Lone wolf attacks will continue terrorising Western cities and it is IMPOSSIBLE to destroy group’s twisted beliefs, experts warn
Conventional warfare is unable to completely halt ISIS, which is increasingly encouraging 'lone wolf' attacks, it is claimed
ISLAMIC State's so-called caliphate has been brutalised in recent months as coalition forces launch "decapitation" drone strikes and pummel its strongholds from the air.
But the twisted ISIS ideology - and the capability of individuals to strike anywhere and anytime - remains a serious threat, experts have warned.
Fears ISIS would regularly launch coordinated assaults on European cities on the scale of the Paris attacks in November have subsided.
However, it is now believed we are facing a new, different wave of terror - that of the lone wolf killer.
A vast majority of attacks in recent months have been carried out by individuals inspired by ISIS propaganda or messages - rather than taking any direction from the group.
Professor Paul Rogers, a consultant for leading British think-tank Oxford Research Group, told the Sun Online these attacks will continue despite ISIS territorial losses.
"They will, and since the air war started over two years ago, ISIS has planned to retaliate through encouraging such attacks."
Noting that ISIS cannot be defeated in the "conventional military sense", he said: "It is very difficult unless the circumstances in which a tiny minority of people are attracted to it are altered."
Professor Rogers, the author of Irregular War: ISIS and the New Threat from the Margins, warned that the UK was "hardly trying" to dissuade radicalisation.
Dr David Lowe, a terrorism expert at Liverpool John Moores University, said geographic gains against ISIS in the Middle East did not equate to victory.
He said lone wolf attacks were not as effective as coordinated attacks, such as those seen in Paris and Belgium, but they were likely to continue.
Dr Lowe told the Sun Online: "They're still carrying out that encouragement. That message is still coming out to carry out that action."
Perhaps most recently, New York was rocked by a series of pipe bomb explosions and a man stormed a mall in Minnesota, stabbing nine people.
In the UK, ISIS-inspired attacker Muhiddin Mire was recently found guilty of attempted murder after cutting open a random passerby's throat with a bread knife in Leytonstone, London.
Dr Lowe said: "That stabbing in Minnesota, that individual could have been inspired on his own and that's what happens to a lot of them - they get inspired on their own and Islamic State claim them as their soldier.
"It's really hard to stop that - one that stands out to me is the Leytonstone stabbing attack last year. But they are not as effective as those bigger attacks.
"Look at the UK at the moment - they're going through a process of training more officers because they're not dealing on information, it's about deterring and giving the public assurance. In the UK we have been fortunate, but that's due to hard work.
"Islamic State are taking all the headlines, the ideology is very, very difficult to eliminate."
He likened it to the peace agreement seen in Northern Ireland in the 1990s - where today dissident factions remain operating "but they are in the minority".
"I don't think we'll ever defeat it, we still have far right groups. You may never kill an ideology completely. (But) you can eliminate its effectiveness to a great degree."
Jon Alterman, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, concurred, adding: "ISIS can be weakened significantly but it's unlikely ever to surrender".
"As it weakens, it will split and morph into new variants. It is unquestionably growing weaker, but it will remain lethal for quite some time.
"Western states may consider a significantly weakened ISIS 'good enough' to shift focus to other priorities, but that's not the same as defeating it."
IS IT POSSIBLE TO DRIVE ISIS OUT OF SYRIA AND IRAQ?
Professor Greg Barton, a counter terrorism researcher at Deakin University in Australia, said ISIS was effectively "al-Qaeda 3.0".
He said: "Even if the entity known as ISIS disappears there will certainly be an al-Qaeda 4.0 successor. Driving ISIS out of Raqqa and Mosul is likely to prove more difficult than current optimist claims suggest.
"Without a breakthrough solution in the Syrian civil war ISIS is likely to remain entrenched in Raqqa.
"The Iraq Security Forces, with help from the Iranians and the international coalition, may well succeed in driving IS out of Mosul but two obstacles remain: urban warfare is very difficult and brutal (Mosul has over one million hostages under police state control); and secondly, the government of Iraq has yet to show that it can provide a political and social solution to the sectarian injustices that enable ISIS to maintain community support.
"Beyond this, ISIS has shown clear intention to continue to drive a global insurgency.
"Even if forced out of the cities of northern Iraq and Syria ISIS will remain a presence in the countryside and in the towns and cities of surrounding nations, not least Turkey, and beyond to Europe."
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