wage economies that they argue lead to the loss of manufacturing jobs back home.
No one thinks an agreement with the UK would lead to workers being undercut in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Theresa May’s Cabinet have yet to discuss Trump’s victory.
But the Government need to ensure they seize the opportunities presented by Trump’s enthusiasm for Brexit.
We must soothe weepy Wolfgangs
GERMAN Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble likes to be the hard man in any negotiation.
This week he’s been warning that Britain might have to pay in to the EU budget until 2030 and that there can be no single market membership without accepting free movement.
Now, this is obviously Schäuble seeking to set out a position ahead of the exit talks.
But it also reflects something else, his upset that Britain is leaving – which will lead to Germany having to pay much more into the EU budget and weaken the free market forces within the bloc.
Schäuble has told colleagues that when he woke up and heard the referendum result on June 24, he physically cried.
Time will, to some extent, heal these wounds.
But Britain also needs to do more to ease these feelings of rejection.
For the UK to get the best deal, there needs to be far more of an emphasis on how this country still wants to play its role in Europe, helping with security and the like.
Trump's love affair with the Royals
THE US president-elect is very keen on the Royal Family.
In his call with Theresa May, he told her his Scottish-born mother was a big fan of the Queen and asked the PM to pass on his best wishes to Her Majesty.
With No 10 keen on a Trump visit to the UK as soon as possible after him taking office, it can’t be long before The Donald meets the Queen – and that will be quite a sight.