Hillary Clinton has a 90 per cent chance of winning, polls show – with Trump needing a huge surge in white male voters to win the presidency
PRESIDENTIAL wannabe and Hillary Clinton has a 90 per cent chance of defeating Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll.
Any upset by Trump today depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the findings.
Democrat Clinton was leading Republican Trump by about 45 per cent to 42 per cent in the popular vote, and was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, the survey found.
This would clear the 270 votes she needs to win the presidency.
Trump's chances rest with his performance in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on when polling ended Sunday.
He also needs to do well in Pennsylvania where Clinton is enjoying a slim lead of three percentage points.
For Trump to win he will have to take most of those states.
Any combination of two losses in the three states of Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania would almost assuredly result in a Clinton victory.
At the same time, Trump must hold onto the traditionally Republican state of Arizona, where the race has drawn close, and hope that independent candidate Evan McMullin does not claim another Republican bastion, Utah.
Trump needs higher turnout among Republican white voters than that which materialised in 2012, a drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted increase in Hispanic voters, the project showed.
North Carolina, one of the first states to report results on Tuesday night, might provide clues to the outcome.
If Clinton wins the state it probably means African Americans are turning out to vote at a similar rate to 2012, when President Barack Obama beat Republican Mitt Romney by four points nationally.
Romney won North Carolina by two points.
The States of the Nation poll found that early votes have been cast evenly between Trump and Clinton in North Carolina. Trump enjoyed a slim one-point advantage among all likely voters, 47 per cent to Clinton’s 46.
He had a 30-percentage point lead among white voters while Clinton led by about 85 points among black voters.
Florida, with its 29 electoral college votes, is crucial to Trump.
If Clinton wins Florida she just needs to win one of the three big swing states of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump would have to win all three.
If he succeeds in Florida, Trump still must win both Ohio and Michigan or hope for an upset in Pennsylvania.
Clinton enjoys the tiniest of leads in Florida, 48 per cent to 47.
She leads Trump by 75 points among black voters and has about a 20 point lead among Hispanics.
Trump enjoys a 30-point lead among likely white voters.
Clinton’s success in Florida depends on heavy turnout among black voters.
Without it the race becomes razor-thin even with a large increase in Hispanic ballots.
Michigan and Ohio were too close to call on Sunday, according to the poll.
Clinton’s support is more solid in Pennsylvania.
Still, a surge of white Republican voters combined with a drop in turnout among black Democrats could be enough to tilt Ohio and Michigan to Trump and put Pennsylvania in play.
Polltracker has Clinton five points ahead of Trump in it's prediction of how the election will go - with Clinton on 48.8 points compared to Trump's 43.5.
CBS News has Clinton four points ahead on 45 per cent compared to Trump's 41.
If Trump remains in contention on Tuesday night after the eastern swing states have been decided eyes will turn to Arizona.
Trump led Clinton by five points on Sunday but Arizona had moved steadily toward Clinton in recent weeks, according to the project.
It is also a state where higher Hispanic turnout could tip the result in Clinton’s favour.
If Trump is in a position to win after Arizona, he could still be tripped up by Utah, where McMullin has remained a contender to the end.
Opinion polls have Trump up by five points or more in Utah.
A McMullin upset could set up a low-probability scenario where neither Clinton or Trump reaches the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
The election would then be decided by the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers would have a three-way choice among Trump, Clinton and McMullin, a Utah native and former CIA operative.
HAS AMERICA MADE A BIG MISTAKE?
Have your say on your new speech radio station
BETTER CALL PAUL with Paul Ross today from 9am to 10am on 0344 499 1000.
Listen on DAB, via the talkRADIO app or online at talkradio.co.uk
We pay for your stories! Do you have a story for The Sun Online news team? Email us at tips@the-sun.co.uk or call 0207 782 4368