US is ‘not well prepared’ for war with China over Taiwan and we could see World War II scenario, expert warns
THE US is not well-prepared for a war against China over Taiwan, a top foreign policy expert has warned.
Michael O'Hanlon told The U.S. Sun that if a conflict were to materialize, it would be similar to the horrors of World War II.
China considers Taiwan to be a renegade island and annexation is a vital component of President Xi's rejuvenation ambitions.
Xi vowed that Beijing would never abandon its option of using force to unify the island as a last resort, sparking fears that a future war could erupt.
O'Hanlon, a senior fellow and director of research in Foreign Policy at The Brookings Institution, revealed that neither the US nor China is ready for war.
He said: "The US is not well prepared, but the good news is that China is not prepared for conflict either.
“Notions of a US-China conflict have been tossed around as if it would be a harder version of the wars America has been fighting for the last 20 years.
“It would be much more akin to World War II in all likelihood.”
O’Hanlon believes that it is unlikely that a war would break amid the huge risks and consequences.
He said: “This scenario would be extremely difficult for all sides which probably means that it won’t happen because I don’t think anyone’s going to be foolish enough to try their luck, recklessly try attacks, and tempt fate.”
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O'Hanlon warned that a hypothetical conflict would last for “quite some time," adding the US would face "logistical constraints."
He said: "If the US fought China over Taiwan, we would undoubtedly encounter huge, huge problems that we’ve not anticipated."
Retired US Air Force Brigadier-General Robert Spalding warned that the goal of the Chinese military would be to “take Taiwan out” before American forces have a chance to respond.
He told The U.S. Sun: “The US would have to ramp up its ability to support the conflict.
"By the time it had increased production capacity, the conflict would be over.
“The US relies heavily on China for a good deal of its supply chain, and that would be cut off.
“That makes it even more problematic as we would have to try and recreate those supply chains to flow resources to Taiwan. So, the response would be too little too late.”
It's not yet known when or if Beijing will attack Taiwan, but Spalding claimed US officials have privately the island's fate.
But, China is striving to become the world's dominant superpower.
Pentagon officials have warned that Beijing possesses the largest Navy in terms of fleet size and in 2022, the Chinese military budget increased to $230billion.
It marked a 7.1 percent rise compared to 2021.
China could expand its fleet from approximately 340 vessels to 440 by 2030.
Meanwhile, the size of the American fleet is languishing under 300, per the US Navy’s Navigation Plan.
WAR FEARS
US General Mike Minihan, of the Air Mobility Command, warned that a war over Taiwan could break out in two years.
A memo was issued to the command’s leadership that said: “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025.”
Michael McCaul, the House Foreign Affairs Chair, told he hopes Minihan is wrong but “I think he is right, though.”
But, Minihan’s views are not reflective of those at the Pentagon.
Minihan's comments came just days before one of the most significant flashpoints between the two superpowers in years occurred over a surveillance balloon.
Admiral Philip Davidson (retired) warned that the annexation of Taiwan could be high on Xi’s list of priorities.
He said: “I worry that they’re accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they’ve long said that they want to do that by 2050. I’m worried about them moving that target closer.
'CREATING A LEGACY'
"Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then. And I think the threat is [sic] manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.”
The year 2027 has been touted as a potential date in line with the start of Xi’s fourth term as president.
In 2018, the Chinese premier scrapped presidential term limits.
Taiwan's foreign minister, Joseph Wu, told that Xi may want to create a legacy.
He said: "In 2027, Xi Jinping is likely to go into his fourth term, and, if in his previous three terms, he cannot claim any achievement during his office, he might need to think about something else for him to claim as his achievement or his legacy.
“If Xi Jinping cannot change the situation domestically in China, you might want to resort to a use of force or creating a crisis externally to divert domestic attention or to show to the Chinese that he has accomplished something.”
Wu admitted that Taiwan could be used to divert attention away from the country’s domestic issues.
Xi came under fire last year after China recorded one of its worst economic performances in almost 50 years amid its disastrous zero Covid policy.
Top naval expert Sam Tangredi said he doesn't expect a conflict to erupt in 2027, but warned a war may break out in the coming decades.
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He said: “I don't think there will be a war between the US and China in 2027, but there will be one sometime close to 2049."
Xi has said Beijing should have a world-class military by 2049 that can challenge America's superiority.
