As Vladimir Putin sends 330,000 troops to the EU border, experts reveal just how much of a threat Russian president is to Europe
Foreign policy expert, military historian and retired general have their say on how the threat from Putin is easily manageable
THE spectre of war in Europe has become all too real as Britain sends planes, tanks and troops east to counter the threat from Russia.
Nato believes that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has amassed 330,000 troops along the border to the EU and its allies.
While some politicians think the Russian leader is only sabre rattling, others believe we need to take the build-up very seriously.
Here Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform think tank, military historian Professor Mark Almond and retired General Mike Jackson have their say.
Ian Bond: ‘We should be resolute rather than frightened’
YOU have to see Russia as a threat because their military doctrine is clear – they see Nato as their main opponent – and they are exercising in ways which are quite aggressive.
In 2009 they carried out a military exercise which included a simulated nuclear strike on the Polish capital Warsaw.
That is threatening and you can’t bury your head in the sand and say nothing has changed. From Putin’s point of view the ideal situation is that you intimidate Nato countries so much you can ask for anything and get it without having to use force.
A lot of the talk about 330,000 troops amassed along Europe’s borders is intended to make our politicians say we must give Putin what he wants at any cost.
For example, Putin might ask for Nato to move its forces 100 miles back from Russia’s border. If you show that you are not prepared to go down that road, then you are less likely to end up with a serious miscalculation by Russia.
Nato wouldn’t be a pushover in a war and Putin would be wrong to think we would be.
Britain and the French have capable military forces, while Germany, Poland and Turkey also have considerable forces.
None of these countries would be so militarily overwhelmed by Russia that the US wouldn’t be able to get there quickly enough.
He has shown that he is a risk taker, but I think he is a calculated risk taker.
He didn’t move in to Ukraine when it was united, he waited until a new government was being formed and he was able to add to that uncertainty.
He is not crazy. The people who win in poker games aren’t the ones who risk everything on everything.
They are the ones who look at the odds, look at how they can make their opponents think they have a stronger hand than they do . . . and then strike.
Putin is much more in that mode than “roll the dice and see what turns up”.
All the talk of Russia’s readiness for war is to make nervous Western politicians say: “Gosh, we should make plenty of concessions to the Russians because they are obviously very angry.”
Russians brandishing weapons do have a frightening effect on some Europeans.
But we should be resolute rather than be frightened. There is a threat there as there was during the Cold War.
The way we responded to that threat was not by making concessions, but by standing firm and letting the Russians know that if they try anything they will get a very bloody nose.
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The fact that Nato is deploying small but significant forces to its most vulnerable Eastern allies is important.
The numbers of troops we are putting in eastern Europe are not intended to be able to push back the entire Russian army.
But they are designed to say to the Russians that if you mess around with our Nato allies then you are messing around with us.
Britain, France and the US are all nuclear powers so we are saying to the Russians be careful what you do.
For a long time after the Cold War, Nato didn’t make contingency plans for defending new members in eastern Europe because it wanted to show it didn’t think Russia was the enemy any more, which was a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
But as Russia has started to behave in a more aggressive way towards its neighbours it has become unsustainable to pretend nothing is happening.
Professor Mark Almond: ‘Fight that Russia wouldn't win’
IF Vladimir Putin were to attack, say, Estonia in the Baltic, that would start a war with the rest of Nato and would be horrendous.
It would also be a war that Russia wouldn’t win.
In a conventional war between Russia and Nato they would lose. Russia has a military force comparable to France, if you put aside nuclear weapons.
The Russians have in their armed forces 120,000 first-quality troops.
Even if they have 330,000 troops on the border with eastern Europe many are the equivalent of burger flippers and not well equipped.
They have spent a lot of money on modernising their air force, conventional missiles and tanks.
Their effective army is just a bit bigger than Britain’s effective army. Our army is very well trained, but it is now effectively 85,000 strong in terms of troops.
Aircraft carrier The Admiral Kuznetsov is of Ark Royal vintage – and the British ship was decommissioned in 1979.
However, it does have a fearsome armoury, with modern Cruise missiles and planes. And the Russian MiG-29 proved to be better than the RAFs Typhoon in a recent test.
Our Navy is a bit stretched at the moment, but will be strong again in a few years once we have the new aircraft carriers.
But we have the US as an ally, whose Navy is 16 times as strong as Russia’s. It’s almost impossible to exaggerate the power of the United States.
Mike Jackson: ‘No match for the U.S.’
VLADIMIR PUTIN said that the worst thing which happened in the 20th century was the fall of the Soviet Union, so that’s worse than two World Wars and the Holocaust for him.
He is trying to re-state that Russia is a serious world power which doesn’t agree with everything the West does and indeed stands for.
Russia’s message is: “We are our own country and you should bear that in mind.”
If Putin were to start an operation against the Baltic states he is risking everything.
While he is a chancer, I don’t think he is irrational. There is no comparison between the forces of the United States and Russia. Putin’s men are no match for America. Even the combined forces of Nato’s European nations are a match for Russia.
Russia has a large army, about 800,000 troops, and we are down to about 80,000.
The idea of the United Kingdom taking on Russia alone doesn’t add up militarily. It would be Nato against Russia.
It would be impossible for the United States not to be concerned about a Russian military adventure into the Baltic states.
That would be upping the ante like fury.