Brexit will be a success if Theresa May addresses business fears to get elites as much on her side as Middle England
The PM has won round an important part of the public, but to unite this divided country she must stop bashing the free market and start listening to business
THERE are, once again, several Britains – and they are no longer even speaking the same language.
Middle England is delighted by our new Government and its take on the world.
The latest opinion polls are phenomenal. The Tories have hit 43 per cent, the sort of heights last reached at the 1983 General Election.
Theresa May’s party, buoyed by huge support from women and older voters, has taken a 17-point lead against Labour, according to ICM, its largest while in power since 1987. This triumph has gone almost unnoticed, for one simple reason.
Elite Britain, a much smaller but hugely influential section of the population, is aghast and in open revolt.
It cannot believe that the Tories are truly intent on pulling us out of the EU and that they even want to limit immigration.
In provincial, post-referendum, post-Blair/Cameron England and Wales, the Prime Minister’s style, approach and rhetoric chimes with the new mood.
In Westminster, the City and Canary Wharf, her pronouncements have been met with incomprehension, anger and another substantial sell-off of the Pound.
The problem, of course, is that both groups are getting this wrong. Elite Britain is hopelessly over-gloomy about the future and chillingly contemptuous of democracy.
Bizarrely for a meritocratic class that is usually so self-confident in its own abilities, it is convinced that the UK is a desperate supplicant, with little to offer.
A small minority of its members even seem, at times, to be willing on Armageddon, deducing that only a full-blown financial crisis could yet stop Brexit and convince the public it now so despises of the error of their ways.
This is madness.
But Middle England and the Government are also mistaken. Brexit is a great opportunity for Britain but it needs to be executed correctly.
Bashing business and the free market never works. Crude combinations of populism, socialism and nationalism inevitably end in tears.
The City is a crucial source of jobs and wealth. It is worth fighting for.
We need deregulation, not more labour-market rules.
We need a migration system that is acceptable to a newly empowered country and works for an economy at full employment, not one that is obsessed with a target made up on the hoof by the previous government.
The Government must also remember that kite-flying is not a good way of making economic policy.
Its loose thoughts on quantitative easing, fiscal policy and companies that hire migrants have rattled the financial markets, adding to the sense of doom in some boardrooms.
In reality, the Pound had long been overvalued. Its decline will reduce the current-account deficit by redirecting consumers to domestic goods and services and making it easier for firms to sell wares abroad.
But caution is essential in this febrile, nervy atmosphere.
Caution is essential in this febrile, nervy atmosphere.
The Government’s biggest mistake so far lies in its approach to Brexit.
Plan A was to disclose as little as possible for as long as possible, apart from emphasising that there would definitely be greater controls on immigration, and getting government departments to engage in a thorough fact-finding exercise.
Every side would then present its case, the Prime Minister would decide, then she would go into battle. The mantra was all about not giving a running commentary and not revealing the Government’s negotiating hand.
The problem is that this worthy, rational approach has failed.
The Cabinet is at loggerheads on all the fundamental questions. It is unclear whether the Treasury was really planning to recycle the appalling forecasts of the supposed long-term hit to growth from Brexit that it produced under George Osborne.
But the fact that many Brexiteers are convinced this was the plan shows how toxic the situation has already become. Private memos are being leaked, officials are briefing contradictory messages.
All of this has created a vacuum which the Remainers have filled, while traders have become obsessed with every statement, briefing, or rumour, sending the Pound and gilt yields yo-yoing.
The more we hear, the less we know about what the Government would like to achieve in the negotiations, let alone what we will actually end up with.
It’s time for a completely new approach, a Brexit Plan B — and by that I don’t mean a different outcome but a different way of reaching it.
This is not really about debates in Parliament. This is about the PM leading from the front, and the Brexit departments accelerating their work and upping their game.
May needs to start off by making a major, defining speech targeted clearly at Elite Britain, in which she paints a picture of a successful, prosperous and open post-Brexit Britain.
She has spoken to Middle England — now she needs to address business, making it clear that she is confident she will be able to make Brexit an economic success.
The PM has spoken to Middle England - now she must address business to get the whole country on side.
She needs to stress her commitment to maximising free trade, not just with the EU but also with the rest of the world. She would also be well advised to float the possibility of transitional arrangements after 2019.
She needs to name-check key industries, including investment banking and car manufacturing, and make it clear that she understands their concerns about market access and the need for skilled workers.
Last but not least, the speech would explain that Britain is a powerful country that makes a huge economic, financial, cultural and military contribution to Europe and is therefore in a strong negotiating position.
It would need to be accompanied by a series of publications from the Brexit departments, reassessing the costs and benefits of aspects of our EU membership and creating much-needed intellectual ammunition for Brexit.
Take the single market. The European Commission thought that it had boosted EU-wide GDP by just 2.1 per cent in 2008.
David Davis needs to produce a new estimate of this as soon as possible, and he and Liam Fox must commission studies showing what the gains to the UK would be were we able to sign free-trade deals with the world.
May is in an enviable position and enjoys huge backing from the public. But the UK’s Establishment is increasingly and dangerously alienated from Middle England.
To ensure that the UK’s economy does as well as possible over the next few years, the PM must now focus her efforts on reassuring corporate Britain.
© Allister Heath/Telegraph Media Group